Quakertown needs snow Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Got to break down that SE ridge. Hopefully don't need to say that all wnter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Got to break down that SE ridge. Hopefully don't need to say that all wnter. We don't want it to break down too much because then Virginia gets the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 We want blocking/confluence with a weak SE ridge. Sometimes we can have too much of either one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 So I'm guessing we could forget about frozen precipitation? It really sucks we have such a bad Atlantic as even a little blocking could have been huge for us. Not at all. Too early to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Looks like wave #1 is rain, wave #2 is mostly rain (maybe ending as a mix), and then #3 would be our shot on the 8th/9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 GFS has a pretty sizeable winter storm for us late the 8th into the 9th (3rd wave). Probably changing to mix/rain but definately accumulating snow on the front end verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Looks like a this would be an ice storm set up actually. Mid-levels look to spike as the low approaches, meanwhile there's that strong high pressure system to the north, which is why the surface is staying so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 GFS has a pretty sizeable winter storm for us late the 8th into the 9th (3rd wave). Probably changing to mix/rain but definately accumulating snow on the front end verbatim. I think that's the one to watch. GFS looks like it has a moderate snow event with that just by quickly glancing at it. GGEM also looks like it has a fairly sizable winter storm Day 7 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It does look like an icy setup instead of a classic snowstorm where the mid levels warm but the surface remains subfreezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It does look like an icy setup instead of a classic snowstorm where the mid levels warm but the surface remains subfreezing. You beat me by 2 mins . These SWFE love to dump ice and sleet where the low level cold air hangs on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 12z GGEM total snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 As others have mentioned, SWFE events tend to be snow to ice to rain. The GGEM has a good amount of IP as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I think that's the one to watch. GFS looks like it has a moderate snow event with that just by quickly glancing at it. GGEM also looks like it has a fairly sizable winter storm Day 7 as well. That would likely be quick snow to sleet/ice. Notice the strong SW flow aloft. Also note the 850 low track-if that goes over or west of you, you're almost certain to turn to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That would likely be quick snow to sleet/ice. Notice the strong SW flow aloft. Also note the 850 low track-if that goes over or west of you, you're almost certain to turn to sleet. GGEM accumulated precipitation maps from Meteocentre have around 5 or so mm of sleet, and 10-15 mm of snow, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro looks like it's the warmest model of the 12z guidance. Snow to ice to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro looks like it's the warmest model of the 12z guidance. Snow to ice to rain. Most of this is at this point likely to be mostly rain for most of us. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro just shifted way east on this run. With the 1030+ high up north, I wouldn't be shocked to see it trend eastm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The 12z GGEM has a rain/snow mix for the area next Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Most of this is at this point likely to be mostly rain for most of us. WX/PT I don't think you can confidently say that for the Day 7 overrunning potential quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The 12z Euro has yet another event to watch day 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That high is in a pretty much perfect position or at least the northeast. Would not shock me too see you guys pick up several inches of snow. Cold air is going to hang TOUGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Mid and upper levels warm with thicknesses at 546 +. Surface is below freezing for the first 6 hrs of the event NW of 95 but there after the flow is out of the south and the BL warms up. This would like start as a form of ice and change over to a cold rain verbatim the ECM @ 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 You guys still haven't learned with the euro and it's temps after years this far out...?will place bets it's gonna continue to be the warmest model til a day before the event if it even happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I think I can and did. WX/PT Pretty bold forecast considering the event is 6-7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That high is in a pretty much perfect position or at least the northeast. Would not shock me too see you guys pick up several inches of snow. Cold air is going to hang TOUGH Why would you say that the "cold air is going to hang TOUGH"? How do you know that? I would say it's unlikely, possible but unlikely. Heights are near 570 screaming upper level winds out of the sw and you're dealing shallow cold air that isn't that cold. And, there's really not much high lattitude blocking, maybe some, but minimal at best! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Why would you say that the "cold air is going to hang TOUGH"? How do you know that? I would say it's unlikely, possible but unlikely. Heights are near 570 screaming upper level winds out of the sw and you're dealing shallow cold air that isn't that cold. And, there's really not much high lattitude blocking, maybe some, but minimal at best! WX/PT I don't know man, that's a pretty good arctic airmass ahead of the storm with good high pressure in Quebec so not sure what you're saying that the cold is shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I don't know man, that's a pretty good arctic airmass ahead of the storm with good high pressure in Quebec so not sure what you're saying that the cold is shallow. This, maybe better or New England than this area, but still impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I think we need to wait until at least Thursday before we start to get a decent idea of what the temperature profile looks like for this system. I think the general idea of snow to ice to rain looks to be a good bet as of now, but the question is how much precipitation overall, and what percentage of the precipitation will be what precipitation type. There will be a High to the north, but the intensity of that high is crucial for the intensity of the CAD. If the system amplifies, it quickly floods us with warm air, and vice versa. There is a lot to be sorted out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Why would you say that the "cold air is going to hang TOUGH"? How do you know that? I would say it's unlikely, possible but unlikely. Heights are near 570 screaming upper level winds out of the sw and you're dealing shallow cold air that isn't that cold. And, there's really not much high lattitude blocking, maybe some, but minimal at best! WX/PT So no frozen precipitation is your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 So no frozen precipitation is your call? It's early, but the way these maps look, I would not think we'd get much frozen if any. Perhaps a little at the start or end of the event. But I'm really not impressed at all. Generally, in order to get accumulating snow (there's no rule on this), but 564-570 heights are too high. If they come down, then there's a chance for more frozen here. As of now, the frozen looks more like central and northern New England and central PA, Poconos, parts of the Hudson Valley, Catskills, central NY State, maybe. But the maps can change and we shall see how things trend as we get closer. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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