Saturn510 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Did we totally lose the wave after mondays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Weather bell precip type maps show everything changing over to rain from East Central PA south and east by 129 hrs and by 132 hrs all is rain in PA and NJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 They can be interesting from a research meteorological perspective but the impacts can be awful so I agree. Snow is fun, ice is deadly. Strongly disagree. I think trees coated with ice is the most spectacular sight when it comes to extreme weather. And while not as deadly as ice, snow is deadly. People die every year from shoveling snow and car accidents on snowy roads. The fact that extreme weather kills doesn't stop weather enthusiasts from enjoying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Weather bell precip type maps show everything changing over to rain from East Central PA south and east by 129 hrs and by 132 hrs all is rain in PA and NJ... Like I keep reading, the models are going to have a tough time displaying how long the CAD will stick around. Will flip and flop several more times before Sunday. I'm about 15 minutes from ABE myself so I'm hoping for the same stuff you are. Also what happened to that 3rd wave people were talking about on the 12z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The coast holds frozen a solid amount of time atleast a frozen type of precip and on each run the CAD signature is getting stronger and stronger which was to be expected. Why was this to be expected? It's only stronger because the high to the north does not move right out into the Atlantic as quickly. If the high moves right on out, the CAD signature will be weaker. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Why was this to be expected? It's only stronger because the high to the north does not move right out into the Atlantic as quickly. If the high moves right on out, the CAD signature will be weaker. WX/PT From what I've read, in these setups, normally the cold is tougher to scour out, and hangs on longer in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 From what I've read, in these setups, normally the cold is tougher to scour out, and hangs on longer in some cases. Most cases this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 From what I've read, in these setups, normally the cold is tougher to scour out, and hangs on longer in some cases. More often than not 2 things happen in most of these setups, the precip starts quite a bit earlier than models show sometimes even what they are showing in the short range and the cold air holds on longer inland, at the coast I find the mid levels often warm faster but the surface only slightly slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Like I keep reading, the models are going to have a tough time displaying how long the CAD will stick around. Will flip and flop several more times before Sunday. I'm about 15 minutes from ABE myself so I'm hoping for the same stuff you are. Also what happened to that 3rd wave people were talking about on the 12z gfs? There is no wave after the event being discussed on the run tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 From what I've read, in these setups, normally the cold is tougher to scour out, and hangs on longer in some cases. It depends on what's going on around it. It can also depend on the ocean temperature which is a major forecast headache early in the winter...like now. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It depends on what's going on around it. It can also depend on the ocean temperature which is a major forecast headache early in the winter...like now. WX/PT water temps are overrated in the winter...sure if we get an east or SE wind the coast quickly changes over but thats all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 water temps are overrated in the winter...sure if we get an east or SE wind the coast quickly changes over but thats all winter. Wrong, not early in December they're not. I've seen it & been there too many times. All it takes is a moderately strong wind east of 050 and bang, warmer air is drawn in off of the ocean and the changeover is underway at the coast and in the city. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Wrong, not early in December they're not. I've seen it & been there too many times. All it takes is a moderately strong wind east of 050 and bang, warmer air is drawn in off of the ocean and the changeover is underway at the coast and in the city. WX/PT I have lived here my whole life and an east wind is the kiss of death all winter. Even an ENE wind doesn't always keep the cold air in place in the dead of winter. It's def debatable and I am not saying u r wrong. After all u are a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I have lived here my whole life and an east wind is the kiss of death all winter. Even an ENE wind doesn't always keep the cold air in place in the dead of winter. It's def debatable and I am not saying u r wrong. After all u are a met. Yeah that's what I thought, wouldn't an east wind be bad regardless of the date, what's the difference between 50 degree water vs 40 degree water? You're still going to see a changeover if it's an east wind off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Be careful dismissing this potential icing event in Central PA , NEPA and the lower Hudson valley . The forecasted low in these areas are in the low to mid 20`s Mon AM And the Euro wants to warm the surface to 40 F 12 hours later ? . For 1. the Euro is not the model to gauge surface temps 120 hrs out and 2 .Most models don't handle low level cold air and its density very well and sometimes it displaces it too quickly . Im not saying its wrong , but this is not Pacific air , it tends to get trapped at the surface with these types of events , especially away from the coast . For the coast I thnk theres frozen precip to start ,but an E wind on the coast goes over , The Monday morning commute doesn't look cute . That said the Euro is still bullish on the cold next THRS and FRI AM , which is doing that without snow cover in mid DEC and that's impressive . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah that's what I thought, wouldn't an east wind be bad regardless of the date, what's the difference between 50 degree water vs 40 degree water? You're still going to see a changeover if it's an east wind off the water. I agree, i have lived here my whole life. If you get an East or ENE wind its over and pretty quickly. Doesn't matter if its the dead of winter and really cold to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I agree, i have lived here my whole life. If you get an East or ENE wind its over and pretty quickly. Doesn't matter if its the dead of winter and really cold to start This is why I laugh when people say that lower SST help keep the coast snow. Short of the ocean being frozen over it's not going to make any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The 00z Euro was a solid front end thump away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This is why I laugh when people say that lower SST help keep the coast snow. Short of the ocean being frozen over it's not going to make any difference.Ocean temperatures make a HUGE difference in how far the warm air penetrates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The 06z GFS was 8"+ for NW NJ with 12"+ lollies near the DE Water Gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Ocean temperatures make a HUGE difference in how far the warm air penetrates. If you get an ESE wind it's game, set, match every day of the year for the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This is why I laugh when people say that lower SST help keep the coast snow. Short of the ocean being frozen over it's not going to make any difference. Yep, east wind , Party over, every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Look at the CAD signature on the 6z DGEX. The temps warms up just in time when most of the precip pulls away for the coast. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Look at the CAD signature on the 6z DGEX. The temps warms up just in time when most of the precip pulls away for the coast. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Okay, may see wet snow but this upcoming weather pattern will give NYC, slop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 in 1993 there were a few storms with an east wind that gave NYC significant snow before it changed to rain...One was in late February with 4" of snow before it ended as drizzle...The super storm on 3/13...I think there was one in February 2005 that stayed all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 in 1993 there were a few storms with an east wind that gave NYC significant snow before it changed to rain...One was in late February with 4" of snow before it ended as drizzle...The super storm on 3/13...I think there was one in February 2005 that stayed all snow... What was the morning low March 1993 strom ? Did we start out in the teens ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If you get an ESE wind it's game, set, match every day of the year for the south shore. There have been times when it hasn't. February 2005 had at least one system where it stayed all snow on the shore even on an east wind. You need a deep enough cold air mass, and an ocean temp preferably in the low 40s or below. In early December, the water temps are still quite warm, so that's extremely difficult, more so than later into Jan, Feb, or even March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 in 1993 there were a few storms with an east wind that gave NYC significant snow before it changed to rain...One was in late February with 4" of snow before it ended as drizzle...The super storm on 3/13...I think there was one in February 2005 that stayed all snow... That was in February and March and/or with a lighter less influential east wind. So, there are TWO differences from what we have at hand, time of year, and lightness of wind. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 That was in February and March and/or with a lighter less influential east wind. So, there are TWO differences from what we have at hand, time of year, and lightness of wind. WX/PT True, we we're just saying that water temperature makes a big difference in east wind events, when you have a miller B with a primary cutting through WV and SW PA, you want the water temperature to be 40 rather than 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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