griteater Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Gsp disco The sref plume diagrams show over a half inch of freezing rain at Boone and about 2 tenths of inch of ice at Hickory. As is typical...the GFS is a little warmer. It/S also a little drier. In fact...the amount of precipitation that the GFS has over The Wedge wouldn/T be sufficient for damaging ice accumulations while the NAM and Canadian have closer to a half inch of liquid precipitation. The European model (ecmwf) just came in and it supports the lower values of the GFS. I/ve increased the amount of freezing rain considerably along the NC Blue Ridge...the western foothills and the upper French Broad valley late Sat night and Sunday morning. We are still dealing with a late 5th period and 6th period event and it/S way too early to issue watches. Also...the unusually warm middle level thicknesses and the global model/S recent trend toward lower quantitative precipitation forecast add to the forecast uncertainty. However...the overall trend looks to support some amount of freezing rain over our northern zones early Sunday. And if the heavier quantitative precipitation forecast were to verify we could even see damaging accumulations of ice. Until the GFS and Euro models increase the precip, it's hard to support anything more than light icing in NC. The 700mb RH that rolls through on Sunday isn't very expansive. In general, models overdo precip (QPF). It looks like the heavier moisture axis will be north of NC on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Until the GFS and Euro models increase the precip, it's hard to support anything more than light icing in NC. The 700mb RH that rolls through on Sunday isn't very expansive. In general, models overdo precip (QPF). It looks like the heavier moisture axis will be north of NC on Sunday. But would that have anything to do with what RaleighWx said about the NAM vs. the GFS? However, it could be that the coarse nature of the GFS model compared to the higher resolution of the NAM means the GFS model isn’t resolving the complicated thermal structure in the lower levels correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Until the GFS and Euro models increase the precip, it's hard to support anything more than light icing in NC. The 700mb RH that rolls through on Sunday isn't very expansive. In general, models overdo precip (QPF). It looks like the heavier moisture axis will be north of NC on Sunday. Right now, I believe that you may be right. Light icing looks the most likely as the moisture axis is not very large; however, forecasting QPF is very difficult. Monitoring the trends will be important. Also, I am watching temperature trends. The temperature has been dropping with nearly every run of the models. I am hoping for under a quarter of an inch of precip, because any more will cause major problems for many locations north of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 But would that have anything to do with what RaleighWx said about the NAM vs. the GFS? He said "resolving the complicated thermal structure in the lower levels correctly"...so he was referring to the low level temperatures in the cold air damming regime as opposed to precip amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Late afternoon forecast out of RAH has no mention of zr for the triad region. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Late afternoon forecast out of RAH has no mention of zr for the triad region. TW They said this 2 hours ago. Something to be watched...temperature profiles on forecast soundings have trended towards a potential for light freezing rain in the northwest Piedmont and along the northern tier counties after midnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. At this point...with temperatures bottoming out near freezing after a warm spell...would not be a major concern as it would be primarily on elevated surfaces... limbs...power lines...the like. Only takes a little...though...so it will be monitored closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Late afternoon forecast out of RAH has no mention of zr for the triad region. TW In their discussion they said they were watching this very closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Late afternoon forecast out of RAH has no mention of zr for the triad region. TW That seems odd, but I guess it's a close call on temps. Looks like a light frz rain event there to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 From west trends with the low, to warm trends, to east trends with the high, to erosion trends, back to cold trends, now to precip trends. Safe to say the weather hates us in every shape and form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 From west trends with the low, to warm trends, to east trends with the high, to erosion trends, back to cold trends, now to precip trends. Safe to say the weather hates us in every shape and form. Safe to say GFS doesn't have a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm not real good yet with the model thing. But does any of the models indicate a stronger CAD with ice potential into the upstate? From my experience over the years set ups like this usually give us ice if the CAD is strong enough here. i may have to edit as i am just catching up from a busy day at work lol. i have been watching and hoping too and it looks close, but for ne ga and the upstate from what i have seen so far its knocking on the door but the magical freezing line stops just before the upstate. i would love it to roar on in, am there is a chance i suppose, but