superjames1992 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Interesting. However, I'm not to sure if it will even be mentioned by the people riding the 12z nam (Brad Panovich/WxSouth/Raysweather/others) because its a drastic change to just make a call on it right away. I think it would be smart to wait and see at least (1) run (0z suit you mentioned) match it. Even with that said, the other models are fairly wet. Bares watching the 0z tonight. I think the 18z NAM coming in line with the other modeling was enough to get RAH to pull the trigger on the Winter Storm Watch. Anyways, here is the text: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 412 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 ...SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... .AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEND A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME... A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE 32 DEGREES AS THE THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE SUNDAY EVENING. NCZ007-021>023-070515- /O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0002.131208T0900Z-131209T0100Z/ PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM 412 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS... PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION. * HAZARD TYPES... FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND POWER LINES. * TIMING...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. * MAIN IMPACTS...ICE IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND POWER LINES. THERE MAY BE POWER OUTAGES. ROADS MAY ALSO BECOME HAZARDOUS... ESPECIALLY THE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICING POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $ BADGETT/MWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think we will get something more like what Allen has posted. RAH is basically saying the same thing. The one difference is Allen's map has us with .25 which would be boarder line Winter Storm criteria. RAH is only saying brief period of Freezing rain. I think it will be closer to .25 for us with the way the models are coming in wetter and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Absolutely... this is the correct thread for pics of this storm. Obion County, Tn, about 1 pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 One more, roads pretty covered countywide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Blacksburg has the Boone area changing from freezing rain to straight rain at 10 am in the morning. Is this correct, or am I missing something? I thought from what I was seeing and reading that especially for the eastern facing slopes this was going to drag on throughout Sunday and switch over Sunday evening to Sunday night? Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Blacksburg has the Boone area changing from freezing rain to straight rain at 10 am in the morning. Is this correct, or am I missing something? I thought from what I was seeing and reading that especially for the eastern facing slopes this was going to drag on throughout Sunday and switch over Sunday evening to Sunday night? Any thoughts? I always thought Boone was in an area that typically warms in this type of CAD setup, with the freezing occurring moreso along the Blue Ridge escarpment (confined at a lower elevation)...the warm nose is a really deep layer with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Blacksburg has the Boone area changing from freezing rain to straight rain at 10 am in the morning. Is this correct, or am I missing something? I thought from what I was seeing and reading that especially for the eastern facing slopes this was going to drag on throughout Sunday and switch over Sunday evening to Sunday night? Any thoughts? Blacksburg's newest map just lowered the ice accumulations. Now it has Boone near 0.1. And pockets of nothing for Wilkes/Yadkin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Here is the RPM output from WCNC and Brad P. I think there's something wrong with the time stamp on each image, though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Blacksburg's newest map just lowered the ice accumulations. Now it has Boone near 0.1. And pockets of nothing for Wilkes/Yadkin. If you were to match this with GSP's map it would be a laughable difference. I'd like to know which model they are looking at. And Boone was hit the hardest in Christmas '09 ice storm so they fair well with CAD as well. Boone is much lower elevation than say beech, sugar and the likes, those are the ones that don't fair well with CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Here is the RPM output from WCNC and Brad P. I think there's something wrong with the time stamp on each image, though: I just do not see ice making it down into the upstate as being shown in upper left pic. If the H was stronger where more colder air could be filtered down into this area then I could see it but I thinks temps here will be around 35-36! But who knows cads can do some strange things in these neck of the woods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I just do not see ice making it down into the upstate as being shown in upper left pic. If the H was stronger where more colder air could be filtered down into this area then I could see it but I thinks temps here will be around 35-36! But who knows cads can do some strange things in these neck of the woods!I've been in the Upstate all my life, and I would say they've always underestimated the strength of the NE winds bringing that cold in this area. That being said, I would agree we won't get under 34-35 degrees on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The gfs develops a 1024 high over central VA @hr63 the surface temps are above freezing by then verbatim. But I wonder how much of a difference that would make.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The gfs develops a 1024 high over central VA @hr63 the surface temps are above freezing by then verbatim. But I wonder how much of a difference that would make.. thats quite a bit lower than the 1035-40 hp. if the hp is lower then the cad probably will not be as strong of a push from the ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 John Cessarich (WYFF-TV Greenville SC) just said on his weather segment that there could be moments of rain/freezing rain all the way to the NC/SC border...sounded pretty confident that everyone in the current watch area will get accumulating ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The gfs develops a 1024 high over central VA @hr63 the surface temps are above freezing by then verbatim. But I wonder how much of a difference that would make.. That to me sounds like the GFS wants to develop a meso-high which could help Virginia colder after the intial CAD has developed and starts its retreat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 thats quite a bit lower than the 1035-40 hp. if the hp is lower then the cad probably will not be as strong of a push from the neThe stronger 1030+ high is to the north. It just randomly pops a 1024 after the stronger one moves north. Probably typical gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That to me sounds like the GFS wants to develop a meso-high which could help Virginia colder after the intial CAD has developed and starts its retreat. Yeah that's what I was thinking. Something to watch over the next few runs. Could keep cold/dry air transport longer into the event than currently forcasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Front has got through Lynchburg VA,down to 55 and winds going NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Front has got through Lynchburg VA,down to 55 and winds going NNE. Somewhere between Farmville(50s) and South Hill(70s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That to me sounds like the GFS wants to develop a meso-high which could help Virginia colder after the intial CAD has developed and starts its retreat. That's not uncommon at all. Once the wedge gets established pressures will remain high until the wedge starts breaking down..... then you will see a pressure drop in the damming zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 RaysWeather.Com @raysweather4m Here's a map showing the expected 48-hour temperature change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well I am once again in that interesting situation, due to my location on a county line, where my garage and half of my den and dining room are under a winter storm watch but the rest of my house isn't. In honor of this momentous event I would like to make a Brick comment. How come I can't get a storm in my whole yard? I'm tired of having only half my property get any winter. But if this shifts just a bit south then more of my house will have to watch out for more ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Dang jburns!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Still in the 70's here, but looking on WU, many of the stations just north and east are in the 40's. Going to drop QUICK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well I am once again in that interesting situation, due to my location on a county line, where my garage and half of my den and dining room are under a winter storm watch but the rest of my house isn't. In honor of this momentous event I would like to make a Brick comment. How come I can't get a storm in my whole yard? I'm tired of having only half my property get any winter. But if this shifts just a bit south then more of my house will have to watch out for more ice. Priceless logic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Still in the 70's here, but looking on WU, many of the stations just north and east are in the 40's. Going to drop QUICK.Just got home from work. I feel like I'm on a cruise ship out here with that southerly breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Well I am once again in that interesting situation, due to my location on a county line, where my garage and half of my den and dining room are under a winter storm watch but the rest of my house isn't. In honor of this momentous event I would like to make a Brick comment.How come I can't get a storm in my whole yard? I'm tired of having only half my property get any winter. But if this shifts just a bit south then more of my house will have to watch out for more ice. Hopefully it'll shift south for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Going to be interesting to watch how the cold air filters in tomorrow and where the southern extent of the CAD boundary develops. That will give us an idea of the strength of this air mass. I recommend we start the obvs thread for this event once that process begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Going to be interesting to watch how the cold air filters in tomorrow and where the southern extent of the CAD boundary develops. That will give us an idea of the strength of this air mass. I recommend we start the obvs thread for this event once that process begins. Probably need to now then; there's a couple of us tracking the front through south Virginia. **as I type looks to setup right near Roanoke, then SE to between Farmville and South Hill, and then to Wakefield. This is from 8pm observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Lynchburg down to 47,Martinsville is still 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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