GD0815 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The pattern is more promising than one might think. At least it's not a full on coast to coast torch like in past Decembers. The pattern is pretty epic for the Pacific NW and the amount of cold coming down for the northern plains is nothing to sneeze at either. They'll be seeing downright dangerous wind chills of -30 to -40 or lower. Yes, but the majority of the cold will be to our west...the SE ridge can be a killer for winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yes, but the majority of the cold will be to our west...the SE ridge can be a killer for winter weather What we need is a weak/moderate SE ridge and the cold over us but not too deep, that way we get a good battleground and hopefully we're on the cold side of the waves moving ENE along the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 00z GFS has a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I went to your website and went through the archives just by chance...I read your analysis (before, during and after the Feb 2013 blizzard) and must say that both the writing you did + the graphics you provided were pretty much the best I've seen related to that storm... Thank you. Sorry for the delay in the response as I only now got a chance to read through the last few pages. Regarding this storm, I would tend to think at least some front end snow or mix should fall, as there currently appears to be enough cold air initially in place thanks to the anomalously strong -EPO despite the positive 500mb height anomalies as others here have noted, but the southeast ridge in place and going by past experience does concern me regarding more amplification and a faster changeover to rain should it start as snow. This is still about 6 days out though and if this fall's medium range model verification is of any indication, it is still too early to determine the exact setup and how much snow vs. rain will fall with certainty. At least we're already tracking frozen precipitation potentials in early December and not stuck in a coast-to-coast warm pattern as with the last 2 Decembers waiting until the very end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 There will be quite a temperature contrast over Texas Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On the recent models, the primary low doesn't transfer until it reaches the SNE area. We need it to transfer much quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On the recent models, the primary low doesn't transfer until it reaches the SNE area. We need it to transfer much quicker. This isn't a noreaster or even a miller type event....more of a swfe in a gradient pattern where the cold air just erodes quickly due to the intense waa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 On the recent models, the primary low doesn't transfer until it reaches the SNE area. We need it to transfer much quicker. This one doesn't get it done Anth , the trough axis is too far west and the systems are all gona cut either to your west or too close to you . And your winds are SE or E . Without any Atlantic help the cold air is easily routed on the coastal plain , if anything the Euro has gone is the wrong direction and the Euro control run has this as a wet event for 4 runs now . Hard to argue with the Euro , its seeing the pattern correctly. When the cold air comes the Neg EPO does its job it gets it if from the right source , but its in and out and the Highs get out of the way rather easily as systems approach them . Just MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like a mostly rain event for 99% of the area with 2-3" of rain possible this week. Overall things look strung out and meh. The rain doesn't even get terribly heavy unless the 00z GFS ends up correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 0z Euro actually holds on to CAD longer than GFS, for more snow and ice NW of I-95. But near the coast winds turn SE, for a quick changeover from snow to rain, Sunday night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like a mostly rain event for 99% of the area with 2-3" of rain possible this week. Overall things look strung out and meh. The rain doesn't even get terribly heavy unless the 00z GFS ends up correct. I wouldn't give up yet. Things can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 the euro isn't even good for new england. also, soundings show the warmest layer around 800 mb so 850 mb maps won't show where the mix line is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The main reason that it's going to be too warm here is that the high will be exiting the coast instead of hanging back like we saw in 2008. Any initial cold air will get scoured out pretty quickly as the winds turn onshore. Optimal set up Unfavorable set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 the flow was also less meridonal in 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We would have faired better with a stronger high, even given the poor placement. A 1032mb as modeled by the GFS isn't going to produce a good CAD setup. Earlier modeling had this high in the 1040mb+ range. It's still nearly a week out and a lot can change, but this looks like another moderate to heavy rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The DGEX has a blizzard for the area. It remains on the cold side of guidance. The DGEX can be useful for surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The dgex is about as useful as breasts on a bull. Use the mm5 for the hi-res stuff....not this heap of trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 the flow was also less meridonal in 2008 It's very hard to get a memorable swfe event here. For all the good ones that people remember, there are many more that never produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 It's very hard to get a memorable swfe event here. For all the good ones that people remember, there are many more that never produce. There are some that can work out though-wasn't Dec 19-20, 1995 a SWFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 There are some that can work out though-wasn't Dec 19-20, 1995 a SWFE? 12/20/95 was a coastal storm...sort of a hybrid Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The dgex is about as useful as breasts on a bull. Use the mm5 for the hi-res stuff....not this heap of trash. The dgex has its usefulness if you know how to use it properly. Also, we're only talking a day 6 forecast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The GFS is colder already out to 120. So we got that going for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The GFS is colder already out to 120. So we got that going for us... It's going to have a decent front end dump this run for the northern burbs, problem is that while it's cold enough for snow most of the good moisture is from Philly south. What the GFS is showing at 126 and 129 is probably virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 By hour 138 the cold air is history. Both the surface and 850 freezing lines are up into upstate NY. Poconos and Orange County getting some snow. Secondary development east of ACY at 141. Just a colder rain this run. Clown maps show 1-3" of snow NW of I-95. Legit ZR threat for far northern Sussex County up into Sullivan County. Rain totals are 1.5-2.00"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Don't even bother trying to analyze this storm run by run bottom line the coastal folks will see a solid period of snow from this to start I would say at least an average of 2 inches as of now based purely on similar past events of this type the models never grasp the degree of overrunning precip nor how tough the cold air is to move until 72 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 12z GFS actually looks better next Tuesday. It's digging more with the trough which keeps the front near our area and yet another wave develops. It's snowing hard NW of the city at hour 171. 850 freezing line is like 75-100 miles offshore. Surface freezing line is hung up over I-95. It's a 4-8" type deal NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 12z GFS actually looks better next Tuesday. It's digging more with the trough which keeps the front near our area and yet another wave develops. It's snowing hard NW of the city at hour 171. 850 freezing line is like 75-100 miles offshore. Surface freezing line is hung up over I-95. It's a 4-8" type deal NW of the city. Tuesday looks interesting but it's not "snowing hard" NW of the city. Please less hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Tuesday looks interesting but it's not "snowing hard" NW of the city. Please less hype. 0.25"+ liquid in 3 hours with good ratios qualifies as heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 0.25"+ liquid in 3 hours with good ratios qualifies as heavy snow. I really hope so, but it's hard to trust the GFS these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I really hope so, but it's hard to trust the GFS these days It's going to be different next run, just pointing it out. The 06z run had nothing for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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