Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The ncep site is freekin killing me the links used to be a lot better in my opinion I don't see a total qpf output what was the run for the nc va area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 When would this start? I want be back home until Sunday afternoon. So hope this don't get started till I get home? Would hate to miss a sleet pellet or some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 1038 HP over PA at hour 72. Looks like precip is light to moderate which would allow decent zr accrual for CAD regions in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Surface Wet-Bulbs at 10AM Sunday (15z). White line is 32 deg F wet-bulb temperature. GFS essentially has it in that configuration from 7AM to 7PM Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Stupid question...im new to this, but what are CAD regions of NC? I looked up CAD - cold air damming....?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Precip starts around daybreak at GSO with temps around 32, but dropping to around 29-30. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Stupid question...im new to this, but what are CAD regions of NC? I looked up CAD - cold air damming....?? General rule of thumb is it's east of the mountains but not too close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Surface Wet-Bulbs at 10AM Sunday (15z). White line is 32 deg F wet-bulb temperature. GFS essentially has it in that configuration from 7AM to 7PM Sunday. Uggg...this is not looking good for many in NC. Our only saving grace may be latent heat for those not in the at 28 degree death zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 ok. Thanks. I never can figure out our weather here since we don't have a local station. We are in Mebane, NC just east of Burlington. I between triad and triangle. So, I look at both. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Nvm found it on ncep gosh thru 114 it has a ridiculous amount of qpf but idk how long that stretches from or when we actually get above 32 how much falls before or after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NAM at same time for comparison (15z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 ok. Thanks. I never can figure out our weather here since we don't have a local station. We are in Mebane, NC just east of Burlington. I between triad and triangle. So, I look at both. Lol Be sure to read this thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29651-weather-references-and-newbie-information/ Just as a heads up try to keep basic questions and discussions that are not related to the specific storm in the banter thread. You'll find people are happy to answer and help there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Per the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Uggg...this is not looking good for many in NC. Our only saving grace may be latent heat for those not in the at 28 degree death zone. Yeah, based on relatively light precip rates, surface temps probably stay a tick above the wet-bulb temp (i.e. not fully saturated at 100% RH). But does the cooling trend continue a bit more in the coming days on the modeling?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Burger and Disc you happen to see the 2m temps on the 90 hr image?? Yikes big trouble is brewing you got the 850 line over northern pa practically with that big cad all the way down toward the borders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Burger and Disc you happen to see the 2m temps on the 90 hr image?? Yikes big trouble is brewing you got the 850 line over northern pa practically with that big cad all the way down toward the borders Upper 20's for our area and low 30's into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GEM/Canadian, which has been showing consistently showing the ice storm scenario for the CAD regions of NC for days now, coming in much colder on 12Z run as well. Keeps 32 degree line down to SC border until 12z Monday morning, with precip still coming down. Nice hit for NC CAD region if you want an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yoda was just saying at 74 the ggem has snow breaking out over s va an it has been ridiculously consistent so hopefully it'll hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Per the NAM If the placement of the high is being correctly modeled I find it hard to believe we don't see ZR N of i-40 and possibly further south in the damning area if the high sets up correctly. In these situations it always seems the cold is under estimated and when the CAD takes effect it takes longer than expected to move it out. Personally I'm pulling for the 32/33 and rain set up. When you start talking upper 20s with this moisture rolling through, it can get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 this might should go in the obs thread but here in Nashville our temp went from 68 to 51 in the past hour.... much faster drop then any of the local mets or the NWS had projected. Maybe come good news for seeing more wintry weather here and points further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 the way the models keeps trending colder with this, it would not take much for this to be ice in the upstate as well! If that H moves a little more south it could push that 32 line right on down here! I think this may end up putting a lot more people into a ice storm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Don't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think yesterday's thinking was NC was out of it for the most part! Never say never! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 LOL so Tallahassee should be on the lookout then? There is a limit to how far that cold air can drift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 LOL so Tallahassee should be on the lookout then? There is a limit to how far that cold air can drift south. ¡Ciudado! Vamos a haber lluvia helada en cúba!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I may have to eat some crow if the CMC turns out right. However, it could just as easily trend 1-2 degrees warmer since we have a full 3 days. From the get go I have thought only northern NC counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 LOL so Tallahassee should be on the lookout then? There is a limit to how far that cold air can drift south. I think the upstate of SC and maybe even NE Ga still has a potential. These are solid CAD areas that many times do not get modeled correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 LOL so Tallahassee should be on the lookout then? There is a limit to how far that cold air can drift south. Does Tallahassee get CAD? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Pretty potent storm right behind this one showing up on the GGEM for a deeper southern winter event, and then right after that a big ice hit again. Interesting GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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