Dec 8th - 9th (2nd wave/winter storm discussion)

[jm1220]

It's nice to see now. But there are a few more runs to go to get more comfortable. Even with Dr. no 

Long way to go here. Hopefully we have a couple of weaker waves that we have to sacrifice with rain or a mix to set us up for a larger threat at the end of the chain. Each may bring the colder air down little by little so that it's entrenched enough for the finale. But without a mechanism to force a quick transfer to the coast, we might have to deal with rain at the end anyway after snow/mix. Unless there's some kind of resistance over eastern Canada, the low risks cutting west of the Apps or transferring too late.

[IsentropicLift]

There's something wrong with the Euro snow depth maps on weatherbell. It's showing 1" of snow depth here at 06 hours. So I wouldn't trust them going forward..but thats just me.

I was using stormvista maps not weatherbell which don't show anything until Saturday morning.

[Heisy]

There's something wrong with the Euro snow depth maps on weatherbell. It's showing 1" of snow depth here at 06 hours. So I wouldn't trust them going forward..but thats just me.

 

They're terrible maps, and unfortunately we're going to be victimized by them all winter with people posting them on twitter etc. galore. 

[atownwxwatcher]

There's something wrong with the Euro snow depth maps on weatherbell. It's showing 1" of snow depth here at 06 hours. So I wouldn't trust them going forward..but thats just me.

Shows 1-2 inches here @ ABE at initialization and I can tell you we have no snow on the ground in Allentown PA..

[snywx]

It's nice to see now. But there are a few more runs to go to get more comfortable. Even with Dr. no 

 

We usually do quite well from SWFEs anyway... Its usually a quick thumb of snow followed by zr to end. 

[NEG NAO]

Euro is a solid front end thump. Makes a mess for Monday morning

if you are north and west of 287 -I-80 etc  anyone south and east of there mainly liquid through early next week

[Snow_Miser]

High moving off the coast sreaming e-se-erly winds and if they become ne-erly, they'll be blowing off of a 50 degree Atlantic ocean, 552dm thicknesses, only noteworthy for rain.

WX/PT

WX/PT

 

The GGEM is not only noteworthy for rain. It has 10 mm of accumulated snow in NYC with 15 mm+ further south and west.

 

[Snow_Miser]

 

And hours 90-96 is probably snow or a mix with the 850mb freezing line south of Sandy Hook. Clown maps spitting out 1-3" north of I-80.

 

FWIW, Weatherbell snow maps from the Euro show 5" of snow in SMQ, 6" into FWN and 6" into MMU. Not sure how accurate they are for these inland areas. They look grossly overdone for the coastal locations like NYC. 

[SnowGoose69]

I'll tell you right now I would be more worried about the initial WAA wave being sheared and or suppressed south than so would most of the FA seeing rain I could envision a nightmare scenario whereby the WAA wave suppresses and then the big surface low wave just ends up all rain a very similar scenario occurred here in late January 94 but nobody remembers it because the 1/27 and 2/8 events made us all forget

[Snow_Miser]

I'll tell you right now I would be more worried about the initial WAA wave being sheared and or suppressed south than so would most of the FA seeing rain I could envision a nightmare scenario whereby the WAA wave suppresses and then the big surface low wave just ends up all rain a very similar scenario occurred here in late January 94 but nobody remembers it because the 1/27 and 2/8 events made us all forget

 

Yeah, how quickly the WAA will overcome the CAD is a huge question that is up for grabs. How quickly the low level surface cold erodes is another key question as well. 

[IsentropicLift]

Solid front end dump again on the 18z GFS.

[SnoSki14]

Solid front end dump again on the 18z GFS.

 

Nice high initially to our north, the 18z may potentially be underestimating the CAD scenario as it often tends to do and we'd probably end up colder. It could be pretty slick for a few hours to start before we go to rain. 

[PB GFI]

Looking at some of these surface temps Monday , there`s a lot of upper 20`s with plus 2  850 air, Guys  in NEPA and the Hudson Valley in for an ice storm " if " that's right

[SnowGoose69]

Generally in these events the interior never changes over totally they may go to FZRA but that's it and if you get no deep surface low over the OH valley they may not even get that far

[96blizz]

Generally in these events the interior never changes over totally they may go to FZRA but that's it and if you get no deep surface low over the OH valley they may not even get that far

Since moving to Sussex County from Monmouth on the coast, I've seen how true this is. 

 

It's remarkable how long cold can hang on in these events with every 100' of elevation you add or 25 miles inland you go...

