Bsudweather Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks about the same to me. Still showing freezing rain in n nc cad areas Sunday. Very cold toward the end of the run. Is the Euro showing any icy scenario for the upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Summary of the afternoon models.. GFS trended back colder but not has cold as the Canadian and Euro. Canadian by far the coldest model with decent snows in VA before changing to ice and Euro shows pretty good ice storm for VA possibly including N NC. Then cold reloads for mid-week.. IMO - I still think the models are having a hard time handling the cold and will come into better agreement by this time tomorrow. I'm still hedging on temperatures trending colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 12z GFS put a lovely 3" band of snow for parts of East TN around the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Is the Euro showing any icy scenario for the upstate? Not on this run. 2m 32 degree line looks to bottom out around the triad area of n nc between 1pm and 7pm Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Not on this run. 2m 32 degree line looks to bottom out around the triad area of n nc between 1pm and 7pm Sunday Thanks! Like some others have said, I'm just wondering if models are downplaying the cold. I look for them to start trending colder over next couple days IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This air mass is of true arctic origin and is always underplayed by the models.....If the high is as strong as the models are suggesting, then it's going to be an icy mess from GSO (possibly further south) through S. Va. I've got a very close eye on this one. Then, whenever this much cold is lurking in the center of the country, like next week, you have to be ready for something big to happen between the two competing air masses!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This air mass is of true arctic origin and is always underplayed by the models.....If the high is as strong as the models are suggesting, then it's going to be an icy mess from GSO (possibly further south) through S. Va. I've got a very close eye on this one. Then, whenever this much cold is lurking in the center of the country, like next week, you have to be ready for something big to happen between the two competing air masses!! Post of the YEAR!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Very meh after seeing the euro/gfs/cmc. From what I gather from the euro/gfs...Afternoon freezing rain threat in northern NC with melting overnight or even before dark in some places. Extension into the southern Piedmont Triad brief and transit if this does not trend colder. CMC...absolute trash. So biasly cold...as WxSouth mentioned this model had a wintry mix in parts of Florida. I don't bother looking at this model to confirm this tho so take fwiw. Still a few days left for things to trend colder. But that's just speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 While I'm not getting anything this time around, I think some of you are going to be surprised by this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 While I'm not getting anything this time around, I think some of you are going to be surprised by this one! Maybe. The last big ice storm we had here in Dec 02 was supposed to be just rain, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 My 2 nieces are having a baby shower Sunday afternoon in western Lincoln county. Folks are driving 40 from the triangle and up 321 from the Charlotte area. Anybody think there might be some road issues? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 From Raleigh... A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLYEVOLVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY ANUPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND A SURFACE LOW MOVINGACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPSFALLING THROUGH THE 40S ON SATURDAY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TOMID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY HOLD IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY. AS THESURFACE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...MOVES OVER THENORTHEAST US...1000-850MB THICKNESSES MAY HOVER AROUND 1300M AND THEWETBULB FREEZING LINE MAY MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONTSUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELRUNS...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS DONT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MORE THANBRIEF FREEZING RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 From Greenville BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH COLD FRONT LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND...ASPRAWLING AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND 1040 MB) WILL BEGINOOZING INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH COLD AIRBEGINNING TO FUNNEL DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN COLD AIR DAMMINGONSET SCENARIO. TEMPS SHOULD FALL RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREASATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUCH THAT BY SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPS MAYBE AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...INDUCINGCYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCEHAS CONTINUED ITS WARMING TREND OF THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE GFSPARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS NOW OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WINTRYPRECIP...AND THE ECMWF HAVING WARMED SUCH THAT IT IS VERY SIMILAR TOYESTERDAY/S GFS. