UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Lets take it into the NW forum please. I'd rather agree to disagree... Annual snowfall isn't really something I feel the need to continue to debate... I'll say I was wrong to end the conversation and get back to tomorrow's wave lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Anyway anyone have any thoughts on what the 12z GGEM showed as far as some significant icing north and west of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 12 Z ECM Data Hr 36 540 line central PA west to east and light precipitation over the region Hr 42 540 line Northern PA with Light QPF over the region . SE PA thicknesses 546-552Hr 48 540 line Central NY .. Thicknesses elsewhere 540 + to 558 SE PA and SNJ . Light QPF across east central PA and NE PA and NW NJ . Moderate over SE PA and heavy south of the PA border and SNJ..HR 54 Light QPF over East Central PA light to moderate over SE PA . 540 Line in NNE thicknesses elsewhere 546-558Surface Temps Hr 36 20s to mid 30s (Mid 30s LI) Hr 42 20s inland Mid 30s LI and lower 40s right along the immediate jersey coastHr 48 Mid 30s NW burbs of PHL low 30s east central PA ..Upper 20s NE PA /NW NJ ..40s East Central Jersey South and LIHr 54 Everyone is above freezing ...In summary a very light QPF event is being shown on the ECM. Not nearly as robust as the GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 12 Z ECM Data Hr 36 540 line central PA west to east and light precipitation over the region Hr 42 540 line Northern PA with Light QPF over the region . SE PA thicknesses 546-552 Hr 48 540 line Central NY .. Thicknesses elsewhere 540 + to 558 SE PA and SNJ . Light QPF across east central PA and NE PA and NW NJ . Moderate over SE PA and heavy south of the PA border and SNJ.. HR 54 Light QPF over East Central PA light to moderate over SE PA . 540 Line in NNE thicknesses elsewhere 546-558 Surface Temps Hr 36 20s to mid 30s (Mid 30s LI) Hr 42 20s inland Mid 30s LI and lower 40s right along the immediate jersey coast Hr 48 Mid 30s NW burbs of PHL low 30s east central PA ..Upper 20s NE PA /NW NJ ..40s East Central Jersey South and LI Hr 54 Everyone is above freezing ... In summary a very light QPF event is being shown on the ECM. Not nearly as robust as the GGEM... At 42 hours the 12z Euro , prints out .02 of liquid at 10 to 1 ratio on the New Jersey shore , 850`s are minus 1 and temps the surface is 35 degrees . It`s likely there will not be 2 inches of snow in Colts Neck as depicted , but at 42 hrs its not in low 40`s there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 At 42 hours the 12z Euro , prints out .02 of liquid at 10 to 1 ratio on the New Jersey shore , 850`s are minus 1 and temps the surface is 35 degrees . It`s likely there will not be 2 inches of snow in Colts Neck as depicted , but at 42 hrs its not in low 40`s there . Look closely along the immediate southern Jersey coast-low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 ecmwf_t2max_neng_8.png I see the 34 in CN so if brick is at 40 then we r both right. I dont like to use the Euro for surface. But if I take 34 then I have to believe that 40 Look closely along the immediate southern Jersey coast-low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I just don't see it.... Upton : WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE POLARVORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY...WHICH WILL ROTATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVESTHROUGH THE NORTHERN US. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE OF THESESHORTWAVES PHASING WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERNUS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THEREGION WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAYMORNING. BASED ON CLOSELY CLUSTERED CONSENSUS TRACK OF A DOUBLEBARRELED COASTAL LOW...A TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTEDALONG THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. ACROSS INTERIORAREAS...PARTICULARLY NW ZONES...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET AREPOSSIBLE WITH EVEN A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH A BITOF COLD AIR DAMMING. SREF PLUMES INDICATING A MEAN OF 3 TO 4INCHES ACROSS FAR NW ZONES...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS FORCITY COAST...WHICH MAY BE A GOOD BLEND BETWEEN COLDER ECMWF ANDWARMER GFS. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A WINTRY MORNING COMMUTE FORINTERIOR AREAS...WHILE AT THE CITY/COAST ROADS SHOULD MAINLY BEWET WITH RAIN AND RISING TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Upton is out to lunch this is a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I wouldn't say a non event... For the coast I agree but north and west may be dealing with some light snow to some pretty icy conditions till a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is a colder system aloft and at the surface than yesterday The development of WAA sometimes beat the models timing by a few hours and if the BL is ok u can see an inch or 2 it's plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is a colder system aloft and at the surface than yesterday The development of WAA sometimes beat the models timing by a few hours and if the BL is ok u can see an inch or 2 it's plausible Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I just don't see it.... Upton : WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY...WHICH WILL ROTATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN US. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES PHASING WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BASED ON CLOSELY CLUSTERED CONSENSUS TRACK OF A DOUBLE BARRELED COASTAL LOW...A TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...PARTICULARLY NW ZONES...