MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Jeff Smith is going with 1-3 inches for the city with a high of 35. Snow comes in around 3 pm and changes over around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'm thinking up to an inch for the city and coastal areas and places up to I-287. 1-3" northwest of that, plus several hours of freezing rain/drizzle. My thinking as well.... Up here the main threat is the zr. Gonna be a rough AM commute on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 00Z GEM precip into area at 21Z...its quite similar to the GFS now on the Tuesday deal but still seems more suppresed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 00Z GEM precip into area at 21Z...its quite similar to the GFS now on the Tuesday deal but still seems more suppresed 0z GGEM for tomorrow's storm is more north with the initial precip than what the 12z run showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Someone should start an obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 SPC WRF is in and has a 23-00Z start time here...looks very similar to the HRRR overall...the biggest surprise so far tonight is the higher res models swinging towards a much later start time in the DC area and parts of MD and DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 SPC WRF is in and has a 23-00Z start time here...looks very similar to the HRRR overall...the biggest surprise so far tonight is the higher res models swinging towards a much later start time in the DC area and parts of MD and DE. Does the WRF have P-type, I looked around and couldnt find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Does the WRF have P-type, I looked around and couldnt find it. No, not that I can tell...was just discussing in the MA thread how none of the models at 00Z grasped the precip currently over TN/KY particularly well through 06Z...the RGEM and SPC WRF were the best but still not great, GFS and NAM were out to lunch on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro shows a few inches for nyc before tye changeover. More north and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 No, not that I can tell...was just discussing in the MA thread how none of the models at 00Z grasped the precip currently over TN/KY particularly well through 06Z...the RGEM and SPC WRF were the best but still not great, GFS and NAM were out to lunch on it. So what does that exactly mean for tomorrow? Just that the WRF and RGEM should be chosen over the GFS and NAM for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro shows a few inches for nyc before tye changeover. More north and cold. 00z ECM keeps the heaviest QPF south of NYC ... only light QPF into the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Looks like 3 - 5 Philly C NJ and 2 - 3 NYC per WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The 0z NAM showed a warm nose between 700-850mb around 3z-6z. So snowfall totals maybe cut down by sleet on 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 00z ECM keeps the heaviest QPF south of NYC ... only light QPF into the area... heaviest.png Thats the 06-12Z time period, its probably rain by then, the 00-06z or 18-00 time frame would be more meaningful for any snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Thats the 06-12Z time period, its probably rain by then, the 00-06z or 18-00 time frame would be more meaningful for any snow chances Here is that frame then ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Not sure what made noaa downgrade snow totals N+W of NYC... But a WWA currently issued for my area.. Last night forecasted at 1-3.. This morning, 1 inch possible... I thought models looked a bit colder IMO but I didn't see the gfs so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Looks like 3 - 5 Philly C NJ and 2 - 3 NYC per WxBell. And what have we learned about weather bell??? No more weather bell snow maps please. We all know they r wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 And what have we learned about weather bell??? No more weather bell snow maps please. We all know they r wrong. Dude , Its not a "weatherbell " map , the algo prints out 10 to 1 ratio based on what the model says . The Euro is printing .02 inches of liquid in through minus 2 air at 850 with surface temps at 33- 34 throught CNJ, That's reasonable . If it doesn't happen its cause the model busted not the algo . Hopefully in the dead of winter those maps are gona bust the other way when 15 to 1 ratios goes off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The good news right now is clouds are in so temps not gonna move today and virga is moving in earlier then expected. Gonna be an interesting afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Dude , Its not a "weatherbell " map , the algo prints out 10 to 1 ratio based on what the model says . The Euro is printing .02 inches of liquid in through minus 2 air at 850 with surface temps at 33- 34 throught CNJ, That's reasonable . If it doesn't happen its cause the model busted not the algo . Hopefully in the dead of winter those maps are gona bust the other way when 15 to 1 ratios goes off Dude I know. But the algorithm it uses is useless. That's all I was getting at. I guess I'm sry I used the word map when I should have said crappy snowfall map using a terrible algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Lol, the NAM has a lot of front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Lol, the NAM has a lot of front end snow. Wow it's mad juicy wtf is up with this model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The Nam has gotten colder and has nearly a .5" of precip before the changeover which is like 2-4" at least. I'm not buying that, but an inch or two is definitely on the table. The temperatures are a bit colder than expected and the cloud cover will keep them colder today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The Nam has gotten colder and has nearly a .5" of precip before the changeover which is like 2-4" at least. I'm not buying that, but an inch or two is definitely on the table. The temperatures are a bit colder than expected and the cloud cover will keep them colder today. The NAM appears to be seeing a mesoscale band developing off of some sort of frontogenesis max, may be legit may be not, there is a hint of it in several of the high res models and the 12Z Hi RES NAM is seeing it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The NAM appears to be seeing a mesoscale band developing off of some sort of frontogenesis max, may be legit may be not, there is a hint of it in several of the high res models and the 12Z Hi RES NAM is seeing it too Yeh it may def took the best lifting north with the WAA wants to throw 2- 4 from CNJ north across the city . Its seeing a deeper layer of cold initially at the surface , while the 850`s roar north . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The NAM appears to be seeing a mesoscale band developing off of some sort of frontogenesis max, may be legit may be not, there is a hint of it in several of the high res models and the 12Z Hi RES NAM is seeing it tooDriving. Where does it set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Cut in half its a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Nam shows .50+ precip up to NYC which apears frozen before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Nam shows .50+ precip up to NYC which apears frozen before the changeover. If only it weren't the Nam, though I can't totally discount it since it's under 12 hrs now, maybe the gfs will increase its amounts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 If only it weren't the Nam, though I can't totally discount it since it's under 12 hrs now, maybe the gfs will increase its amounts as well. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=018ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_018_precip_p12.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.