RaleighWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 No problem guys. I will always be around when the weather gets good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Allan's maps have inspired me to set up centos and gempak over on another computer to try to make some fun stuff. I came across a nice decoded .gem set that updates really quickly.. too bad i don't have a university source for LDM. Anywayy.. Your thoughts look great Allan. The GGEM hasn't let go and refuses to budge really as other guidance comes closer to it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thank you sir ! Yes Brick, .25 is when things start to get bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thank you sir ! Yes Brick, .25 is when things start to get bad. Yep even if roads are too warm trees will bend over roadways (esp. pine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I agree with everyone, it's always a good day when you stop by Allan and give your thoughts. I'm starting to get a little worried though as we've seen this play out before. We keep getting colder as we move towards the event only for it to be even colder and the wedge stay longer during the event. That is my one worry now. I believe that is what happened on this date back in 02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Allan appreciate your input very solid and detailed synopsis! Haven't had an ice storm since I lived in CT back in dec of 08 we got I believe 1 1/4-1 1/2" and it was a complete nightmare no power for a week. Granted it won't be nearly as bad however nonetheless anything over a 1/3 for me starts getting me on edge. Love them but hate them lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thank you Allen for stopping by your input is always welcome and greatly appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I believe that is what happened on this date back in 02. I lived in Cary back during the December 5-6 2002 Ice Storm. Far different setup It was in the mid 20s during the event http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ Joe Bastardi also 3 days before the event sent this out to his pro subscribers: "If you are in the NW NC and NC Piedmont, you better be on your knees praying for a snow or sleet storm rather than an Ice Storm" The event started off as a quick burst of snow enough to cover the ground, then quickly went to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I lived in Cary back during the December 5-6 2002 Ice Storm. Far different setup It was in the mid 20s during the event http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ Joe Bastardi also 3 days before the event sent this out to his pro subscribers: "If you are in the NW NC and NC Piedmont, you better be on your knees praying for a snow or sleet storm rather than an Ice Storm" The event started off as a quick burst of snow enough to cover the ground, then quickly went to freezing rain. I thought before the event started unfolding that it was forecasted to not be much of anything, but the temps got colder than forecasted. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 i think this NAM will come in cooler than the last. dont hold it to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised to see temps bottom out 2-3 degrees below c 12z NAM. In Greensboro, that would be 26-27. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Through 36.... the high in the upper plains is a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Gsp has already updated my weekly forecast. Just south of hickory. Freezing rain in the morning. Rain. Much cooler with highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Gsp disco The sref plume diagrams show over a half inch of freezing rain at Boone and about 2 tenths of inch of ice at Hickory. As is typical...the GFS is a little warmer. It/S also a little drier. In fact...the amount of precipitation that the GFS has over The Wedge wouldn/T be sufficient for damaging ice accumulations while the NAM and Canadian have closer to a half inch of liquid precipitation. The European model (ecmwf) just came in and it supports the lower values of the GFS. I/ve increased the amount of freezing rain considerably along the NC Blue Ridge...the western foothills and the upper French Broad valley late Sat night and Sunday morning. We are still dealing with a late 5th period and 6th period event and it/S way too early to issue watches. Also...the unusually warm middle level thicknesses and the global model/S recent trend toward lower quantitative precipitation forecast add to the forecast uncertainty. However...the overall trend looks to support some amount of freezing rain over our northern zones early Sunday. And if the heavier quantitative precipitation forecast were to verify we could even see damaging accumulations of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Idk at 2m the temp profile looks the same at 48 as it did at 54 on 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 i guess no one is talking about about today's forcast was 77? it's not even close with scatterd rain an cloud cover . what does this mean if anything who knows but too me if the temps are 10 degrees cooler than forcasted big deal maybe ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Idk at 2m the temp profile looks the same at 48 as it did at 54 on 12z run thickness is warmer this run also :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It looks just about identical to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 i guess no one is talking about about today's forcast was 77? it's not even close with scatterd rain an cloud cover . what does this mean if anything who knows but too me if the temps are 10 degrees cooler than forcasted big deal maybe ? Feels like a late June morning. Throw some sunshine in there and you'd probably hit 80! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hour 60 is more pronounced with the cad into North Carolina for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It might be a tick colder out to 63 but so far pretty much in lock step with 12z. Where there is a difference is in moisture. There is just one glob over in SW NC near the TN and GA border. 12z kind of had it spread out further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 but its not 80 ,67 in central nc period . 65 in some places . You might want to move this discussion to the obs or banter thread. This one is for the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 @69 NAM is lighter on precip compared to 12z again maybe a hair cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It is a lot drier than the overly wet 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 18z says less precip and the wedge erodes a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 2m stays below freezing until about the end of the run in the northern Piedmont, but it is drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 VA does not get the split shaft tho as the 12z showed so that's a positive for me still a pretty good swath of precip that's comes thru nc to create some pretty hazardous conditions when cad presents itself down to I-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looks like 0.3-0.5" of ZR from I-40 northward in NC, so it's not bone dry by any stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looks like 0.3-0.5" of ZR from I-40 northward in NC, so it's not bone dry by any stretch. That would cause a lot of problems if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Very latest inhouse run from Brad. I don't like ice so I welcome lower precip amounts on the gfs/euro and the trend on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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