CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Nam is rolling......Let's see if it holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It will be interesting to see what the models have tonight at 00z. This will be a very important run to see if we trend towards a cooler and wetter solution or a warmer and drier solution or a combination of this. I am hoping for a drier solution, because I do not want any ice. Snow, sure. Ice, no. We do not need an ice storm anywhere in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Out to 12h...... high looks a little stronger. Cold air pushing farther down and slightly farther east than 18z. Edit: 850mb-1000mb 1320m thickness line is about 50 miles east of the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It wasn't on the point and click it just has rain. It was on the weather radio and just giving the forecast for the upstate, said ZR. nice! no ice in the forecast here (yet haha) but the temps have been lowered quite a bit from the previous forecast i saw. has highs in low 40s and lows in the 30s...so you could see some ice It will be interesting to see what the models have tonight at 00z. This will be a very important run to see if we trend towards a cooler and wetter solution or a warmer and drier solution or a combination of this. I am hoping for a drier solution, because I do not want any ice. Snow, sure. Ice, no. We do not need an ice storm anywhere in the southeast. well hoping or wanting doesnt do much (we all wish it did) and everyone likes different kinds of winter wx. we cant change it, only enjoy (or grimace in agony as we are like 5 miles from the 32 line lol). if there is going to be one there will, and it might as well be viewed as at least interesting. last big one here was 2005 and no power for several days. it was still an amazing sight to see (and yes i will take anything frozen over rain). start hoping for a drier solution will start screwing up everyone lol. watching the potential for an inch to our west, that is sort of nerve wracking and no i wouldnt want that imby cos of the damage to the trees (have a fireplace so can handle no power) however, if it were to ever happen i am sure it would be a sight to behold for a weather fan Out to 12h...... high looks a little stronger. Cold air pushing farther down and slightly farther east than 18z. any way you can get that farther sw lol. at this point i like a stronger hp - the stronger it is the better cad potential for most. that is one of the things i will be keeping an eye on the next few days, just how strong it ends up being. the placement looked pretty good so as long as it stays in that general area, a higher trend to the hp could make things more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The front looks to be moving a little faster on the 00z NAM. I'm nitpicking. There's a 1044 mb HP up in the Dakotas still at hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The front looks to be moving a little faster on the 00z NAM. I'm nitpicking. There's a 1044 mb HP up in the Dakotas still at hr 30. Just about to post that...... Also, note the SE ridge is weakening and loosing its' grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Stay safe, WTWx! Glad you've got the wood up, an inch will put you on wood heat pretty quick I learned my lesson, and always have propane space heaters, as well as the wood stove....and now a generator. And good car batteries, and power inverters....I hate doing without tv and the inner webs...not knowing what's going on. I'm not sure about the cable. The lines down my street are underground, but up on the main street they are over head. Lose a few phone poles, and out goes the inner webs and tv, even if I have my modem, and laptop on the car batteries...and so far I haven't been able connect to Comcast's nearest hot spot on the I pad. I don't think Apple has this wifi thing down good yet, lol. Sometimes it's hard to get a connection on the other side of the house. I'm glad you've prepared!! Let's just hope there isn't any big wind. Tony Thanks for the advice and concern....Ironic that you mention, I have two deep cycle marine batteries paired with inverters for the electronics....no propane but I have two cords of seasoned wood for situations such as this. Talking to folks at work today and it seems that so many underestimate these events....I wish more people respected/understood what can happen with the weather. Many lessons learned from 09' but at the same time so many have quickly forgotten. Not to mention many people are still cleaning up in areas just to my north from the severe weather outbreak on Nov 17th...(i.e Brookport,IL) .....my heart goes out to those people. Glad you mentioned the wind....gusting to 20 mph here now...in the other ice storms I have experienced, the wind was calm....I can't help but wonder how the wind fields will affect the infrastructure here. Post frontal winds will obviously have a negative impact, but how about winds during the duration of an ice storm? Help/hinder icing? Would like to hear some expert opinions on this. Hope I didn't stray off topic- if need be I can post later obs/pics in a separate thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hr 39 still has a 1044mb high whereas hr 45 was at 1040 4mb stronger pretty awesome high pressure right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It will be interesting to see what the models have tonight at 00z. This will be a very important run to see if we trend towards a cooler and wetter solution or a warmer and drier solution or a combination of this. I am hoping for a drier solution, because I do not want any ice. Snow, sure. Ice, no. We do not need an ice storm anywhere in the southeast. The next 3 model cycles should all but seal the narrative for this event. I'm done chasing the perfect pattern, ain't gonna happen and when it does still no guarantees. So for me it's trying to find a silver lining and see albeit minor frozen precip for the 3rd time this season. After