as we get closer and not much adjustment in the temps to get us below freezing we might be on the fringe watching with envy just to our north lol its been getting warmer all week and sucks, 66 on the way home ugh. i was hoping that the mid and upper 60s that were progged earlier this week wouldnt come to fruition to at least give us a chance, but alas that didnt pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 i may have to edit as i am just catching up from a busy day at work lol. i have been watching and hoping too and it looks close, but for ne ga and the upstate from what i have seen so far its knocking on the door but the magical freezing line stops just before the upstate. i would love it to roar on in, am there is a chance i suppose, but as we get closer and not much adjustment in the temps to get us below freezing we might be on the fringe watching with envy just to our north lol its been getting warmer all week and sucks, 66 on the way home ugh. i was hoping that the mid and upper 60s that were progged earlier this week wouldnt come to fruition to at least give us a chance, but alas that didnt pan out But that cad could be colder and stronger than what's being modeled, but I think the biggest thing for us is gonna be where that HP sets up shop. That 32 line is very close and whouldnt have to move far to give us ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 But that cad could be colder and stronger than what's being modeled, but I think the biggest thing for us is gonna be where that HP sets up shop. That 32 line is very close and whouldnt have to move far to give us ice! lol - well i couldnt delete it since you replied (joking) - i admit i did a couple of double takes catching up (and no not just cos brick posted a map saw a couple of maps and the inhouse one that showed the freezing mark reaching into our areas. that would be a classic cad - one reason i havent been as hype this week was the hp being 1035-1040 was decent but not enough to get my hopes up it would be strong enough to get the colder air down this way. it is in a great position (the hp) and the time of year big ice events have happened so we may not be out of the game at all. it will be interesting for the next couple of runs to see if the hold or increase the 32 line into ne ga or if the few i saw were just flukes edited to add: well this WPC probability page should be interesting to watch the new couple of updates. in a 30-40% chance from ne ga thru upstate (getting higher into nc obviously) granted thats the lowest amount of accretion but hey in the se you take what you can get lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think the reason we are seeing a trend toward lower amounts of QPF is the storm is going to have some convection on the southern end and this would rob us of the better moisture totals. Which is just fine with me! I like watching football on Sundays . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 You are still in the catbird seat as far as Ga. is concerned. it's still early. Let the first round of frozen get on the ground close by, then we'll see what the cad has to offer you in a few days I can't believe any want zr, but I know you do, so I'm hoping for you. I'm just hoping for more rain. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 WPC maps 40-60% chance of Ice Storm Warning Conditions in Ashe, Alleghany, Surry, Watauga, Wilkes > (0.25) Greater than half inch of ice...20-40% chance in Ashe, Alleghany, Surry, Watauga, Wilkes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Wait till you see the images coming out west of us tomorrow then you might change your mind. I always remember the pictures of the Ice storm In Southern Canada I the mid to late 90's all towers and trees were taken down like a Game of Jenga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I have been in two bad ice storms. Been without power for over a week but I still like them. Local mets thinking light ZR is all for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think I heard some crickets! I guess things will fire back up in about 90 minutes. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I have been in two bad ice storms. Been without power for over a week but I still like them. Local mets thinking light ZR is all for us that's what they will say until about 12 hours out then they will up the ante Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Post! Eyes and ears on the ground in real time, make a world of difference in how we, down stream, view the events. And if you have a way to be online after the power goes, so much the better. To me the ice storm it's self isn't the story, it's how people survive the aftermath... because the big ones are all about destruction. Any who are reading this thread, and are threatened with an inch or more.... if you don't have a chainsaw on your street, get one now. I remember in Atl in the bad ones, how whole neighborhoods were going without food because no one had a chainsaw, and their cul de sac was just one of thousands tucked away, and forgotten. Of course that was before cell phones, lol. But you get my drift. Someone has to be prepared in every neighbourhood I really fear for Atlanta when the next huge one hits, because they aren't ready...not even close. Tony NWS MEM just expanded the ice storm warning a few counties westward....