BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think it is time for the obvs thread...... Big Frosty, you're in a prime spot.....bring us some mojo. I think you need to start the thread. Done deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Ok..... someone with the mojo fire away. I went ahead and started it I feel kind of ICY! Lol. I will be home in time for the storm anyway!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Problem you don't see many good rain events coming from tenn moving into the Foothills with a lot of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is why I didn't make my call off 1 run of the nam. RPM also backing off on the ice totals around I40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is why I didn't make my call off 1 run of the nam. RPM also backing off on the ice totals around I40. how much is it backing down how much is it still showing up in the northern foothills,? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is the only way I can see moisture being on the heavier side anywhere in NC Make me wonder as well if the models have not handle this setup right. But I guess we shall see in the next 24 hours.... honestly I'd bet for slightly colder as well. But in my opinion already a decent and powerful surface trough setting up along and east mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I generally like a GFS/Euro blend on QPF. Hard to trust the NAM precip a lot of times...maybe it's good for following trends close to go time. On temps, the NAM is noticeably warmer than the GFS in NC with respect to the wet-bulb zero line. NAM barely has it crossing into NC in the northern Foothills while the GFS brings it all the way to the NC/SC border. Normally the NAM is colder than the GFS, so this is a bit odd. Maybe the NAM is handling the thermals better though since it should be more suited to handle the CAD specifics, but the GFS is good with damming too. Hard to say. A blend is probably better than either one individually. True Hey neighbor! -- just south of Virgilina in NC. I wonder if there will be enough moisture to give us much ice up in our corner of three NWS forecast areas!? It's interesting having three to choose from --- hard to say which one is closest to getting it right... thoughts? Considering you're location it will be about the same as this area. Interesting though to know there is another member on this board 15 miles up the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 how much is it backing down how much is it still showing up in the northern foothills,? MUCH less on the RPM if you check Brad Panovich's FB even up there too. WxSouth explains the fairly weak event if you want to read up on the nam there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 MUCH less on the RPM if you check Brad Panovich's FB even up there too. WxSouth explains the fairly weak event if you want to read up on the nam there. Isn't that just an in-house model? Those change by the second, so not much stock put into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 GFS coming in much drier like the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is why I didn't make my call off 1 run of the nam. RPM also backing off on the ice totals around I40. What is your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Is it just me or does it look like this is moving faster than first thought, and that precip gonna be about over with time sun gets here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 What is your call? Non-event. Cancel half the Winter Storm Watches. Limit the icing to Watauga, Ashe, Alleghany, and western Wilkes/Surry. Elsewhere needs to be downgraded to a freezing rain advisory for up to 0.1 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Isn't that just an in-house model? Those change by the second, so not much stock put into that. no no no. These short range models are what you use now. Trend is to the nam. Anything we hear about wet trends is way up in VA where we have a few posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 no no no. These short range models are what you use now. Trend is to the nam. Anything we hear about wet trends is way up in VA where we have a few posters. I understand the short range models, such as RAP, RUC, HHHR, but what is this RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Is it just me or does it look like this is moving faster than first thought, and that precip gonna be about over with time sun gets here? There are two separate systems. The moisture you are seeing on the radar right now is not part of the cad event that has been talked about. There will be another system coming from the SE tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I understand the short range models, such as RAP, RUC, HHHR, but what is this RPM? Short term inhouse models that TV stations use. Brad Panovich, WXII12. and other use it when its gets into range to my knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Hopefully when Wilkes forecast verifies he will be kind enough to post us some backyard pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 There are two separate systems. The moisture you are seeing on the radar right now is not part of the cad event that has been talked about. There will be another system coming from the SE tomorrow night. Ahh gotcha thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Short term inhouse models that TV stations use. Brad Panovich and WXII12 uses it when its gets into range to my knowledge. That's what I thought. Those in house models change per second. The short range models that are good to events are not even in range yet, most of those only go out to 15-21 hours. I agree that the RAP, RUC, and HHHR are good to use when they get into their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Non-event. Cancel half the Winter Storm Watches. Limit the icing to Watauga, Ashe, Alleghany, and western Wilkes/Surry. Elsewhere needs to be downgraded to a freezing rain advisory for up to 0.1 . don't tell me I started a useless obs thread? Dang it! I've been keeping up with Robert on all his updates, I knew he been riding the nam and it's probably going to pay off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Hopefully when Wilkes forecast verifies he will be kind enough to post us some backyard pics. Lol... he thinks he is so clever.. on another note its a shame this ridge wont allow the cold air to entrench itself deeper with the STJ going strong for the next few days, could have been a nice event for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 don't tell me I started a useless obs thread? Dang it! I've been keeping up with Robert on all his updates, I knew he been riding the nam and it's probably going to pay off. Not a useless thread, just a lot of 33-35 and light rain/drizzle and a few ppl starring at the car roofs waiting for a pellet of sleet to bounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Isn't that just an in-house model? Those change by the second, so not much stock put into that. Yes, it is an in-house model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Ok, so things are trending drier below N VA. Why does the moisture look to be going North right into a high in PA. I always thought a High to close by would suppress the moisture South. I know that is what has happened several times here in NC in the past when a high was in VA the moisture would stay below NC in GA and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 That's what I thought. Those in house models change per second. The short range models that are good to events are not even in range yet, most of those only go out to 15-21 hours. I agree that the RAP, RUC, and HHHR are good to use when they get into their range. This particular one doesn't change per second I would classify it as more of a short range model. Still a minor to moderate event in places but not around I40. Need to be closer to Boone or Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 don't tell me I started a useless obs thread? Dang it! I've been keeping up with Robert on all his updates, I knew he been riding the nam and it's probably going to pay off. I'm talking about my backyard around I40. The extreme northern foothill counties may have more reason to report obs if they manage 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm talking about my backyard around I40. The extreme northern foothill counties may have more reason to report obs if they manage 0.25 To be fair, our locations are different and even though we are both relative close to I-40, my location is wedge up against the blue ridge which tends to be ideal for CAD and is usually under done on the models, so like you, I am usually speaking for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 GFS coming in much drier like the NAM... Now I think we have a solution to work with. To be fair, our locations are different and even though we are both relative close to I-40, my location is wedge up against the blue ridge which tends to be ideal for CAD and is usually under done on the models, so like you, I am usually speaking for my backyard. I could see that don't have all the knowledge on microclimates so wouldn't disagree there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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