lugnuts Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Im amazed at the consistent runs of the GFS...Is that a fair statement?..Eyebrow levels keep raising a notch with this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 00z GFS has about 1" QPF worth of ZR/IP here. Oh, my....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 00z GFS has about 1" QPF worth of ZR/IP here. Oh, my....... I'd get the chainsaws and generators out now... this is going to make 2002 look like a krispy kreme glaze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Just as was the case on the last few GFS runs, this Dec. 8th CAD is mainly a WNC threat for ZR per the 0Z gfs as opposed to a more extensive (to the SW) threat like 12/05, 1/05, and the two 1/00 ZR's that reached at least as far west as the western Atlanta burbs. But it is still very early of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Just as was the case on the last few GFS runs, this Dec. 8th CAD is mainly a WNC threat for ZR per the 0Z gfs as opposed to a more extensive (to the SW) threat like 12/05, 1/05, and the two 1/00 ZR's that reached at least as far west as the western Atlanta burbs. But it is still very early of course.. It's probably said on here two or three times a day, but , maybe model underestimating the strength/density of the cold air? But per that run, it barely noses into upstate SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Talked to Robert earlier. He said this could be a serious ice storm. Let's hope. Ordering salt tomorrow just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Ouch. That looks like a 3 - loafer and a kegger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Well, it's way to early for some idiot to be starting a thread, but since it's done, best take Widre's advice, and cool the enthusiasm jets That said, I'm seeing we have a forum full of tucking crazy people, and ice is a possible...so those that want it please take the portions meant for those who don't, lol. I doubt, at this point we have more than a 15 or 20 % chance of ice outside of N. C., Tenn, and back to Texas, and less for sleet, but I will be doing my best to change destruction, to obstruction, so the lanes are free for sledding, lol. A 1040 high pushing down, making a moisture sandwich with a cad high, makes you pay attention T Edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 . It's probably said on here two or three times a day, but , maybe model underestimating the strength/density of the cold air? But per that run, it barely noses into upstate SC If it were to verify like the 12Z Euro with a 1045 high centered over S Quebec, then I'd be thinking a much higher threat as far west as Ga than what the gfs shows. However, for NC the GFS's 1030ish high is enough for major ZR in this case. Some stats: about 45%/20% of winters have one or more major ZR's somewhere in Carolinas/Atlanta area. Of course, the Atlanta area is a much smaller area than the Carolinas...duh. So, the Carolina stats will naturally be higher just because of that. However, it is still easier to have major ZR in any one spot in W NC than in any one spot in upstate SC or in any one spot in the N half of GA, which is intuitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 00z Canadian is colder than it's previous run and has snow and ice developing farther south than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 00z Canadian is colder than it's previous run and has snow and ice developing farther south than the GFS. I see the GGEM is getting the upstate in on it this go around... even my back yard close to KCAE.... real close to ATL.. man.. NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The GGEM is pretty phenomenal here. Heavy snow at the onset (0.3-0.4" QPF) followed by an amazing amount of sleet (0.8-1.0" QPF) and a sizable chunk of ZR (0.4-0.5" QPF) (though most of the ZR is further south). Sign me up!!!!!!!!!!!! The run is kind of reminiscent of December 2002, except much, much more extreme with the sleet. The GGEM looks further south in general as very little precipitation gets further north than Charlottesville, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 So far, the good doctor coming in similarly to the 12Z run but with a slightly stronger SE push of the Arctic air at hour 120 (by ~75 miles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The GGEM is pretty phenomenal here. Heavy snow at the onset (0.3-0.4" QPF) followed by an amazing amount of sleet (0.8-1.0" QPF) and a sizable chunk of ZR (0.4-0.5" QPF) (though most of the ZR is further south). Sign me up!!!!!!!!!!!! The run is kind of reminiscent of December 2002, except much, much more extreme with the sleet. Bro, the GGEM is lining up with what the GFS showed for the Midlands a couple days ago when I was flipping about a major ZR here... just slowly. I do NOT want this. I had just started feeling better seeing the GFS take it all away from us in SC. So what does everyone think? I've read that the Euro (previous runs) had something like the Canadian is