tazaroo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If you are in western VA... He was focusing on VA but it sounded cold if Richmond was way below freezing as they are fringe CAD area I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 quick peak since I happen to be up... euro warmer and very gfs like. VA border counties see transit freezing rain. There is a bubble from Sparta to Galax that remains colder for several more hours tho. Cold rain event elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Well I'm in Nashville until next weekend so hopefully ill be able to report the cold air is pushing further south and east. Looks like ill be right on the line for getting anything note worthy here so like everyone else on here I'm rooting for.a stronger push of the HP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 6z NAM holds serve......still shows the stronger high pressure and deeper push of cold air. On to the 12z runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 From Memphis: 249 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAYAFTERNOON.* SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION.* TIMING...FROM 9PM THURSDAY EVENING TO 6PM FRIDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...DOWN TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR AND PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 As much as I like winter freezing rain is no fun especially when they are talking a half to three quarters of an inch good luck to them!!!!! It does not sound pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Read the Little Rock AFD from this morning... it's long and even they say so! http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_lzk.php "IF A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN OCCURS SOONER THAN EXPECTED...A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM COULD UNFOLD. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR MORE WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SUCH A SCENARIO." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 THe GFS and Euro not showing cold enough temps. I still think we need to track this because, as others have stated, the models may not be handeling the low level cold very well. We do have the NAM on board showing 32 degree dew points entering NW NC at hour 84. I know this is the NAM(at 84hr) but it may be correct in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 There is no way the cold is getting over the mountains. Its not even going to make it over the Cumberland plateau, much less the mountains.. The freezing line will likely be further south and east than currently modeled. And those of you trying to hitch your wagons to the NAM. It was the warmest model until 0z yesterday. So - take that for what it is. The NAM is horrible outside 24 hours and just bad inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 There is no way the cold is getting over the mountains. Its not even going to make it over the Cumberland plateau, much less the mountains.. The freezing line will likely be further south and east than currently modeled. And those of you trying to hitch your wagons to the NAM. It was the warmest model until 0z yesterday. So - take that for what it is. The NAM is horrible outside 24 hours and just bad inside 24 hours. Why would the freezing line be further south and east than modeled if the cold air isn't going to make it over the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 How is icing not ongoing for at least western portions of NC? It would be hard to find a better placement of features: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Why would the freezing line be further south and east than modeled if the cold air isn't going to make it over the mountains? Its CAD, I assume he means it won't escape westward over the mountains rather than continue to bounce off of the mountains and funnel southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 That's what I thought; I guess the addition of east was what was confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 12z NAM has stayed the course. At 84 hours 850 zero looks to be entering NC. It might be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 No takers on my question above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 No takers on my question above? Yeah it's a pretty solid CAD setup, but the cold air never pushes far enough to the southeast prior to the CAD configuration taking shape...western trough / SE ridging (-PNA), +NAO doesn't drive the cold air in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah it's a pretty solid CAD setup, but the cold air never pushes far enough to the southeast prior to the CAD configuration taking shape...western trough / SE ridging (-PNA), +NAO doesn't drive the cold air in Ok, thanks. Makes sense. I still think the model is in error with that, though. That's some cold air and that high is pretty stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'm saying that the cold isn't going to proceed east of the Cumberland plateau. If ya'll are talking about the NAM - its not even in the range of the possible CAD event yet, so I'm not sure why its relevant to the conversation. I'm saying the initial push of cold air that's causing the actual winter storm thurs-saturday is not going to make it east of the Cumberland plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'm saying that the cold isn't going to proceed east of the Cumberland plateau. If ya'll are talking about the NAM - its not even in the range of the possible CAD event yet, so I'm not sure why its relevant to the conversation. I'm saying the initial push of cold air that's causing the actual winter storm thurs-saturday is not going to make it east of the Cumberland plateau. absolutely spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If ya'll are talking about the NAM - its not even in the range of the possible CAD event yet, so I'm not sure why its relevant to the conversation. You are correct not sure why the NAM is being brought up. Check back on the NAM in another day or two when it will actually show the cad event. The only model showing anything sig. is the one of the models I don't bother to watch. The CMC. That is the model people need to discuss if you are going against the euro/gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 the 0z gfs is coming in colder. models prolly starting to see the cad effects fully now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 the 0z gfs is coming in colder. models prolly starting to see the cad effects fully now. You mean 12z and its been out. It did this yesterday showing a 1 maybe 2 degree cooling difference before warming back up at 0z. This run glazes the trees on the VA border counties before going to rain at 1pm Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Will a 1038 high get it done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 You mean 12z and its been out. It did this yesterday showing a 1 maybe 2 degree cooling difference before warming back up at 0z. This run glazes the trees on the VA border counties before going to rain at 1pm Sunday. im talking about the mean model's as a whole. models as a whole have began to cool from their warm scenarios. there might be a few runs that have high temps though, i acknowledge that. but yea, this deff wont be a major ice storm for NC. cool to track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Models are consistently showing a serious ice storm for Memphis, Jackson, Paris and points west in Tennessee for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 im talking about the mean model's as a whole. models as a whole have began to cool from their warm scenarios. there might be a few runs that have high temps though, i acknowledge that. but yea, this deff wont be a major ice storm for NC. cool to track though. I definitly would not bet(anything valuable) on a major ice event; but I still think it could happen (maybe 20% chance). Lets see how the next model runs look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 You are correct not sure why the NAM is being brought up. Check back on the NAM in another day or two when it will actually show the cad event. The only model showing anything sig. is the one of the models I don't bother to watch. The CMC. That is the model people need to discuss if you are going against the euro/gfs. The Canadian(especially the RGEM) is actually an excellent CAD model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The Canadian(especially the RGEM) is actually an excellent CAD model. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the Canadian the best at sniffing out the flizzard last Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The models don't seem to want freezing rain during the afternoon. Cold gets kicked out Sunday morning. I would be stunned at this point if it turned into a ice storm lasting into Monday south of the VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The models don't seem to want freezing rain during the afternoon. Cold gets kicked out Sunday morning. I would be stunned at this point if it turned into a ice storm lasting into Monday south of the VA border. There are a lot of things that scream NO ICE STORM! I would have to say at this point most people in NC will only see cold rain. But we do need to continue to track the placement of the cold and the source high. As others have stated the models can have difficulty with these CAD situations. And we are now looking at a difference of 1-3 degrees being huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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