swva Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I agree. I still haven't been able to lean towards one or the other. Of course the 0z GGEM comes in with a nasty ice storm solution again. Temperatures look set and good.. Amount of precip and type still HUGE question. Haven't seen the GGEM... QPF look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 0z gfs precip totals are not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 0z gfs precip totals are not that bad. Is that total QPF? Some of that is from the rain tomorrow and tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Temperatures look set and good.. Amount of precip and type still HUGE question. Haven't seen the GGEM... QPF look good? QPF looks really good. Atleast 1" or so from what I can see.. All of it is frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 CMC Precip Loop: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=000&map=na〈=fr CMC P-Type Loop: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html COLD and WET. Consistent Canadian. Perhaps consistently wrong, but consistent nevertheless. EDIT: Keep in mind most of that ZR falls with temperatures in the 20s. That would be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Is that total QPF? Some of that is from the rain tomorrow and tomorrow night. never said it was all ice lol but just saying it's not as dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 One possible good thing with the west TN event, the NAM has been coming in with about half the ice that the GFS has for a few runs in a row, replacing it with sleet. It's about HRRR time, let's see how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 CMC Precip Loop: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=000&map=na〈=fr CMC P-Type Loop: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html COLD and WET. Consistent Canadian. Perhaps consistently wrong, but consistent nevertheless. I like consistency ...sorry for the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The cold is definitely a bit faster/deeper. My low was predicted at 51. It's currently 43 with brisk NW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think a freezing drizzle storm would be a better word for this storm than a freezing rain or ice storm at this point. Trends are key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That might have been the wettest Euro run in awhile. Pretty good thump of ZR between hrs 60-66 (Sunday morning). 0.2-0.25" of ZR falls Sunday morning alone, so that is a pretty serious time period (and another 0.15-0.2" of ZR falls in the period thereafter). Looks like roughly 0.5" of ZR in the northern NC counties, if I am reading it right. Temperatures are pretty borderline (but still below 32 for the most part I-40 and north), but we can possibly assume that the Euro's warm surface bias in CAD situations is in play. 850s aren't even close, so it's purely ZR as expected. The surface cold layer looks too thin for IP to me. It's drier up towards DC than the GFS and NAM, evidently, and Ji isn't happy about it, LOL. EDIT: I signed up for the free 7-day trial at http://www.eurowx.com, which is the only reason I am seeing the maps. I don't know if I'm actually going to continue using it after the trial is over, but it's interesting and you don't even have to provide CC information to use the trial (just an email will do). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 345 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 ...ICE STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT NORTHERN FOOTHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... .A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...USHERING IN THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL...WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL CHANNEL COLD AIR SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. NCZ033-049-050-501>503-505-062100- /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0008.131208T0500Z-131209T0500Z/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE 345 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS CALDWELL COUNTY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN PRODUCING DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE. * TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY KNOCK DOWN LIMBS AND POWER LINES...CREATE POWER OUTAGES...AND MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S FOR THE MUCH OF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. * WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP. && $$ GERAPETRITIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Our local meterologists aren't really too excited about this. They're still showing lows of 33 on Sunday and saying maybe a light glaze on some trees, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think a freezing drizzle storm would be a better word for this storm than a freezing rain or ice storm at this point. Trends are key. The Euro does not agree in the least. It shows plenty of QPF.....this will not be a "drizzle" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The Euro does not agree in the least. It shows plenty of QPF.....this will not be a "drizzle" event. My paid map subscription ran out. How much QPF does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The Euro does not agree in the least. It shows plenty of QPF.....this will not be a "drizzle" event. I'm just referring to what WxSouth said. If it is wrong and some of the other models are right...it will be a major BUST in North Carolina and parts of southern VA. I have not reviewed the latest runs...splitting tenths of a inch here...which is a major deal tho see the reason for a Winter Storm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looks like we are out of the running... