WeatherFox Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Their forecast is almost identical to NWS... I'll go with a general 1-3"(fingers crossed)... I really can't stand TWC anymore. it's all political forecasting and non sense Good luck. You have a better shot at 3" than us NYC folks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Good luck. You have a better shot at 3" than us NYC folks . At least we may all get to see some flakes fly tomorrow evening... Should be nice for a couple hours with Xmas lights and whatnot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 15Z SREF brings a 20% chance of light snow to the John F. Kennedy airport area on Sunday, 12/08/13 after 12PMand to New York's Laguardia airport after 3:00PM. Probability of Precipitation increases as we progress to the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Of course the HRRR is down right now or has not run for 6 hours, but the Rapid Refresh which I have never used and I do not know how it performs is showing THIS at 16Z tomorrow...this is composite reflectivity...not base so its without a doubt overdone but weenies rejoice and meteorologists keep in the back of your mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Of course the HRRR is down right now or has not run for 6 hours, but the Rapid Refresh which I have never used and I do not know how it performs is showing THIS at 16Z tomorrow...this is composite reflectivity...not base so its without a doubt overdone but weenies rejoice and meteorologists keep in the back of your mind... FYI, the RAP did poorly yesterday (especially the longer lead time run) in the central PA region, overestimating the banding associated with the frontal wave after 00z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The HRRR is back up from its nap and is out as far as 13Z...hopefully it stays up and running from here on out...nothing earth shattering as of the 13Z period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The HRRR is back up from its nap and is out as far as 13Z...hopefully it stays up and running from here on out...nothing earth shattering as of the 13Z period... Any value in this image? I see nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Just precip to our SW streaking northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Any value in this image? I see nothing... I think he was giving a 13z reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Of course the HRRR is down right now or has not run for 6 hours, but the Rapid Refresh which I have never used and I do not know how it performs is showing THIS at 16Z tomorrow...this is composite reflectivity...not base so its without a doubt overdone but weenies rejoice and meteorologists keep in the back of your mind... This map would imply moderate snow associated with the finger of precip in response to the best lift. This area is setup over extreme south central and southeast pa. Like u said ... some red flags are up concerning this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 SREFs no help at all from prior runs...they are wetter though with the Tuesday wave yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Nam is nice for the area. Snowier and colder than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Nam is nice for the area. Snowier and colder than previous runs. seems like noaa isn't even considering the NAM but more of a gfs/ euro blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Nam is nice for the area. Snowier and colder than previous runs. NAM blows under 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM blows under 2 hours. Still needs to be taken into consideration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM blows under 2 hours. I'll be curious to see the RGEM 00z... It usually does well within a 24 hr period.. However it didn't do so well with the rain/snow line on last nights wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Still needs to be taken into consideration Very little consideration.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'll be curious to see the RGEM 00z... It usually does well within a 24 hr period.. However it didn't do so well with the rain/snow line on last nights wave The 18Z RGEM was on the NAM's idea but was not quite as far north as the NAM overall but it did have precipitation almost into the area by 18Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'm skeptical about this wave, the Nam has a coastal signature which explains why there could be more precip and cold air at first. I'm still thinking about an inch before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 One thing I've noticed is with each run of the NAM the heavier front end dump is making it further north. Im still skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The 00Z RGEM goes very 2/6/10 on us basically had the precip up to Sandy Hook by 18Z but then does not really get it in here til 21-22Z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The 00Z RGEM goes very 2/6/10 on us basically had the precip up to Sandy Hook by 18Z but then does not really get it in here til 21-22Z or so. 00Z GFS is also struggling to get the precip to the NYC area for a period before the 850mb temps rise to above 0 degrees tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GFS is still south but compared to its 12Z run is significantly more north with precip from 18-00Z over NJ....I don't forsee any changes to my forecast other than maybe moving start time up to 21-22Z especially for JFK...NWS Upton currently has snow starting at 23Z at JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GFS is still south but compared to its 12Z run is significantly more north with precip from 18-00Z over NJ....I don't forsee any changes to my forecast other than maybe moving start time up to 21-22Z especially for JFK...NWS Upton currently has snow starting at 23Z at JFK What is your forecast. A slushy inch for the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 If the NAM is ever gona pick up WAA it mayb now. It could b the resolution of the GFS doesn't see it. If this the NAM is off here too , then I can't see a scenario where it could be used. Let's hope it's higher res is seeing something if not I will punt this model all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 What is your forecast. A slushy inch for the city? My answer to your post: a decent bet for car tops and grassy areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 What is your forecast. A slushy inch for the city? I'll be forecasting all night til 6am tonight but as of now I am probably going with roughly 21-22Z start time changing over to rain by 06Z....I've been going coating-2 inches in the city area the last 2 days and don't plan on changing that...I like the RGEM/hi Res NAM for start times, NAM may be too early and GFS I think is just way to off base still on not seeing the WAA precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 00Z RGEM Total Snow Total Sleet Total Freezing Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'm thinking up to an inch for the city and coastal areas and places up to I-287. 1-3" northwest of that, plus several hours of freezing rain/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I guess Mt. Holly not buying any of this. Point & click says .1" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.