CAD storms thread.

[Stovepipe]

NWS has moved west TN up to an Ice Storm Warning and models continue to trend icier the closer to the event we get.

 

Jackson, TN:

 

 

0z Euro text:

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
THU 00Z 05-DEC  20.4    14.8    1008      78      15    0.00     574     567    
THU 06Z 05-DEC  18.1    13.0    1011      90      67    0.00     574     565    
THU 12Z 05-DEC  16.8    12.5    1013      99      91    0.21     574     563    
THU 18Z 05-DEC   8.4    11.7    1017      70      80    0.15     575     561    
FRI 00Z 06-DEC   2.2     9.8    1019      92      86    0.07     574     559    
FRI 06Z 06-DEC   1.1     7.0    1021      94     100    0.59     574     557    
FRI 12Z 06-DEC   0.1     6.8    1020      94      99    0.47     572     556    
FRI 18Z 06-DEC  -0.8     7.8    1021      91     100    0.73     572     556    
SAT 00Z 07-DEC  -3.4     2.5    1025      87      67    0.41     571     552    
SAT 06Z 07-DEC  -5.8     0.3    1030      86       2    0.00     572     549    
SAT 12Z 07-DEC  -8.1    -1.5    1033      87       2    0.00     571     546    
SAT 18Z 07-DEC  -2.2     0.5    1033      68       3    0.00     572     547    
SUN 00Z 08-DEC  -3.8     1.9    1030      80       5    0.00     572     548    
SUN 06Z 08-DEC  -2.7     4.3    1027      83      99    0.00     571     550    
SUN 12Z 08-DEC  -1.3     4.2    1022      91     100    0.25     570     552    
SUN 18Z 08-DEC   0.5     7.2    1020      94      72    0.10     570     554    
MON 00Z 09-DEC   0.6     7.0    1017      98      96    0.23     570     557    
MON 06Z 09-DEC   0.1     1.6    1018      97      11    0.01     568     554  

Memphis:

0z Euro text:

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
THU 00Z 05-DEC  20.5    15.5    1008      81      17    0.00     574     568    
THU 06Z 05-DEC  18.6    13.2    1011      90      51    0.00     575     566    
THU 12Z 05-DEC  14.1    12.6    1013      95      77    0.22     574     564    
THU 18Z 05-DEC   8.7    12.2    1017      81      88    0.07     575     561    
FRI 00Z 06-DEC   2.1    11.8    1019      87      78    0.07     575     560    
FRI 06Z 06-DEC   1.0     7.2    1020      93      92    0.52     574     558    
FRI 12Z 06-DEC   0.0     7.5    1020      93     100    0.43     573     557    
FRI 18Z 06-DEC  -2.3     8.6    1021      90     100    0.56     573     556    
SAT 00Z 07-DEC  -4.0     2.1    1027      85      60    0.33     572     551    
SAT 06Z 07-DEC  -5.9     0.2    1031      84       2    0.00     573     549    
SAT 12Z 07-DEC  -7.9    -0.9    1033      82       3    0.00     572     547    
SAT 18Z 07-DEC  -2.9     1.3    1033      67       3    0.00     573     548    
SUN 00Z 08-DEC  -3.4     2.5    1030      78      31    0.00     572     549    
SUN 06Z 08-DEC  -2.3     3.9    1027      82     100    0.01     572     551    
SUN 12Z 08-DEC  -1.6     5.0    1022      92      96    0.19     570     553    
SUN 18Z 08-DEC   0.3     7.8    1019      92      67    0.07     570     555    
MON 00Z 09-DEC   0.3     6.5    1017      98      88    0.27     570     557    
MON 06Z 09-DEC  -0.8     2.0    1020      96      11    0.01     568     553    

It also looks like a half inch of sleet and a half inch of snow will be mixing in as well.

[POWERSTROKE]

I hope something does surprise us but with the ridge in place its going to be tough

[tarheelwx]

BTW, nice precip freebies on the 00z Euro.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!84!North%20America!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2013120500!!/

 

TW

[Buddy1987]

12z nam at 57 hours is colder for my neck of the woods anyhow -5 850 touching ROA with 850 line down by va/nc border

[AirNelson39]

I'd think the higher elevations might be less prone to the ice. Why would Boone be more likely to get ice than Mt Airy?