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC714 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-071215-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-714 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 06Z GFS this morning looks quite robust on QPF and low temps for Hickory. The surface freezing line appears south of Hickory for almost 12 hours, from 12:00 GMT Sunday to 0:00 GMT Monday. During that time, roughly 0.5 inch of QPF is displayed by the model. This is all based off the Wunderground maps. The 06Z NAM is much drier, yet even colder and holds surface temps below zero until around 9:00 GMT Monday. The 00Z ECMWF is the warmest of the lot, with Hickory right on the freezing line for most of the period. It's QPF output is wetter than the NAM but not as prolific as the GFS. The Euro looks a lot like 33 and rain for Hickory. The meteogram for Hickory really shows the gung-ho nature of the last two runs of the GFS with regards to ZR. Both the 00Z and 06Z runs this morning would indicate pretty damaging ice accumulations for Hickory, and the more recent run of the two is worse than the prior, which leads me to wonder what the 12Z might indicate. Obviously, the NAM is backing way off on the QPF, though. The best case scenario for KHKY (if you want ice) would be to have the NAM temps blended with the GFS QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro last night gives around 1 inch of qpf for NC between now and Monday. It looks to be patchy rain with drizzle in between...a pretty classic ZR event if you ask me. That being said it's night and day between it and the NAM. I would say on the Euro a good .50 - .75 falls on most of NC between Sunday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Raleigh thinks advisory criteria in the upcoming shifts for Piedmont Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro last night gives around 1 inch of qpf for NC between now and Monday. It looks to be patchy rain with drizzle in between...a pretty classic ZR event if you ask me. That being said it's night and day between it and the NAM. I would say on the Euro a good .50 - .75 falls on most of NC between Sunday and Tuesday. Is that .50 to .75 all frozen or just liquid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Good point from Ray at Raysweather. Things will be warming from the 'top down' on Sunday. Late Saturday night and Sunday, warm/moist air will overrun cold air at the surface. Freezing rain will develop late Saturday night continuing into Sunday. Freezing rain will continue well into Sunday night in areas on the eastern edge of the Appalachians right along the Blue Ridge--much more icing there. However, as one goes west and higher in elevation, freezing rain will change to just rain sooner (Sunday afternoon). To illustrate the difference across the mountain region, by Sunday evening, the mountaintops of Beech, Roan, and Mt Rogers will be 10-15 degrees WARMER than Roaring Gap (and other spots right along the Blue Ridge). Temperatures warm Sunday night changing all precipitation across the region to just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Good point from Ray at Raysweather. Things will be warming from the 'top down' on Sunday. Late Saturday night and Sunday, warm/moist air will overrun cold air at the surface. Freezing rain will develop late Saturday night continuing into Sunday. Freezing rain will continue well into Sunday night in areas on the eastern edge of the Appalachians right along the Blue Ridge--much more icing there. However, as one goes west and higher in elevation, freezing rain will change to just rain sooner (Sunday afternoon). To illustrate the difference across the mountain region, by Sunday evening, the mountaintops of Beech, Roan, and Mt Rogers will be 10-15 degrees WARMER than Roaring Gap (and other spots right along the Blue Ridge). Temperatures warm Sunday night changing all precipitation across the region to just rain. So which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 So which is it? Both. East of the Blue Ridge and then the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 My paid map subscription ran out. How much QPF does it show? Go to wunderground.com/wundermap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Is that .50 to .75 all frozen or just liquid? Liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 So which is it? In the mountains: To Rain EAST of the Blue Ridge (generally east of the parkway along the escarpment), Freezing rain continues into Sunday night. As usual, many micro-climates in the High Country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 So it looks like what will happen with regards to ice or rain and how much is still up in the air. Euro, GFS, and NAM all have something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 So it looks like what will happen with regards to ice or rain and how much is still up in the air. Euro, GFS, and NAM all have something different. I believe in our area we will see rain turning to zr Sunday morning then turning back to rain Sunday evening. Maybe a light glazing but no serious problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Severe weather breaking out in VA. Signs of rotation. This is mostly in the Winter Storm Watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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