NCSU2005 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This air mass is of true arctic origin and is always underplayed by the models.....If the high is as strong as the models are suggesting, then it's going to be an icy mess from GSO (possibly further south) through S. Va. I've got a very close eye on this one. Then, whenever this much cold is lurking in the center of the country, like next week, you have to be ready for something big to happen between the two competing air masses!! Post of the YEAR!!!! Really appreciate both of you posting today! Please come back soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 We are probably going to hear about flooding in Tennessee...if most of this does not fall in the form of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This air mass is of true arctic origin and is always underplayed by the models.....If the high is as strong as the models are suggesting, then it's going to be an icy mess from GSO (possibly further south) through S. Va. I've got a very close eye on this one. Then, whenever this much cold is lurking in the center of the country, like next week, you have to be ready for something big to happen between the two competing air masses!! I just hope it happens this side of the mts Post of the YEAR!!!! Agree.....this is gonna be a mess for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Are you implying that the DGEX will lead the way with this one??? ........Not a chance.... Now, I am not saying that we will have a crippling ice storm, but the DGEX is not a model that you should be putting any weight in. We have all learned that lesson many, many times. You know better than that. since the DGEX is part nam/part GFS, a lot of times the 18z DGEX run shows the hand of the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The 00z NAM at 84 hours shows a Big Agnes 1048 hp really pressing down. If it is right, I think we'll see some big changes over the next 24 hours in the models. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 We are probably going to hear about flooding in Tennessee...if most of this does not fall in the form of winter weather. I'm sure the TVA is face-palming right now trying to figure out WTF to do with the dams. This record rainfall year has already been a nightmare for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The 00z NAM at 84 hours shows a Big Agnes 1048 hp really pressing down. If it is right, I think we'll see some big changes over the next 24 hours in the models. TW now that would be a very impressive hp lol. if we could get one that strong it would lead to some big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Didn't get a chance to look before now. But I see it's back again this will be very interesting to see how this really plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Just imagine if things come in 2-3 degrees colder and 6-9 hours longer in duration. Lot's on the table. Again, 1048 hp shown on the 00z NAM at 84 hours on the MT/ND border and the cold is pressing into NC (0 850 approaching NW NC). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks like 00z GFS takes almost all of the ice potential away from NC. Still waiting for the rest of the run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 gfs looks warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS has been all over the place. Euro and CMC have been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Soundings from the COD website show it's colder in Danville, VA and RDU than in Roanoke and other portions in western VA at 108hrs? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This is shaping up to be a big deal from Dallas to Memphis. Winter Storm Watches going up in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This is shaping up to be a big deal from Dallas to Memphis. Winter Storm Watches going up in those areas.The Winter Storm Warning in Dallas in November turned out to be a cold rain. This one looks more promising for them. Crazy they might see their second winter storm warning of the season already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 About time to pull the plug on this one. Not staying up for the euro tonight. Still could see some glazing on the trees the closer you are to VA. Roads will be wet and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 About time to pull the plug on this one. Not staying up for the euro tonight. Still could see some glazing on the trees the closer you are to VA. Roads will be wet and warm. That's pretty much always been a given as long as this has been a purely ZR event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 About time to pull the plug on this one. Not staying up for the euro tonight. Still could see some glazing on the trees the closer you are to VA. Roads will be wet and warm. This is why these threads should only be created 48- 60 hours before an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Watch the reports over the next several days coming out of Ark, Tenn, Tx . Then decide if u want freezing rain, because I will tell u this U WILL NOT get power back on for quite a long time. With as many people getting hammered u will be on a waiting list not with just local neighbors but your neighbors in the states next to u as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 About time to pull the plug on this one. Not staying up for the euro tonight. Still could see some glazing on the trees the closer you are to VA. Roads will be wet and warm.. Check back in 3 days, and we will see where we are! If any of that air in the plains can get over the apps,... Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Watch the reports over the next several days coming out of Ark, Tenn, Tx . Then decide if u want freezing rain, because I will tell u this U WILL NOT get power back on for quite a long time. With as many people getting hammered u will be on a waiting list not with just local neighbors but your neighbors in the states next to u as well . "U" is in another amwx subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Watch the reports over the next several days coming out of Ark, Tenn, Tx . Then decide if u want freezing rain, because I will tell u this U WILL NOT get power back on for quite a long time. With as many people getting hammered u will be on a waiting list not with just local neighbors but your neighbors in the states next to u as well . It's going to come down to the strength of that high to the north. The NAM shows a much stronger high and thus the cold air is able to push farther southward.... Is it right?....don't know yet, but it is still too early to cancel the threat on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's going to come down to the strength of that high to the north. The NAM shows a much stronger high and thus the cold air is able to push farther southward.... Is it right?....don't know yet, but it is still too early to cancel the threat on this one. Even with a worse case scenario the ground temps will be too warm and warming temps aloft will only allow for minor elevated icing. A typical minor NC icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Aren't the GFS and Euro much better than the NAM at 84 hours? I believe that the 84 hour NAM is pretty bad and, therefore, wouldn't put much weight on it while it disagrees with those other two. Opinion? Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think the NAM is good for 24-48 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 This is the comet Ison of ice storms. Not to worry, the next storm will be just 10 days away, if this one doesn't resurrect. Meanwhile, I'm getting rains, good rains..for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The Canadian is sticking with its guns with an apparent major ice storm for the CAD-favored regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 DT talking up can on Facebook. We should still be in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 DT talking up can on Facebook. We should still be in the game If you are in western VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro still similar as last run maybe slightly warmer according to dt. CMC still coldest it seems. Still need 36 hours or so to iron this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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