Disc Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Probably need to now then; there's a couple of us tracking the front through south Virginia. **as I type looks to setup right near Roanoke, then SE to between Farmville and South Hill, and then to Wakefield. This is from 8pm observations. I'm sitting right at 70. Locations E/NE by 10-20 miles are 10-15 degrees colder already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm sitting right at 70. Locations E/NE by 10-20 miles are 10-15 degrees colder already. These fronts act more like a back door front when they first push through(front orients from NW to SE). I think the drag of the mountains allows the front to push in faster in eastern / flatter areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 39 in Castleton Va. Near Front Royal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Lynchburg down to 47,Martinsville is still 72. I'm sitting right at 70. Locations E/NE by 10-20 miles are 10-15 degrees colder already. Im slightly cooler than martinsville at 65 currently. Winds have begun to change here as well so the front is near or already passed through here. But under a WSW for freezing rain with the potential of .5" 76 today and under a warning for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Here's a map for any lurkers in southern and SW Virginia. Keep in mind this station is VERY conservative when it comes to their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 0Z NAM has initialized. Here's to it continuing it's wet trend from 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 i know it is a different from than the one bringing in the wedge, but there is another one in nw ga. temps in the upper 60s ahead of the front and dropping to the low 50s just behind it, a lot of the highs were at or the low 70s. and ne ga and the upstate are caught in the middle lol. looks like the backdoor front is doing something similar in western nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Everything looking pretty similar thru 24 in regards to moisture and 2m setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 75 in CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Hr 30 moisture is looking more northwest once again concentrated over eastern TN rather than NE GA as depicted on 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Hr 33 has a colder look with 2m's at VA/NC border compared to just barely past my neck of the woods. Moisture axis is definitely more northwest again with some pretty solid moisture over TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 i know it is a different from than the one bringing in the wedge, but there is another one in nw ga. temps in the upper 60s ahead of the front and dropping to the low 50s just behind it, a lot of the highs were at or the low 70s. and ne ga and the upstate are caught in the middle lol. looks like the backdoor front is doing something similar in western nc Make me wonder as well if the models have not handle this setup right. But I guess we shall see in the next 24 hours.... honestly I'd bet for slightly colder as well. But in my opinion already a decent and powerful surface trough setting up along and east mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 To me it looks like I-85/I-40 and to the NW to NC mtns. Thanks packbacker... BTW, the back of our farm is in Person County, NC is in a WSW... 1 mile up the road, in Halifax County, VA it's a WSW. Across the road in Granville County, NC, not even a Hazardous Weather Statement. LOL. Take care all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Hard to bet against the Nam this close to the event. My guess is Robert is betting on the Nam! In regards to amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Thanks DaculaWeather - that maps shows it better than i said it Make me wonder as well if the models have not handle this setup right. But I guess we shall see in the next 24 hours.... honestly I'd bet for slightly colder as well. But in my opinion already a decent and powerful surface trough setting up along and east mountains.. Already a good surface trough axis from RIC to ATL i dont know if i recall this situation (at least not in recent memory). usually we just have the colder air building in from the ne (a cold front moving in from the nw)...this time there seems to be a squeeze play. not sure if there is thunder in the line, but its holding together as it moves into ne ga (i guess i will find out soon enough lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Mr. Burns wins again The Ptype radar makes it look like nw Ala got missed. Any reports from over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 11 Degree temp drop in the last hour with heavy rain coming down here in asheville right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Very impressive 33 hr simulated radar. Nam still gives .5-1.0" of liquid thru 48 even with the funky model depiction where it looks like everything is northwest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 You've got to love the drama of the south and weather. You've got some that have been hammered with winter weather, I've been sweating working on the car in the 70's, I'll be getting rain, and some will maybe be seeing ice soon...oh, and there's thunder too, for good measure And it's not winter yet. I mean you've got sun angle, and ground temps, and wooly worms, predictions for, predictions against...and in the end everybody is getting something whether they like it or not, lol. Whatever this is, it beats the heck out of summer! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iRoll Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 In NW GA just outside Chattanooga and our temp has dropped extremely fast from 54 to 42 with a forecast low of 38. i know it is a different from than the one bringing in the wedge, but there is another one in nw ga. temps in the upper 60s ahead of the front and dropping to the low 50s just behind it, a lot of the highs were at or the low 70s. and ne ga and the upstate are caught in the middle lol. looks like the backdoor front is doing something similar in western nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Thanks packbacker... BTW, the back of our farm is in Person County, NC is in a WSW... 1 mile up the road, in Halifax County, VA it's a WSW. Across the road in Granville County, NC, not even a Hazardous Weather Statement. LOL. Take care all. You near Virgilina or highway 96? Thanks DaculaWeather - that maps shows it better than i said it i dont know if i recall this situation (at least not in recent memory). usually we just have the colder air building in from the ne (a cold front moving in from the nw)...this time there seems to be a squeeze play. not sure if there is thunder in the line, but its holding together as it moves into ne ga (i guess i will find out soon enough lol) Right its going to be interesting to see how this plays out maybe warnings and wwa further south and east than first thought. That band of rain is holding good looks wet here later tonight. If the GGEM is right I might be up ship creek without a paddle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 In NW GA just outside Chattanooga and our temp has dropped extremely fast from 54 to 42 with a forecast low of 38. I think it is time for the obvs thread...... Big Frosty, you're in a prime spot.....bring us some mojo. I think you need to start the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 You near Virgilina or highway 96? Right its going to be interesting to see how this plays out maybe warnings and wwa further south and east than first thought. That band of rain is holding good looks wet here later tonight. If the GGEM is right I might be up ship creek without a paddle. wouldnt that be nice lol. its hard not to be a little optimistic since low temps for sat. have been dropped a little more to the mid 30s and rain. mby is in one of the better ne ga cad locations apparently (who knew when i moved here and i have seen more than a couple of times just a tad more push of cold air can give a little glaze here. in any event as tony said this has not been a dull period of weather - you never know in the se too bad the mtns hold back the cold air a little for ne ga and the upstate. those colder temps would be useful for cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Bastardi says NAM will bust with this one We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Bastardi says NAM will bust with this one We'll see! Which way??..... more precip than modeled or colder temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I generally like a GFS/Euro blend on QPF. Hard to trust the NAM precip a lot of times...maybe it's good for following trends close to go time. On temps, the NAM is noticeably warmer than the GFS in NC with respect to the wet-bulb zero line. NAM barely has it crossing into NC in the northern Foothills while the GFS brings it all the way to the NC/SC border. Normally the NAM is colder than the GFS, so this is a bit odd. Maybe the NAM is handling the thermals better though since it should be more suited to handle the CAD specifics, but the GFS is good with damming too. Hard to say. A blend is probably better than either one individually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 You near Virgilina or highway 96? Hey neighbor! -- just south of Virgilina in NC. I wonder if there will be enough moisture to give us much ice up in our corner of three NWS forecast areas!? It's interesting having three to choose from --- hard to say which one is closest to getting it right... thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think it is time for the obvs thread...... Big Frosty, you're in a prime spot.....bring us some mojo. I think you need to start the thread. Big Frosty: I would but I'm on vacation in Pigeon Forge Tennessee right now going home probably late tomorrow night if it looks serious enough? was going home Sunday Ok..... someone with the mojo fire away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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