this one I'm ready to chase opportunity 4 a week from today. Beggars can't be choosers so the nickel and dime events will have to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 And of course right after I post tho hr 42 compared to hr 48 are pretty identical to my naked eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 2m temps deff look like they get cooler quicker. Compared to the 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The DP's are a smidge higher, really just curious what the precip looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Definitely not as cold as the 12z run, looks like we stopped with the cold trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 2ms are definitely warmer at hr 60, though I wonder if that is due to less precip arriving by then or less cold air in general. There's a lot more precipitation in southern KY this run. EDIT: 2ms look about the same by hr 63 as more precip enters. It might be drier, but we'll see how it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Pack I would say the precip at 60 may look even a little more paltry compared to 18z well see how it pans out at 63 and 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The NAM is giving regions in southern KY that only picked up a tenth or two of QPF close to an inch of QPF this run. Yeah, Buddy, Roanoke gets even less QPF than N NC this run. It almost manages to completely miss you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM= SHAFT. We've seen it do this today however whereas the other models were pretty in line with one another for a general .3-.5 so I'm not discounting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Pack I would say the precip at 60 may look even a little more paltry compared to 18z well see how it pans out at 63 and 66 Lol, we have the ultimate precip hole. Roanoke couldn't be more squarely in the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Lol, we have the ultimate precip hole. Roanoke couldn't be more squarely in the center. LOL…I wouldn't fret, I would trust the Euro precip output over the NAM's, IMO. Although, maybe you should fret, going to be an icy Sunday for you :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Lol, we have the ultimate precip hole. Roanoke couldn't be more squarely in the center. James, Disc idk if I buy this not because it doesn't show what I'm hoping for but just because it's different than some of the other guidance hard to go against the Canadian models right now but if GFS starts trending toward the NAM I will start to become concerned until then jump on the NAM is garbage bandwagon lol that was about the worst run precip wise yet geesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 James, Disc idk if I buy this not because it doesn't show what I'm hoping for but just because it's different than some of the other guidance hard to go against the Canadian models right now but if GFS starts trending toward the NAM I will start to become concerned until then jump on the NAM is garbage bandwagon lol that was about the worst run precip wise yet geesh Not unless your in the MA, I bet they are going nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Lol they are going nuts just happened to take a peek DC gets a pretty good thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Glad you mentioned the wind....gusting to 20 mph here now...in the other ice storms I have experienced, the wind was calm....I can't help but wonder how the wind fields will affect the infrastructure here. Post frontal winds will obviously have a negative impact, but how about winds during the duration of an ice storm? Help/hinder icing? I think the biggest thing with the winds would be the increased chances for power outages - i.e. downed trees and power lines when combining ice + winds. The SPIA Ice Accumulation Index that is being used factors in wind speeds. http://www.spia-index.com/images/indexIce.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think the biggest thing with the winds would be the increased chances for power outages - i.e. downed trees and power lines when combining ice + winds. The SPIA Ice Accumulation Index that is being used factors in wind speeds. http://www.spia-index.com/images/indexIce.jpg 2 inches or so of rain prior to the ice probably won't help the tree situation either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 00z GFS is colder and maybe a little wetter than 18z out to hr 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 00z GFS is colder and maybe a little wetter than 18z out to hr 66. Agreed, well for west of 85 in NC. ROA get's slammed, the MA gets slammed, it's going to get ugly for them. For RDU some light icing looks possible, for GSO/INT and points NW it could be dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looks decent for the triad. I'd say warning criteria for .25" zr. Still time to trend a bit. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Agreed, well for west of 85 in NC. ROA get's slammed, the MA gets slammed, it's going to get ugly for them. For RDU some light icing looks possible, for GSO/INT and points NW it could be dicey. We actually get a pretty good snow event up this way, followed by a crusty topping. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 We actually get a pretty good snow event up this way, followed by a crusty topping. I'll take it. Not sure we actually have learned anything from the NAM and GFS so far tonight. They are worlds apart on QPF.. I sure like the look of the GFS tonight. Would much rather have snow. On to the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not sure we actually have learned anything from the NAM and GFS so far tonight. They are worlds apart on QPF.. I sure like the look of the GFS tonight. Would much rather have snow. On to the GGEM. I agree. I still haven't been able to lean towards one or the other. Of course the 0z GGEM comes in with a nasty ice storm solution again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.