SouthCoastMA Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 0.25"+ liquid in 3 hours with good ratios qualifies as heavy snow. Pretty sure that although the model runs in increments of 3 hours, the total precip is for the past 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 It's going to be different next run, just pointing it out. The 06z run had nothing for the area. But every run it changes and that's what I mean. The euro has been the most consistent model at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 But every run it changes and that's what I mean. The euro has been the most consistent model at least for now. To be fair, the 00z Euro had this wave for next Tuesday as well. It was a warmer but still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Don't even bother trying to analyze this storm run by run bottom line the coastal folks will see a solid period of snow from this to start I would say at least an average of 2 inches as of now based purely on similar past events of this type the models never grasp the degree of overrunning precip nor how tough the cold air is to move until 72 hours out Bingo!!! The arctic air is not being handled correctly. I think this event ends up much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Just off topic Jim Cantore just posted this on his twitter account: https://twitter.com/Wright_Weather/status/407907171666378752/photo/1/large. This is Ice pellets by the way. Talk about a winter storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Pretty sure that although the model runs in increments of 3 hours, the total precip is for the past 6 hours. The paid high res maps I have show 3 hour accums. Regardless, the GFS bufkit sounding for KMMU shows 0.249" in 3 hours falling as snow with ratios of 19:1 for a total of 4.6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Agreed. I've seen this happen all too often. The event's still in the D 5-6 range. If anyone thinks the current proggs are the final solution, well that's far from reality. Could it get even worse and warmer? Possibly. If the low ends up more amplified it will take a more inland track and torch most of the east coast. As we've discussed here, the regime to hope for is a series of weak lows that progressively lower heights in the Northeast so that the following weak low can lay down a trail of snow and ice. Intense, wound up storms are no good in a pattern where there's little to block their poleward movement. The low level cold air will be pressing next week so we'll see if any favorable changes occur in modeling the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 12z GGEM is back to showing something noteworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Gonna come down to the strength of the GL wave and the wave sitting off the coast. 93-94 redux Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like a 1-3" front end thump for many (I-95 and west). I like the trend. Might be the first accumulating snow of the season for many. And of course I probably just jinxed it... I think the sleet is the wild card here, I wonder how long the cold air will hold on before the changeover to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like a 1-3" front end thump for many (I-95 and west). I like the trend. Might be the first accumulating snow of the season for many. And of course I probably just jinxed it... I think the sleet is the wild card here, I wonder how long the cold air will hold on before the changeover to rain. Probably a legit advisory level event given the combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain. I just hate this fragile setups we seem to have all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 12z GGEM is back to showing something noteworthy The 12z GGEM is back to showing something noteworthy High moving off the coast sreaming e-se-erly winds and if they become ne-erly, they'll be blowing off of a 50 degree Atlantic ocean, 552dm thicknesses, only noteworthy for rain. WX/PT WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 High moving off the coast sreaming e-se-erly winds and if they become ne-erly, they'll be blowing off of a 50 degree Atlantic ocean, 552dm thicknesses, only noteworthy for rain. WX/PT WX/PT Maybe for the coast, but not for inland areas and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 High moving off the coast sreaming e-se-erly winds and if they become ne-erly, they'll be blowing off of a 50 degree Atlantic ocean, 552dm thicknesses, only noteworthy for rain. WX/PT WX/PT There's a weaker HP over NC, preventing a changeover to rain. It's countering the SE winds from the stronger HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Hour 84 on the 12z Euro is moderate rain and mid 30's north of I-80. Might be a close call for the interior folks. And hours 90-96 is probably snow or a mix with the 850mb freezing line south of Sandy Hook. Clown maps spitting out 1-3" north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 12z changes northeast PA to some light snow on the first wave, storm is over by the time it gets cold enough every where else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 12z Euro is definitely equally as colder aloft this run. At hour 120 the 850mb freezing line is south of DC. Surface looks warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro is a solid front end thump. Makes a mess for Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Snow to ice to rain hours 132-144 north and west of the city. Low level cold air hanging on a little bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro is a solid front end thump. Makes a mess for Monday morning The clown maps show virtually no accumulation southeast of I-95. Not saying it's going to be the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Pretty solid warning criteria snow event for Rockland count on northward before everyone flips to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro looks solid for next Tuesday as well in terms of QPF. Looks quite juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro looks solid for next Tuesday as well in terms of QPF. Looks quite juiced. can you please share the website you use for the euro? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro looks solid for next Tuesday as well in terms of QPF. Looks quite juiced. Does boston providence corridor get anything other than a cold rain with that euro solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 can you please share the website you use for the euro? thanks It's storm vista. Paid service. Snow maps show a foot plus over the next seven days over much of interior upstate NY down through central and western PA and down even into northern Arkansas. We get 2.50"-3.00"+ of QPF during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Does boston providence corridor get anything other than a cold rain with that euro solution? Boston area gets a couple inches. Most the snow in the northeast is confined to the lower Hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 N&W of philly get hammered on 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 There's something wrong with the Euro snow depth maps on weatherbell. It's showing 1" of snow depth here at 06 hours. So I wouldn't trust them going forward..but thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Hammered? Cmon dude.... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Boston area gets a couple inches. Most the snow in the northeast is confined to the lower Hudson valley. It's nice to see now. But there are a few more runs to go to get more comfortable. Even with Dr. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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