TW

A lot of times that is the case but the Christmas ice storm of 2009 destroyed Boone but the foothills didn't get anything. I guess in certain cases the 3,000-3,500 elevations lock in the sub freezing temps

[Buddy1987]

Hour 66 has 850 line into northern nc whereas at the same timeframe (72 hr) 06z it still had it in southern va small but good trends -3 south of ROA

[Disc]

Hour 66 has 850 line into northern nc whereas at the same timeframe (72 hr) 06z it still had it in southern va small but good trends -3 south of ROA

 

We get shafted this run. We get stuck between the two heaviest swaths. Maybe a 1/2" of QPF at most.

[RaleighWx]

12z NAM is a major ice storm for a good part of NC. I will post a discussion here later today.

[Buddy1987]

You aren't kidding Disc however it is the 75-84 hr nam I'm just happy to see -3's touching if not going south of our doorstep this is the first whacky run showing this. Nam for me right now should be used for cad purposes.

[packbacker]

12z NAM is a major ice storm for a good part of NC. I will post a discussion here later today.

Interesting to see DP's much lower, wonder if it's correct.

[Buddy1987]

I guess 1/2" of qpf tho should be bothersome considering ROA's discussion this morning. Shoot we get a 20 mph gust around here and the power flickers lol 1/2" of zr would be nasty

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Another model run.  Another trend colder.  Like many have said on here, CAD situations only trend colder closer to the event.

[superjames1992]

Good Lord. The NAM keeps us in the 20s for an extended period of time.

[tarheelwx]

I felt all along there was a major bust potential in the areas that were really being talked about for the big ice.  As with any big storm, the bigger the potential is matched by bust potential. I could see sleet and snow leading to much less in the way of power problems in those areas. However, things shift south and the NC CAD area according to the NAM is largely in play.

TW

[Bsudweather]

I'm not real good yet with the model thing. But does any of the models indicate a stronger CAD with ice potential into the upstate? From my experience over the years set ups like this usually give us ice if the CAD is strong enough here.

[chapelhillwx]

I'm not real good yet with the model thing. But does any of the models indicate a stronger CAD with ice potential into the upstate? From my experience over the years set ups like this usually give us ice if the CAD is strong enough here.

 

Looking like subfreezing temps don't really make it into the upstate. These are temps at 10AM sunday.

 

[tarheelwx]

12z NAM had RDU with over .50" zr and temp around 30. Very similar to GSO. Both stay below freezing through 7pm Sunday.  Cuts precip totals in much of VA by alot.

TW

[Bsudweather]

Looking like subfreezing temps don't really make it into the upstate. These are temps at 10AM sunday.

Thanks! But who knows models could be underplaying the CAD strength, after they are starting to come in colder. I'm thinking a very cold rain here in upstate but still something we have to watch over next couple days. You never know about these setups, things could change in a hurry around here! Not that I want a ice storm and not sure why anyone would, but we have to watch out for CADs this time of year.

[Buddy1987]

Well GFS has initialized let's hope for it to have a heavy dose of precip with the trends of the cad on the nam

[packbacker]

Holy ice storm GFS for central NC

[Cold Rain]

Holy ice storm GFS for central NC

 

Go on...?

[Brick Tamland]

Wow, GFS coming in colder, too!

[tarheelwx]

Yep.  Coming in much colder than the 00z run.

tw

[packbacker]

Go on...?

Sorry, on my phone on I-95 :-)

[Cold Rain]

Sorry, on my phone on I-95 :-)

 

Me too... on my phone.

[chapelhillwx]

Temps at 12z Sunday per GFS:

 

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman on twitter:

 

GFS show ice potential from HKY to around Triangle. Model is similar to NAM, with NAM better resolution more realistic of thermal structure.

[franklin NCwx]

Sorry, on my phone on I-95 :-)

lol looking at weather models driving down the interstate.

[chapelhillwx]

lol looking at weather models driving down the interstate.

Texting and driving is illegal; forecasting and driving isn't.

[packbacker]

ROA gets hit hard