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH A BIT OF COLD AIR DAMMING. SREF PLUMES INDICATING A MEAN OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS FAR NW ZONES...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS FOR CITY COAST...WHICH MAY BE A GOOD BLEND BETWEEN COLDER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A WINTRY MORNING COMMUTE FOR INTERIOR AREAS...WHILE AT THE CITY/COAST ROADS SHOULD MAINLY BE WET WITH RAIN AND RISING TEMPS. that's basically this morning's discussion-I bet the 4pm update has much much less esp from NYC N and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 that's basically this morning's discussion-I bet the 4pm update has much much less esp from NYC N and E Are you referring to Sunday night into Mondays wave?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is a colder system aloft and at the surface than yesterday The development of WAA sometimes beat the models timing by a few hours and if the BL is ok u can see an inch or 2 it's plausible This is going to be a major nowcasting event, the HRRR has been on a roll lately and it will be extremely useful late tonight. I'm going with a coating-2 inches at the coast in all my forecasts emphasizing the coating is more likely but that a significantly earlier start time is possible than the near 00Z start time I'm going with. I still am very nervous about this having serious bust potential from CNJ northward if the models are not seeing the WAA induce the precip....if the HRRR is agreeing with most of the global guidance later tonight I'll start feeling a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is going to be a major nowcasting event, the HRRR has been on a roll lately and it will be extremely useful late tonight. I'm going with a coating-2 inches at the coast in all my forecasts emphasizing the coating is more likely but that a significantly earlier start time is possible than the near 00Z start time I'm going with. I still am very nervous about this having serious bust potential from CNJ northward if the models are not seeing the WAA induce the precip....if the HRRR is agreeing with most of the global guidance later tonight I'll start feeling a bit better. NWS has updated my forcast for all rain not even a slight mix or starting as snow.. What are they looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Excuse me I mean TWC has me forcasted for all rain... This is NWS hazardous outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 326 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 CTZ005>008-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-082300- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM- ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 326 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE WILL ACCUMULATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN LATE MONDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SNOW AND ICE REPORTS. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 18z Nam at 33 hours. Nice Cad on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 FYI NAM through 54 hours looks like its going to go way wide right with the 2nd wave but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 FYI NAM through 54 hours looks like its going to go way wide right with the 2nd wave but we'll see 2nd wave or 3rd wave?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 FYI NAM through 54 hours looks like its going to go way wide right with the 2nd wave but we'll see Scrapper on this run. More east than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Scrapper on this run. More east than the 12z run. ? 18Z NAM shows 0.5" + of precip for NYC this run. I'm not referring to p-type at all but it's more than a scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 ? 18Z NAM shows 0.5" + of precip for NYC this run. I'm not referring to p-type at all but it's more than a scraper I think they may be referring to the 3rd wave Monday and Tuesday not the second wave Sunday and Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 FYI NAM through 54 hours looks like its going to go way wide right with the 2nd wave but we'll see Global ensemble gives us a light snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think they may be referring to the 3rd wave Monday and Tuesday not the second wave Sunday and Monday That's a good way to cause confusion considering the title of the thread, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 That's a good way to cause confusion considering the title of the thread, lol I'm only assuming that's what they meant cause this second wave looks like a light snow event N+W of city with some icing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Still not sure why NWS and TWC are so opposed on the forcast for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Still not sure why NWS and TWC are so opposed on the forcast for my area You might want to go then with the Weather Underground's "Best Forecast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Still not sure why NWS and TWC are so opposed on the forcast for my area it could possibly have to do with the fact the weather channel sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 You might want to go then with the Weather Underground's "Best Forecast" Their forecast is almost identical to NWS... I'll go with a general 1-3"(fingers crossed)... I really can't stand TWC anymore. it's all political forecasting and non sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 it could possibly have to do with the fact the weather channel sucks. Lol agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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