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Dec 8th - 9th (2nd wave/winter storm discussion)


Zelocita Weather

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Of course the HRRR is down right now or has not run for 6 hours, but the Rapid Refresh which I have never used and I do not know how it performs is showing THIS at 16Z tomorrow...this is composite reflectivity...not base so its without a doubt overdone but weenies rejoice and meteorologists keep in the back of your mind...


 


cref_t3sfc_f18.png


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Of course the HRRR is down right now or has not run for 6 hours, but the Rapid Refresh which I have never used and I do not know how it performs is showing THIS at 16Z tomorrow...this is composite reflectivity...not base so its without a doubt overdone but weenies rejoice and meteorologists keep in the back of your mind...

 

FYI, the RAP did poorly yesterday (especially the longer lead time run) in the central PA region, overestimating the banding associated with the frontal wave after 00z Saturday.

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Of course the HRRR is down right now or has not run for 6 hours, but the Rapid Refresh which I have never used and I do not know how it performs is showing THIS at 16Z tomorrow...this is composite reflectivity...not base so its without a doubt overdone but weenies rejoice and meteorologists keep in the back of your mind...

 

This map would imply moderate snow associated with the finger of precip in response to the best lift. This area is setup over extreme south central and southeast pa. Like u said ... some red flags are up concerning this setup.

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I'll be curious to see the RGEM 00z... It usually does well within a 24 hr period.. However it didn't do so well with the rain/snow line on last nights wave

 

The 18Z RGEM was on the NAM's idea but was not quite as far north as the NAM overall but it did have precipitation almost into the area by 18Z tomorrow.

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The 00Z RGEM goes very 2/6/10 on us basically had the precip up to Sandy Hook by 18Z but then does not really get it in here til 21-22Z or so.

00Z GFS is also struggling to get the precip to the NYC area for a period before the 850mb temps rise to above 0 degrees tomorrow night.

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GFS is still south but compared to its 12Z run is significantly more north with precip from 18-00Z over NJ....I don't forsee any changes to my forecast other than maybe moving start time up to 21-22Z especially for JFK...NWS Upton currently has snow starting at 23Z at JFK

 

What is your forecast.

A  slushy inch for the city?

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If the NAM is ever gona pick up WAA it mayb now. It could b the resolution of the GFS doesn't see it.

If this the NAM is off here too , then I can't see a scenario where it could be used.

Let's hope it's higher res is seeing something if not I will punt this model all winter.

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What is your forecast.

A  slushy inch for the city?

 

I'll be forecasting all night til 6am tonight but as of now I am probably going with roughly 21-22Z start time changing over to rain by 06Z....I've been going coating-2 inches in the city area the last 2 days and don't plan on changing that...I like the RGEM/hi Res NAM for start times, NAM may be too early and GFS I think is just way to off base still on not seeing the WAA precip.

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