(includes me now) Up to one inch of ZR expected, maybe more. Store shelves were bare today...2009 still stings for many. Cold rain IMBY now, expect that to change soon. I'll at least try to post some photos if I am able. Well prepared for this (in part thanks to you guys)....heating with wood now in anticipation of an outage. Worried about family though. Love the fascination of these setups but the consequences can be dire, as many know. Stay safe everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny C Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Thanks for a great write up. No problem guys. I will always be around when the weather gets good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NWS MEM just expanded the ice storm warning a few counties westward....(includes me now) Up to one inch of ZR expected, maybe more. Store shelves were bare today...2009 still stings for many. Cold rain IMBY now, expect that to change soon. I'll at least try to post some photos if I am able. Well prepared for this (in part thanks to you guys)....heating with wood now in anticipation of an outage. Worried about family though. Love the fascination of these setups but the consequences can be dire, as many know. Stay safe everyone. Man hang in there and keep us posted as you can. Glad to hear you've got wood heating, you'll be in better shape than many. I've been talking to friends and family from west TN all day, people are on edge for sure. At least everyone seems to be taking this seriously. I'm reminded of the great ice storm of 94. Outside of Paris we lost power for two weeks. The pine trees that lined both sides of highway 641 collapsed and that road wasn't passable for a long time unless you had an ATV. Lots of food spoilage... we had our freezer contents outside as long as we could. It was kind of nice to use coal oil lamps though. That was a wild one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 NWS MEM just expanded the ice storm warning a few counties westward....(includes me now) Up to one inch of ZR expected, maybe more. Store shelves were bare today...2009 still stings for many. Cold rain IMBY now, expect that to change soon. I'll at least try to post some photos if I am able. Well prepared for this (in part thanks to you guys)....heating with wood now in anticipation of an outage. Worried about family though. Love the fascination of these setups but the consequences can be dire, as many know. Stay safe everyone. Stay safe, WTWx! Glad you've got the wood up, an inch will put you on wood heat pretty quick I learned my lesson, and always have propane space heaters, as well as the wood stove....and now a generator. And good car batteries, and power inverters....I hate doing without tv and the inner webs...not knowing what's going on. I'm not sure about the cable. The lines down my street are underground, but up on the main street they are over head. Lose a few phone poles, and out goes the inner webs and tv, even if I have my modem, and laptop on the car batteries...and so far I haven't been able connect to Comcast's nearest hot spot on the I pad. I don't think Apple has this wifi thing down good yet, lol. Sometimes it's hard to get a connection on the other side of the house. I'm glad you've prepared!! Let's just hope there isn't any big wind. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 General rule of thumb is a 1/4" of ice adds 500lbs to a single line span, enough to start interrupting the grid. Add, another 1/4" to that, and then you start seeing sig issues on the backbone. Been busy with work so not really had a chance to keep close tabs on this one, but there could be ~1/2" accretions for the most favored areas in NW NC, 4 counties in the HPC hatch for warning criteria. Hate ice, nothing worse than surface freezing temps with RN hitting the ground. Wish everyone impacted well, not quite a get your candles out Watauga, but yeah, there are going to be some impacts on Sunday west of 77 in N NC, up into the 77/81 junction in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Just heard the forecast from GSP and they are saying ZR here in upstate sat night-sun. That's the first I've heard of it mentioned for the upstate area! And usually they are pretty conservative, can't beleive they have it in forecast 2.5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NWS MEM just expanded the ice storm warning a few counties westward....(includes me now) Up to one inch of ZR expected, maybe more. Store shelves were bare today...2009 still stings for many. Cold rain IMBY now, expect that to change soon. I'll at least try to post some photos if I am able. Well prepared for this (in part thanks to you guys)....heating with wood now in anticipation of an outage. Worried about family though. Love the fascination of these setups but the consequences can be dire, as many know. Stay safe everyone. Only under and Winter Weather Advisory here in Nashville for a little ice late tomorrow but just to show you how dynamic this storm is... it is currently 36 degrees here with a pretty good thunderstorm ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Just heard the forecast from GSP and they are saying ZR here in upstate sat night-sun. That's the first I've heard of it mentioned for the upstate area! And usually they are pretty conservative, can't beleive they have it in forecast 2.5 days out. Where in the upstate? I haven't seen any point and click forecasts showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Where in the upstate? I haven't seen any point and click forecasts showing that. It wasn't on the point and click it just has rain. It was on the weather radio and just giving the forecast for the upstate, said ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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