NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Nam getting colder. Has northern NC boarder counties 850's cold enough for snow Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Has 850 line south of Boone and -3 850 into Lynchburg! Mighty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Much appreciated....I am in NW Tennessee (Union City area) and I am anxiously awaiting this one. Local forecasters are all over the board as far as totals/precip types. It will be interesting to say the least to watch this unfold. Memories are still fresh from 2009, the days without power (weeks in some cases) and people are on edge. Definitely weird to have a 71 degree day today and a Winter Storm Warning in effect. I never post, I just try to read and learn from the knowledgeable guys on the board. Threads like this one really help to keep me informed. However if anyone is interested, I could post some Observations and/or photos later on.....at least while I still have electricity. Photos, observations and anything else about the storm is more than welcome! Hope it's not too bad out there for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Has 850 line south of Boone and -3 850 into Lynchburg! Mighty impressive Glad to see Buddy has returned as well. NAM is definitely colder, but it's still at the end of its run so I'm staying cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Glad to see Buddy has returned as well. NAM is definitely colder, but it's still at the end of its run so I'm staying cautiously optimistic. Idk but that slug of moisture on the 84 hour does have me worried and I'm starting to realize what people in TN are feeling no power is rough when your dealing with zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Idk but that slug of moisture on the 84 hour does have me worried and I'm starting to realize what people in TN are feeling no power is rough when your dealing with zr But looks a bit colder. Hopefully you guys will have a decent amount of the moisture fall as sleet or snow. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Idk but that slug of moisture on the 84 hour does have me worried and I'm starting to realize what people in TN are feeling no power is rough when your dealing with zr Soundings are VERY close to snow and could possibly be snow if it falls heavy enough. If it's not snow, it's pretty darn cold at the surface and anything will freeze. Nobody shoot me for discussing the NAM so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NAM at 84 hours has both RDU and GSO at 31 and dp at 28 with .07 zr. Roanoke is down to 24 with snow. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Glad to see Buddy has returned as well. NAM is definitely colder, but it's still at the end of its run so I'm staying cautiously optimistic. Have to admit looking at the 84 hour NAM sure beats looking at the current tc's Big Frosty will love how the 850 0 degree line slices right through Surry county and misses his back yard by about 20 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Here is a look at the 84hr NAM. Don't have the next frame to see how fast it warms up Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Temps in Boone, GSO, RDU, and ROA all fell significantly between 4 am and 7 am. I suspect they might still have another degree or two to fall. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NW Tennessee is now forecast for .6-.8 zr followed by 3-5 inches of snow/sleet from event one. Then another wave Saturday night/Sunday with frigid cold in it's wake. So not only near impossible travel, possible power outages and temps in the 20s/low 10s to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Much appreciated....I am in NW Tennessee (Union City area) and I am anxiously awaiting this one. Local forecasters are all over the board as far as totals/precip types. It will be interesting to say the least to watch this unfold. Memories are still fresh from 2009, the days without power (weeks in some cases) and people are on edge. Definitely weird to have a 71 degree day today and a Winter Storm Warning in effect. I never post, I just try to read and learn from the knowledgeable guys on the board. Threads like this one really help to keep me informed. However if anyone is interested, I could post some Observations and/or photos later on.....at least while I still have electricity. Post! Eyes and ears on the ground in real time, make a world of difference in how we, down stream, view the events. And if you have a way to be online after the power goes, so much the better. To me the ice storm it's self isn't the story, it's how people survive the aftermath... because the big ones are all about destruction. Any who are reading this thread, and are threatened with an inch or more.... if you don't have a chainsaw on your street, get one now. I remember in Atl in the bad ones, how whole neighborhoods were going without food because no one had a chainsaw, and their cul de sac was just one of thousands tucked away, and forgotten. Of course that was before cell phones, lol. But you get my drift. Someone has to be prepared in every neighbourhood I really fear for Atlanta when the next huge one hits, because they aren't ready...not even close. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NW Tennessee is now forecast for .6-.8 zr followed by 3-5 inches of snow/sleet from event one. Then another wave Saturday night/Sunday with frigid cold in it's wake. So not only near impossible travel, possible power outages and temps in the 20s/low 10s to follow. That really sucks, no power, just miserable if that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Temps in Boone, GSO, RDU, and ROA all fell significantly between 4 am and 7 am. I suspect they might still have another degree or two to fall. TW Lines up with the warmer euro/gfs for a Sunday morning freezing rain except in a few more places. Let's see if the NAM will also warm things up strongly at 1pm Sunday in the upcoming runs. If so may be able to have a damaging wind event in stronger thunderstorms going into Monday...shear may be supportive of a weak tornado after the cold is gone. Based off the 18z GFS...I put the greatest chance from Lincolnton to Fayetteville perhaps up to Greensboro. Upstate South Carolina included. NC foothills/mountains looks to miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 0z GFS appears to be colder. 850 line still stretches into SWVA @ 90hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 0z GFS appears to be colder. 850 line still stretches into SWVA @ 90hrs. Quickly retreats to the north in the next frame. Not sure of surface temps. yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm not really looking to see if its colder I'm looking to see how long it stays. I bet brief. Colder does help for better freezing rain if you are going to be up Sunday morning tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This run is serious business up in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 hr 81 to 90 possible light freezing rain from Boone to Greensboro Sunday AM. All rain Sunday PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Per usual, CAD getting stronger as event nears. Trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Per usual, CAD getting stronger as event nears. Trends Yep. No surprise whatsoever. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This run of 00z GFS is MUCH colder than previous runs and 850's further south.. Cold trend continuing.. Verbatim this would be snow/sleet to freezing rain for Roanoke.. Temps below freezing for 15-20 hours in Roanoke. Cold will erode slower than modeled I believe. I have seen it before.. Heaviest precipitation still North of Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This run of 00z GFS is MUCH colder than previous runs and 850's further south.. Cold trend continuing.. Verbatim this would be snow/sleet to freezing rain for Roanoke.. Temps below freezing for 15-20 hours in Roanoke. Cold will erode slower than modeled I believe. I have seen it before.. Heaviest precipitation still North of Roanoke. Heaviest swath has also appeared to have shifted south a little bit. Puts us in a light freezing rain scenario for quite some time. Easier for light ZR to accumulate too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Watch for a slippery sidewalk or railing on the way to church. I would say stronger...but this is mostly for VA north. Mostly the same status quote for NC except the ever so slightest expansion for possible freezing rain and maybe an extra hour or two of duration. Rates are stronger north and weaker south into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This run of 00z GFS is MUCH colder than previous runs and 850's further south.. Cold trend continuing.. Verbatim this would be snow/sleet to freezing rain for Roanoke.. Temps below freezing for 15-20 hours in Roanoke. Cold will erode slower than modeled I believe. I have seen it before.. Heaviest precipitation still North of Roanoke. If tonight's euro follows suit in a colder outcome, then we have a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Need it a bit wetter in n NC. Otherwise, looking pretty good. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Props to the GGEM if the trend continues. It's had this for days. If it doesn't trend colder, then disregard this post. Of course, now watch the GGEM trend warmer tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Watch for a slippery sidewalk or railing on the way to church. I would say stronger...but this is mostly for VA north. Mostly the same status quote for NC except the ever so slightest expansion for possible freezing rain and maybe an extra hour or two of duration. Rates are stronger north and weaker south into NC. Don't be so quick to write this one off as a non-event. Models are only a guide as to what could happen. This is far from being written in stone and I don't believe we have seen the final solution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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