[snywx]

Since moving to Sussex County from Monmouth on the coast, I've seen how true this is. 

 

It's remarkable how long cold can hang on in these events with every 100' of elevation you add or 25 miles inland you go...

 

Like  I said before majority of swfe events up this way come in with a big initial snow dump followed drizzle or freezing drizzle..

[IsentropicLift]

It would be cool if we pulled off a warning criteria icing event. They are extremely rare in this area.

[Superstorm93]

It would be cool if we pulled off a warning criteria icing event. They are extremely rare in this area.

 

It would be kinda cool (strictly from a meteorological standpoint), but also extremely unlikely for this FA. 

 

Now parts of PA? That's a different story...

[eduggs]

Looping the medium range progs, the trough in the west looks almost like a standing wave.  Not much progress eastward.  That should keep this area in the baroclinic zone, which potentially creates multiple precip chances, but might keep them all marginal.  The cold air is reluctant to seep eastward.

 

From years of living in the hudson valley, I echo the sentiments about the frequency of OH Valley lows going from snow thump to drizzle or frdz.  The precip often shuts off before the surface warmth arrives, and saves the snowpack.

 

For snow in and around the City, I would root for a strong eastward push of the boundary... dries things out... and then hope that a pocket of vorticity enhances a wave along the boundary and throws a little moisture back over the cold.  Those types of waves can bring sneaky bands of snow.  I still expect frozen with the Mon system, but I think it quickly mixes near the coast.

[NycStormChaser]

It would be cool if we pulled off a warning criteria icing event. They are extremely rare in this area.

Not sure if I'd call icing events cool lol

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Not sure if I'd call icing events cool lol

Sleet, sure. ZR, hell no. Let's hope this much qpf doesn't fall as freezing rain for anyone; it would not be a pretty situation. 

[hudsonvalley21]

Some more glazing tonight. Already at 28 deg. at 9 pm.

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
805 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

CTZ005>007-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-040400-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
805 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

...PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...AND WESTERN
PASSAIC COUNTY...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND
POCKETS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 DEGREES IS CAUSING PATCHY
FREEZING FOG AND MIST THAT IS PRODUCING LIGHT ICING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW
AREAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

TAKE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WHILE WALKING AND TRAVELING. WHEN
ENCOUNTERING FOG...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...REDUCE SPEED AND
ENSURE EXTRA DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES.

$

MALOIT

[IsentropicLift]

Not sure if I'd call icing events cool lol

I'm talking purely from a weather enthusiasts standpoint.

[snywx]

Some more glazing tonight. Already at 28 deg. at 9 pm.

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

805 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

CTZ005>007-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-040400-

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-

WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-

805 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

...PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS

OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...AND WESTERN

PASSAIC COUNTY...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND

POCKETS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 DEGREES IS CAUSING PATCHY

FREEZING FOG AND MIST THAT IS PRODUCING LIGHT ICING ACROSS PARTS

OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW

AREAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

TAKE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WHILE WALKING AND TRAVELING. WHEN

ENCOUNTERING FOG...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...REDUCE SPEED AND

ENSURE EXTRA DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES.

$

MALOIT

 

 

The past few nights have been like this....   Currently 27F out there.

[BionicMoron]

I'm talking purely from a weather enthusiasts standpoint.

Even from a weather enthusiasts standpoint heavy icing events are meh.  There's no additional excitement or interest gained going from a light icing event to a heavy icing event other than pointless, non-visceral-thrill destruction.

[Snow_Miser]

Front end frozen on the 0z GFS.

[IsentropicLift]

Even from a weather enthusiasts standpoint heavy icing events are meh. There's no additional excitement or interest gained going from a light icing event to a heavy icing event other than pointless, non-visceral-thrill destruction.

I disagree. Severe weather is exciting. My opinion. Same as hurricanes and tornados.

[SnoSki14]

Even from a weather enthusiasts standpoint heavy icing events are meh. There's no additional excitement or interest gained going from a light icing event to a heavy icing event other than pointless, non-visceral-thrill destruction.

They can be interesting from a research meteorological perspective but the impacts can be awful so I agree. Snow is fun, ice is deadly.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This is probably the best run yet for New England. Away from the coast stays all frozen.... I think you guys get a nice thump if the cold holds like it should

[bass28]

The coast holds frozen a solid amount of time atleast a frozen type of precip and on each run the CAD signature is getting stronger and stronger which was to be expected.