Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 6z gfs also improved with frozen before the changeover, and moved 'nose' of precip north....not as juicy as nam but still prints out .2 to .3 before changeover for most of area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Nam shows .50+ precip up to NYC which apears frozen before the changeover. the key to how much snow we end up with is how fast the precip saturates all the layers and begins reaching the ground - the faster the better if you like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Do we know where the "saturation" line is currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Its not my observation but seen reports of flurries or light snow for very far south east pa/md border and also coating reported in wildwood nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 lol...they just locked the Poll because it was getting too close. philly people....pshh http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41656-should-philly-and-nyc-be-merged-back-together/page-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 the precip is going to have a difficult time the next several hours making it past southeast PA and southern NJ http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yep for snowflakes on the Chester County Lancaster County borderline in southeast PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 31.3 in Lynbrook, Long island as of 10:35AM feels like snow. Can anyone tell me on the NOAA site, where to get their prediction graphic of snow and qpf? Forget where they keep it..thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 12z gfs got much more juicy for c nj.....25"+ and a solid area of mod snow from rt. 78 south.... Huge move to the nam...both models very similar at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The Nam has gotten colder and has nearly a .5" of precip before the changeover which is like 2-4" at least. I'm not buying that, but an inch or two is definitely on the table. The temperatures are a bit colder than expected and the cloud cover will keep them colder today. You can see the NAM cold bias at work here as the temperatures are already several degrees above the 12z forecast. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 32 14 47 NE9 30.61S WCI 24 LAGUARDIA APRT CLOUDY 32 15 49 NE9 30.59F WCI 24 KENNEDY INTL CLOUDY 33 15 47 NE10 30.60F WCI 25 NEWARK/LIBERTY CLOUDY 31 16 54 N7 30.59F WCI 24 TETERBORO CLOUDY 32 15 49 N3 30.59F $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The GFS and NAM differences are big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Umm. Not the way I see it. The NAM has most of Northern New Jersey down for about 5 inches of snow and the GFS has Northern New Jersey down for a dusting to an inch. Not exactly the same. 12z gfs got much more juicy for c nj.....25"+ and a solid area of mod snow from rt. 78 south.... Huge move to the nam...both models very similar at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 If we can have something like 35/25 when the snow starts we should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 12z gfs got much more juicy for c nj.....25"+ and a solid area of mod snow from rt. 78 south.... Huge move to the nam...both models very similar at this point For ewr the gfs has less than a tenth of frozen while the nam would be at least 2-4", still many differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Misleading as your just pointing out near the coast. In PA, its spot on and even too warm in spots that are not seeing snow too. A few degrees off at the coast is expected in the models. You can see the NAM cold bias at work here as the temperatures are already several degrees above the 12z forecast. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSCENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 32 14 47 NE9 30.61S WCI 24LAGUARDIA APRT CLOUDY 32 15 49 NE9 30.59F WCI 24KENNEDY INTL CLOUDY 33 15 47 NE10 30.60F WCI 25NEWARK/LIBERTY CLOUDY 31 16 54 N7 30.59F WCI 24TETERBORO CLOUDY 32 15 49 N3 30.59F$ temp4.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Nam shows .50+ precip up to NYC which apears frozen before the changeover. Up here for KSWF, the 12z NAM has backed off to .27 qpf from the 06z run that had .53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=okx looks like mid levels are getting a little more saturated . Should bring temps down a few degrees once it starts to snow as it should cool the column . How fast this gets to the surface will determine the winner of the GFS or NAM s analysis . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 If we can have something like 35/25 when the snow starts we should be fine. The rain snow line looks to push into LI and the City between 7-10 pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 7 seems a bit early. The rain snow line looks to push into LI and the City between 7-10 pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 the most you can expect from this system in NYC surrounding immediate local NJ counties and LI is an inch or less then by tomorrow morning completely washed away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yes, but how much of that was snow on each run? Big differences here. Up here for KSWF, the 12z NAM has backed off to .27 qpf from the 06z run that had .53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The NAM has become so bad due to all the new "upgrades" its basically unuseable even 12 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 7 seems a bit early. It should be just south of BLM by 7 pm and through the South Shore LI between 9-10 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 think your a bit too fast and also missing some sleet as well. will see how it plays out though. Im also not convinced the gfs is as right as some say here. It may be too dry and not handling any meso banding thta could occur. It should be just south of BLM by 7 pm and through the South Shore LI between 9-10 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 think your a bit too fast and also missing some sleet as well. will see how it plays out though. Im also not convinced the gfs is as right as some say here. It may be too dry and not handling any meso banding thta could occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 yes? have you looked to see how the models initialized vs this profile. Actually nearly spot on. they see the dry air that was observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 think your a bit too fast and also missing some sleet as well. will see how it plays out though. Im also not convinced the gfs is as right as some say here. It may be too dry and not handling any meso banding thta could occur. I think we change to sleet first. The HRRR keeps a sharp-cut off this afternoon around I-78 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yes, but how much of that was snow on each run? Big differences here. 12z has 1" of snow then ZR, where the 06z had 3" then ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Upton MONITORING UPSTREAM OBS CLOSELY TO SEE THEIR QPF OVER THE NEXT FEWHOURS TO SEE IF SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST NEEDS TO BE INCREASED. THEREIS POSSIBILITY FOR FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS TO INCREASE 1-2 INCHESWITH SUBSEQUENTLY A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WINTER WX ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 think your a bit too fast and also missing some sleet as well. will see how it plays out though. Im also not convinced the gfs is as right as some say here. It may be too dry and not handling any meso banding thta could occur. I count the mix with sleet as the beginning of the changeover making the South Shore beaches by 10 pm as the models may be underestimating the warming at 850-800 with the strong SW LLJ. The GFS has a nice sleet profile into Central Jersey around 0z on the leading edge of the strong SW LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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