trying to show now..? Maybe even underdoing it? Is the GFS too weak with this deal or? I still would think we can't get cold enough down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The GEM is frigid with winter into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I just can't believe that run of the GGEM. I'm not sure if the Meteocentre maps are necessarily accurate, but if they are I've never seen a model run show such a huge ice storm in the Southeastern US. It would be absolutely devastating for many, many areas. I'm going to post them for safe-keeping. We may never see a run like that again.Snow:Sleet (Ice Pellets):Freezing Rain: Yes, that's ~1.5" of ZR in SW MS and NE LA. The GGEM is probably out to lunch, but still. I just don't see the ZR getting that far south. Does the GGEM have a bias towards colder surface temperatures or anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandonjva Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I would say the Cmc tends to run colder then most.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The CMC seems to have some cold bias with SE winter storms and it just isn't as accurate as the GFS or Euro. If I had a nickel for every time it had a major winter storm at Atlanta, well.....in other words take with humongous grain and go with GFS/Euro. It isn't as bad as the DGEX, but still it isn't too good. It is mainly good for entertainment and shows the absolute worst case scenario in many cases......very low % chance to verify imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Meanwhile, the 0Z Euro still has a sig. WNC ZR 12/8, possibly just getting into part of upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Meanwhile, the 0Z Euro still has a sig. WNC ZR 12/8, possibly just getting into part of upstate SC. Larry, when you say WNC, are you talking about the typical CAD alley regions, such as Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Charlotte, Hickory, etc.? Thanks for the input about the GGEM, BTW. I don't typically look at it too much, but I was taken aback by that ridiculous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Does anyone have the Euro maps to show? Thank you:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Meanwhile, the 0Z Euro still has a sig. WNC ZR 12/8, possibly just getting into part of upstate SC. If I'm seeing the right data, most areas should be 34 or warmer in the Upstate per 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Larry, when you say WNC, are you talking about the typical CAD alley regions, such as Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Charlotte, Hickory, etc.? Thanks for the input about the GGEM, BTW. I don't typically look at it too much, but I was taken aback by that ridiculous run. Yes, in typical NC CAD areas as well as to the fringe region near RDU/BRICK! Hopefully he is sleeping. Shhhh, nobody tell or he won't be able to sleep due to excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yes, in typical NC CAD areas as well as to the fringe region near RDU/BRICK! Hopefully he is sleeping. Shhhh, nobody tell or he won't be able to sleep due to excitement. Thank you. IIRC, the Euro has a warm bias at the surface in CAD situations, though? Of course, we're pretty far out still, so it's probably useless to get too detailed over just a few degrees at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Does anyone have the Euro maps to show? Thank you:) BTW, the rest of the Euro is pretty darn cold as well...another blast of -10 850's for the Tennessee Valley and Apps by Day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Thank you. IIRC, the Euro has a warm bias at the surface in CAD situations, though? Of course, we're pretty far out still, so it's probably useless to get too detailed over just a few degrees at this point. You're welcome. Yes, it does imo based on my experience in following it. However, the GFS doesn't really and it mainly just gets W NC. 0z Euro pretty cold from ZR storm through most days til day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 I've seen ice lay up like that from Texas, Ark, n Miss, n Ala, Tenn, NC, and never get over the mtns. The apps in Ala blocked the thick cold up against the nw flank and it never made it into Rome, Ga. They've had periods of sleet, and zrain for over a week from above Huntspatch all the way back to Texas, while we had occasional rain. That is one that haunts me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Cool! Thank you...my phone will only let me see so much! Greetings from Oklahoma! Really enjoy y'all's forum:) Hoping for snow for the entire south..Ice is scary stuff! 2007, I didn't have power for two weeks! Good luck to you all:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Welcome Ouamber! Please give us your obs when you can. It's always nice to know what's happening west of us in real time obs Especially if your getting covered up in ice...and better, snow. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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