Disc Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Severe weather breaking out in VA. Signs of rotation. This is mostly in the Winter Storm Watch area. Yep, rumbles of thunder here and just went through a very heavy downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I believe in our area we will see rain turning to zr Sunday morning then turning back to rain Sunday evening. Maybe a light glazing but no serious problems. Not worried about the roads, just if we get more than .25 on the trees and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The NAM looks warmer. 850s are blazing by hr 54, too. EDIT: FWIW, Blacksburg looks to have put their entire viewing area under a Winter Storm Watch this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM looks even more dry than 6z runs. Even leaves the MA with very little in terms of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Huge bust potential if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Huge bust potential if the NAM is right. Unfortunately, no surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Unfortunately, no surprise there.how can there be a bust if I ice was never forecast for your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Ice Storm in full effect in Paris, TN. Surfaces and vegetation are glazed. Temp is 28 with some decent wind gusts. Family is keeping me posted, pics to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Only a light glaze of ZR so far here in Obion County (about 40 miles west of Paris), sleet is coming down heavy with winds gusting to around 20 mph.....still a long way to go though. Power lines and trees are holding their own, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not worried about the roads, just if we get more than .25 on the trees and power lines. I don't see us ending up w/ 1/4 inch on trees and power lines. Maybe in the NW part of the state but our area looks to be minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 how can there be a bust if I ice was never forecast for your area? Models showed ice before. Allan Huffman called for a glaze to .25 yesterday and said the totals could be increased. Now it looks like it might be less or nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 how can there be a bust if I ice was never forecast for your area?What happened to the NAM and CMC doing the best during CAD events? I see they have caved to the European and GFS. This is proof that people were hugging the models that showed the coldest solutions.Notice all the models were consistently showing a significant event for Dallas and look what is happening there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 What happened to the NAM and CMC doing the best during CAD events? I see they have caved to the European and GFS. This is proof that people were hugging the models that showed the coldest solutions. CMC hasn't caved to anybody. Still showing same solution it did 7 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 What happened to the NAM and CMC doing the best during CAD events? I see they have caved to the European and GFS. This is proof that people were hugging the models that showed the coldest solutions. Notice all the models were consistently showing a significant event for Dallas and look what is happening there. How has the NAM caved to the GFS? In fact, they've each gone to the opposite conclusion: The NAM is now dry and the GFS is wet, yet both are still quite cold. The CMC has remained consistent in its portrayal of "Armageddon" ice totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 How has the NAM caved to the GFS? In fact, they've each gone to the opposite conclusion: The NAM is now dry and the GFS is wet, yet both are still quite cold. The CMC has remained consistent in its portrayal of "Armageddon" ice totals. It'll probably end up somewhere in the middle of the NAM and GFS. That's usually how it plays out, somewhere in the middle of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 What happened to the NAM and CMC doing the best during CAD events? I see they have caved to the European and GFS. This is proof that people were hugging the models that showed the coldest solutions. Notice all the models were consistently showing a significant event for Dallas and look what is happening there. The NAM handles surface temps well during CAD events. And is notoriously bad with QPF amounts. The GFS,CMC, and EURO all support an icing event in northern/ NW NC. Nobody's hugging a specific model. Obviously as winter weather lovers we talk about a model that shows a more extreme solution. But the idea of a possibly significant ice storm for CAD areas of NC into VA has been on the models for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 CMC hasn't caved to anybody. Still showing same solution it did 7 days ago Yeah, it's been very consistent......it's anybody's guess as to the level of icing at this point. We have known all along that this one's going to be close. As myself and many others on the forum have pointed out, it will depend on the placement and strength of that high to our north. That's what we should be focused on....... the precip totals are secondary at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 12z GFS has initialized....... we are getting down to the time when these runs become more important and the trends of the models over next 24 hours will determine the final outcome of Sunday's weather. Will the Canadian show a warmer solution or will the others trend colder? That should be resolved today or tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Event is underway in TN who is going to start the obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The NAM handles surface temps well during CAD events. And is notoriously bad with QPF amounts. The GFS,CMC, and EURO all support an icing event in northern/ NW NC. Nobody's hugging a specific model. Obviously as winter weather lovers we talk about a model that shows a more extreme solution. But the idea of a possibly significant ice storm for CAD areas of NC into VA has been on the models for days. I guess the best thing to do is to take in account all the strengths and weaknesses of the models and then base the forecast on a blend of that. So, the NAM handles the temps better, then we rely on it more for the temps. The other models are better on getting the amount of precip right, so we look at it more for that. And if you blend them all together, it looks like there is potential for icing here. Now, I think showing potential is the best they can really do. The way it actually turns out could go either way here because a lot of times there is something that throws a hitch in things once the event starts that usually means less of a winter event. That is why it is so hard to forecast winter events in my area. The models show the potential, but it can end up going either way. Usually, it ends up being less of an event, though, than it being more of a bigger deal than forecasted. It is really rare that the forecast is exactly on point. I think that is why the local mets here try to give themselves some leeway and make sure to talk about potential, the possibility, and say things like if this or that happens when it comes to winter weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Event is underway in TN who is going to start the obs thread? That should probably wait until later tonight or in the morning. When the cold air begins reaching our east Tenn. posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 What happened to the NAM and CMC doing the best during CAD events? I see they have caved to the European and GFS. This is proof that people were hugging the models that showed the coldest solutions. Notice all the models were consistently showing a significant event for Dallas and look what is happening there. Bottom line. Read more, post less. It seems you only post to take some pot shot at those who are actually posting about the storm (well outside of Brick). The fact is, you live in Waycross GA, your experience with cold air damming probably consists of a visit up to Athens one time. It's very simple experience tells us that typically models do not handle CAD well and often it is colder than what is being depicted. It seems most have taken a very realistic approach to this system with many feeling there won't be anything major. However there are real reasons to take this seriously as it could over perform. Again, read more and please post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That should probably wait until later tonight or in the morning. When the cold air begins reaching our east Tenn. posters. Why? East TN will get nothing but rain from this. West TN is getting hammered with ice right now and will for most of the day with a second round tomorrow into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS coming wetter compared to 6z but not much colder out to 60 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 West TN is getting hammered with ice right now and will for most of the day with a second round tomorrow into Sunday. I thought we had some Nashville posters. 35 degrees there its on the doorstep for a little icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wow, precip is definitely suppressed ala CMC, I bet Ji is pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I thought we had some Nashville posters. 35 degrees there its on the doorstep for a little icing. They probably post in the midwest subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS coming wetter compared to 6z but not much colder out to 60 now. HP sitting right over PA will certainly suppress qpf south, probably why it's much wetter. Sure the MA crowd is loving that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I thought we had some Nashville posters. 35 degrees there its on the doorstep for a little icing. I think most of the Nashville posters are over at TennesseeWX. Amos said he was in town for the event, maybe he'll chime in on some obs. NAM suggests up to a 1/4 inch possible for BNA but they will be right on the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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