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT BACKED OFF THE MENTION OFFREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC QUITE A BIT. I/MRELUCTANT TO BACK OFF ANY FURTHER...AS THERE IS ALWAYS A CONCERNTHAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DOING A POOR JOB OF MODELING THE CAD.NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF/GFS EACH INDICATE A MIGRANT PARENTHIGH...AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OFTHE APPALACHIANS AND LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT BOTHARGUE FOR A CAD EROSION SCENARIO BY THE END OF SUNDAY. ALL THINGSCONSIDERED...THE SIGNALS AND TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE DO NOT SUPPORT AMAJOR ICING EVENT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD FALLWEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. WE WILL CONSIDER ADDING AMENTION OF ADVISORY LEVEL ICING IN THE HWO FOR SUNDAY...BUTCONFIDENCE IS BARELY AT THE REQUISITE 30 PERCENT LEVEL ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 My 2 nieces are having a baby shower Sunday afternoon in western Lincoln county. Folks are driving 40 from the triangle and up 321 from the Charlotte area. Anybody think there might be some road issues? TW Most likely not. Trees might be pretty in spots. Just too warm this week and road surfaces are going to warm up prior to the event. Need for it to be colder at the event and longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Never under estimate the power of the SE Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 18z GFS is a decent bit colder, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 18z GFS is a decent bit colder, FWIW. I actually think this time the models are underplaying this and more of is will end up with a nasty ice storm than we think. I personally think down fo the upstate of Sc Charlotte and over to Raleigh will be in the game. playing the cold air. This air is truly arctic and even cross polar in origen. More of us may be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I don't look at 18z GFS for much more than trends usually. Continues to trend colder.. Looks more in line with the Euro/CMC this run. Interesting to see tonight's 00z runs.. I would not rule out anything for those of you in NC CAD areas right now. For Roanoke, I am still thinking snow, sleet, to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 http://t.co/jZeCUA1e2P when the real cold gets sampled things could turn ugly they sure trending this way . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Well, I always look to the rain first, and it's been raining in the cursed lands. I'm up to .8 since yesterday morning, better than double what the gfs was offering. I had some really nice showers with this warm front. To me that bodes well for the upcoming events, if there is any cold...and there generally is after it gets record warm nearing winter Fair warning...if I get the impression starting threads will get me rain...I'll get to some full on crazy Wilkesing. Oh, yeah, I will.....there will be more potential ice storms than there are birds!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 From nothing to major in one run... I'm not sure if this might be a little overpowered, but there was definitely at least a few tenths of ZR judging by the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 That's close to .4" zr for GSO. Hmmmmmmm.TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 That's close to .4" zr for GSO. Hmmmmmmm. TW Looking at that map I posted, leads me to believe that CLT could possibly get in on the deal also.. if the CAD happens to be a tad underdone. Rob Hart has been generating these maps for a very long time, and their resolution should be correct. The trace amount shown in the tip of SC is a bit worrisome for the Upstate also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The DGEX shifted way north at 18z. Normally, that's a decent indicator as to what to expect with the 0z GFS, in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looking at that map I posted, leads me to believe that CLT could possibly get in on the deal also.. if the CAD happens to be a tad underdone. Rob Hart has been generating these maps for a very long time, and their resolution should be correct. The trace amount shown in the tip of SC is a bit worrisome for the Upstate also. If it gets started it won't stop there. If we start trending colder. I'd always go with underdone, rather than over done....just to be safe And there's nw Ala. again. That oozing cold trying to get over the lower end of the Apps. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The DGEX shifted way north at 18z. Normally, that's a decent indicator as to what to expect with the 0z GFS, in my experience. Are you implying that the DGEX will lead the way with this one??? ........Not a chance.... Now, I am not saying that we will have a crippling ice storm, but the DGEX is not a model that you should be putting any weight in. We have all learned that lesson many, many times. You know better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Are you implying that the DGEX will lead the way with this one??? ........Not a chance.... Now, I am not saying that we will have a crippling ice storm, but the DGEX is not a model that you should be putting any weight in. We have all learned that lesson many, many times. You know better than that. In Feb of 2010, I remember the over-amplified/southern DGEX's week earlier solution finally verifying on the SC snow storm. That's about all I remember about it being good. Not sure why NCEP puts the resources into the model. I know their DGEX page itself (at the ncep servers) is maintained by a single person and really never changed around anymore. I still think the computer resources to generate the grib files and all that are pointless though. I might try and make a meteogram script for the model and see just how horrible it is with intricate details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks Like Raleigh will be seeing cold rain. It could be worse, we could be cold and dry. We need more rain to bring Falls Lake back up (currently down about two feet)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks Like Raleigh will be seeing cold rain. It could be worse, we could be cold and dry. We need more rain to bring Falls Lake back up (currently down about two feet)! Probably so, but it was interesting to see the 18z run and it has ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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