packbacker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Definitely a major ice storm on the VA/NC state line counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 SREF Mean has ZR for WNC for around 6 hours. Add it to the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Definitely a major ice storm on the VA/NC state line counties. I-40 and North for that matter really, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Just looking at hour 51....that's a classic textbook look for cold air damming. Only thing that would seal the deal, would be for the high to be 4mb stronger. It's in a perfect spot and has a good cold source region. If this were January, There would be no doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 They probably post in the midwest subforum Can't blame them, the only thread here relevant to them is labeled as CAD Storms, despite West TN very much being part of the south east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Clay from Jonesboro Arkansas, says 1 inch of sleet/ice (via tennesseewx). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Definitely a major ice storm on the VA/NC state line counties. Person west to TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Person west to TN? To me it looks like I-85/I-40 and to the NW to NC mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The second panel on his map above shows it. Widespread half inch of ice. I wouldn't just say I40 north...there is going to be a sharp cutoff somewhere around there with just a glaze versus warning criteria. Gut feeling is that the northern foothills will see it much worse than areas around Hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The second panel on his map above shows it. Widespread half inch of ice. I wouldn't just say I40 north...there is going to be a sharp cutoff somewhere around there with just a glaze versus warning criteria. Gut feeling is that the northern foothills will see it much worse than areas around Hickory. Agreed, I am kind of thinking Winston-Salem and points west and than north from there will be bad, assuming GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 To me it looks like I-85/I-40 and to the NW to NC mtns. Good call..... that would be my take at this point. Those that live north of I-40 and west of I-85 look to have the greatest chance of seeing ice. Also an area of interest is west of I-77 down to hwy 74. That area is typically prone to ice as well. Just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sleet is starting to mix in across NW TN, looks like the NAM may have been pretty accurate. Some northern counties have been changed from ice storm warning to winter storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Agreed, I am kind of thinking Winston-Salem and points west and than north from there will be bad, assuming GFS is correct. GFS gets dew points down to near or just below 30, for our area, from hour 45 to just before hour 54. For ice would like to see this a little lower but we'll have to see how this actually evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 According to Meteogram output at the Hickory Regional Airport, the 12Z puts out .46 as freezing rain. Solidly in Ice storm warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think most of the Nashville posters are over at TennesseeWX. Amos said he was in town for the event, maybe he'll chime in on some obs. NAM suggests up to a 1/4 inch possible for BNA but they will be right on the border. i'll def post obs today and through the weekend as we should get another round tomorrow night and maybe even Monday night. I'm just northeast of Nashville. We had an almost constant thunderstorm all night with a temp around 36 degrees, After a bit of a break from the rain this morning it has started back up and temp is now 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sleet is starting to mix in across NW TN, looks like the NAM may have been pretty accurate. Some northern counties have been changed from ice storm warning to winter storm warning. I think it's time one of you guys in TN go ahead and make an OBS thread to post pictures and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Just a few degrees difference and people could salvage a nice snow out of this. For example, here's the latest HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 New vid from Brad Panovich. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TJZlUThHMo&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hey Guys here is my update: My forecast reasoning and ideas remain mostly unchanged from yesterday. The models have been doing some oscillating back and forth with regards to the timing of the cooler air coming in Saturday night and also perhaps more important precipitation amount and intensity which will have a lot to do it appears with how strong the wedge sets up Sunday. The NAM, which if you recall yesterday was the coldest and at 12z wettest, is now significantly drier and not as icy. Meanwhile, the GFS and Canadian models show a pretty decent ice event for much of the foothills and piedmont of NC and a significant ice storm for Virginia. The ECMWF is pretty similar to the GFS/Canadian although a little less cold, but not by much. Right now it appears the the NAM is an outlier with its low precip amounts. I think if the model juices up its QPF forecast early Sunday, you will see a cooler solution in subsequent runs. Right now I will make some minor changes to my forecast map. I have decreased the amounts in area A. I will admit that in the NC mountains it will be high varied and locals there know the intricacies of their local climate better than I in these CAD/ice setups. In this area particularly over southern and eastern sections, I think there may be a period of freezing rain Sunday morning with temperatures right at 32. However, any accrual will likely be light with perhaps someone getting a 0.1 inch glaze. I think these areas will change over mid to late Sunday morning. In area B, I think we could see a decent period of freezing rain perhaps 6-12 hours. I think QPF amounts during this time will be in the 0.25 to 0.33 range and this could lead to up to a 0.25 inch glaze in some areas. Particularly from HKY through parts of the Triad and Burlington area. Keep in mind though ground/road temperatures will be coming off of temperatures near 80 today so roads may be spared significant issues, except bridges. However, there could be buildup on branches in trees and some downed limbs if the 0.25 inch ice glaze is realized. This area include the Triangle, Triad, and Hickory area. In area C, this area stands a chance at a decent ice event with amounts possibly up to a 0.5 inch glaze. This area will hang ont to freezing rain through the day Sunday and into the evening with perhaps a changeover occurring late Sunday night and early Monday am. However, this could be an area with some problems from the ice even on roads. In area D, which include parts of the Va piedmont/foothills we could see significant ice with amounts over 0.5 inch. Right now, to me, this does not look like a historic ice storm, mostly due to only moderate QPF expectations, but it could be significant for parts of Va and parts of NC that normall do well in these events. I will update on twitter @RaleighWx as need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Just a few degrees difference and people could salvage a nice snow out of this. For example, here's the latest HRRR: How reliable is the HRRR in this time frame? that shows a couple of inches of snow for BNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Great post, Raleigh. Makes sense for the NAM to be the outlier now. And if this shifts just a but south then more of NC will have to watch out for more ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Thanks Allen for your update it's nice to see you keeping us updated with your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 How reliable is the HRRR in this time frame? that shows a couple of inches of snow for BNA In my personal opinion, it has a pretty good track record within about 10 hours. With this setup one or two degrees changes everything so who knows how it will handle such fine details. If I were you, I'd be slightly encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 15z HRRR total snow through 8pm tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Brad's entire video only discusses the NAM. Not a word on the other models. He is telling everyone to prepare if you border Wilkes County. Nothing about along I40 and just north really. Maybe he will add those areas in tomorrow tho who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 15z HRRR total snow through 8pm tonight Allan, Does the HRRR handle precip types well? The HRRR shows a couple of inches of snow for BNA and that's quite a bit more than most models which show mostly freezing rain potential with maybe a little sleet mixing in before ending?? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not sure this is where this goes if not please delete. But this ? Is about this event, what would exactly have to happen for this cad to slide deeper into the upstate and cause ice here? Is it the HP that would have to be stronger to push colder air S and W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yeah, the more I look into this, I feel like I'm in the bullseye area here in North Carolina (Boone). It's definitely going to be interesting on Sunday. Especially with final exams coming next week, I hope power doesn't go out up here. I'll for sure let you all know what happens up this way. Last NAM run threw out .7" of ice, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Allan, Does the HRRR handle precip types well? The HRRR shows a couple of inches of snow for BNA and that's quite a bit more than most models which show mostly freezing rain potential with maybe a little sleet mixing in before ending?? TIA The models that output snow accumulation, I have noticed, seem to group at least sleet in with that accumulation. So it is always good to look at modeled snow accumulation in conjunction with soundings and other parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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