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Dec 8th - 9th (2nd wave/winter storm discussion)


Zelocita Weather

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GFS has a pretty sizeable winter storm for us late the 8th into the 9th (3rd wave). Probably changing to mix/rain but definately accumulating snow on the front end verbatim.

 

I think that's the one to watch. GFS looks like it has a moderate snow event with that just by quickly glancing at it. GGEM also looks like it has a fairly sizable winter storm Day 7 as well.

 

f162.gif

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It does look like an icy setup instead of a classic snowstorm where the mid levels warm but the surface remains subfreezing.

 You beat me by 2 mins . These SWFE love to dump ice and sleet where the low level cold air hangs on

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I think that's the one to watch. GFS looks like it has a moderate snow event with that just by quickly glancing at it. GGEM also looks like it has a fairly sizable winter storm Day 7 as well.

 

f162.gif

That would likely be quick snow to sleet/ice. Notice the strong SW flow aloft. Also note the 850 low track-if that goes over or west of you, you're almost certain to turn to sleet.

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That high is in a pretty much perfect position or at least the northeast. Would not shock me too see you guys pick up several inches of snow. Cold air is going to hang TOUGH

Why would you say that the "cold air is going to hang TOUGH"? How do you know that? I would say it's unlikely, possible but unlikely. Heights are near 570 screaming upper level winds out of the sw and you're dealing shallow cold air that isn't that cold. And, there's really not much high lattitude blocking, maybe some, but minimal at best!

WX/PT

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Why would you say that the "cold air is going to hang TOUGH"? How do you know that? I would say it's unlikely, possible but unlikely. Heights are near 570 screaming upper level winds out of the sw and you're dealing shallow cold air that isn't that cold. And, there's really not much high lattitude blocking, maybe some, but minimal at best!

WX/PT

I don't know man, that's a pretty good arctic airmass ahead of the storm with good high pressure in Quebec so not sure what you're saying that the cold is shallow.

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I think we need to wait until at least Thursday before we start to get a decent idea of what the temperature profile looks like for this system. I think the general idea of snow to ice to rain looks to be a good bet as of now, but the question is how much precipitation overall, and what percentage of the precipitation will be what precipitation type. There will be a High to the north, but the intensity of that high is crucial for the intensity of the CAD. If the system amplifies, it quickly floods us with warm air, and vice versa. There is a lot to be sorted out still. 

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Why would you say that the "cold air is going to hang TOUGH"? How do you know that? I would say it's unlikely, possible but unlikely. Heights are near 570 screaming upper level winds out of the sw and you're dealing shallow cold air that isn't that cold. And, there's really not much high lattitude blocking, maybe some, but minimal at best!

WX/PT

 

So no frozen precipitation is your call?

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So no frozen precipitation is your call?

It's early, but the way these maps look, I would not think we'd get much frozen if any. Perhaps a little at the start or end of the event. But I'm really not impressed at all. Generally, in order to get accumulating snow (there's no rule on this), but 564-570 heights are too high.  If they come down, then there's a chance for more frozen here. As of now, the frozen looks more like central and northern New England and central PA, Poconos, parts of the Hudson Valley, Catskills, central NY State, maybe. But the maps can change and we shall see how things trend as we get closer.

WX/PT

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