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Dec 8th - 9th (2nd wave/winter storm discussion)


Zelocita Weather

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The heavy snow band is barely moving north

 

2/6/10 all over again.

No, and no! Firstly, this is not a big event aside from its being the first truly measurable snowfall of more than a trace. Secondly, it takes time for the moisture to infiltrate the dry air and dome of high pressure to our north. As the high starts to give way and the cold dry air at 850mb starts to erode, the snow band/s will lift n-ward. 2/6/10 was a coastal storm, this is NOT. I would think light snow breaks out in the NYC/Long Island area between 3-5pm.

WX/PT

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No, and no! Firstly, this is not a big event aside from its being the first truly measurable snowfall of more than a trace. Secondly, it takes time for the moisture to infiltrate the dry air and dome of high pressure to our north. As the high starts to give way and the cold dry air at 850mb starts to erode, the snow band/s will lift n-ward. 2/6/10 was a coastal storm, this is NOT. I would think light snow breaks out in the NYC/Long Island area between 3-5pm.

WX/PT

between 3 and 5 or even later has been the forecast the last few days

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No, and no! Firstly, this is not a big event aside from its being the first truly measurable snowfall of more than a trace. Secondly, it takes time for the moisture to infiltrate the dry air and dome of high pressure to our north. As the high starts to give way and the cold dry air at 850mb starts to erode, the snow band/s will lift n-ward. 2/6/10 was a coastal storm, this is NOT. I would think light snow breaks out in the NYC/Long Island area between 3-5pm.

WX/PT

Huh? This is the biggest snowstorm for Philly in years
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The RGEM has basically been dead on now 3 straight runs in a row,I joked last night how it was going 2/6/10 on us, its 12Z run today along with the GGEM seem to be the best models through 18Z with the snow in NJ...below is its 12Z run depiction valid through 18z...unfortunately it never gets the snow up here til 00Z...the RAP/HRRR are a bit more optimistic with something earlier...I think the snow will generally get into NYC by 21-22Z but it won't be terribly heavy thus holding with a coating-2 inches but I'll need to see some hints of bands into here if the 2 is gonna happen.

 

gemregPR12.3.gif?t=1386525927

 

I think the Rgem is still the best short range model we have and it isn't even close.

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