SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Once again the NAM is gonna play with peoples emotions... lol @ hr 84 I don't totally buy it because the upper level setup is very sketchy but the GFS ensemble support as well as the NAM being that far west at the very least means there may be something along I95 and south and east...the NOGAPS was actually less suppressed than the GEM and Euro at 00Z with it as well...the everchanging nature of Sunday's storm is likely impacting the outcome of this potential event and the fact the Sunday storm continues to become more overrunning induced vs. primary/secondary low induced as it once it appeared it would be is probably allowing this threat for Tuesday/Wednesday to become a possibility...sometimes losing out on one storm can help with the next. Tonight's system was not modeled well either as precip mostly shut off 4-5 hours before nearly all guidance other than the HRRR suggested, all these systems riding the heels of the other are likely mucking things up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Do you think the OKX and BOX forecast area could be under winter storm watches / warnings for Tuesday into Wednesday ?? I think we have a 20-25 percent chance at 5-7 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts for a good portion of the I-95 corridor on Tuesday. I am also wondering if the 12/16 ? event is becoming more of a Miller B Snowstorm with coastal areas getting a potential 9-12 inch snowfall. I am liking the trends on the GFS and EURO. I think we are loosing the 12/8-9 event for potentially 2 moderate/moderately strong winter events to inland areas, and likely to the coast. Slight chance of something big and plowable soon. I think after 12/16 we get into a more 35-45 degree high pattern, and risk a cutter. Wonder if we get an epic and historical Jan/Feb period.... Questions to be answered much later. Any insights would be appreciated. Back to the 12/8-9 event. For NYC and LI, think 1-2 hours of light snow/sleet, going to rain quickly with early temps of 32-34 around 8 PM rising slowly and steadily to 44-45 by 7 AM Monday morning. Should stay around 40-45 all day on Monday. My guess on NYC highs for next 5 Days 12/7 41 F 12/8 36 F 12/9 46 F 12/10 33 F 12/11 27 F Likely stays below freezing until next Weekend or the Monday following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think this second wave has a real chance at being a surprises for areas n+w of NYC... Although overrunning rains/ ice may keep final accumulation to a minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Do you think the OKX and BOX forecast area could be under winter storm watches / warnings for Tuesday into Wednesday ?? I think we have a 20-25 percent chance at 5-7 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts for a good portion of the I-95 corridor on Tuesday. I am also wondering if the 12/16 ? event is becoming more of a Miller B Snowstorm with coastal areas getting a potential 9-12 inch snowfall. I am liking the trends on the GFS and EURO. I think we are loosing the 12/8-9 event for potentially 2 moderate/moderately strong winter events to inland areas, and likely to the coast. Slight chance of something big and plowable soon. I think after 12/16 we get into a more 35-45 degree high pattern, and risk a cutter. Wonder if we get an epic and historical Jan/Feb period.... Questions to be answered much later. Any insights would be appreciated. Back to the 12/8-9 event. For NYC and LI, think 1-2 hours of light snow/sleet, going to rain quickly with early temps of 32-34 around 8 PM rising slowly and steadily to 44-45 by 7 AM Monday morning. Should stay around 40-45 all day on Monday. My guess on NYC highs for next 5 Days 12/7 41 F 12/8 36 F 12/9 46 F 12/10 33 F 12/11 27 F Likely stays below freezing until next Weekend or the Monday following. the 6Z GFS OP is a miss south and east - don't know what the ensembles show at 6Z yet . I think the models and us will have a better idea tomorrow night after this second wave is over us about what will happen with the 3rd wave Tuesday. Another interesting development on the GFS the last couple of runs is next weekends storm - that could be the one that has some potential to be significant at least especially if the indicies cooperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 From the looks of it the latest NAM does not look so good for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 From the looks of it the latest NAM does not look so good for the city The 12Z NAM is showing the 3rd wave making it here on Tuesday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013120712/namconus_reflectivity_us_24.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Any other models showing that Tuesday wave?? Sent from my HTC ONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The 12Z NAM is showing the 3rd wave making it here on Tuesday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013120712/namconus_reflectivity_us_24.png According to the NAM that wave looks to be most robust bringing accum snow all the way to the coast. Wave 2 only looks good NW with lit accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 We could squeeze out an inch from this, and we are likely to at least see snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think this second wave has a real chance at being a surprises for areas n+w of NYC... Although overrunning rains/ ice may keep final accumulation to a minimum 1-3" I would say right now.. EDIT: Had to edit my last post. Didn't realize this was for tomorrow & not the possible 3rd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I will believe it when I see it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I will believe it when I see it.. I would take an inch at this point... However I think we've gotten spoiled the last 2 years with early season snowstorms and decent follow up winters...on average it's usually rare to see even a few inches as early as December IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 12z GGEM doesn't look good for areas north and west of the city and southward... Very light snow event quickly changing to some heavy freezing precip, (sleet/frz rn) followed with rain...Capitol area seems the only place with decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I would take an inch at this point... However I think we've gotten spoiled the last 2 years with early season snowstorms and decent follow up winters...on average it's usually rare to see even a few inches as early as December IMO I average over 50" a yr on this side of the county.. Not sure how its rare to even see a few inches in December. This isn't the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 My average according to NWS is 36.9 here in Orange County so ur lucky...and I can probably count on 1 hand the number of significant December snowstorms my area has gotten with the exception of the past few years early season storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 12 RGEM Snow Sleet Freezing Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 My average according to NWS is 36.9 here in Orange County so ur lucky...and I can probably count on 1 hand the number of significant December snowstorms my area has gotten with the exception of the past few years early season storms New Windsor is a snow hole for the county. Very little elevation but regardless 36.9" seems a bit low though. I would say you are in the 40-43" range Out of curiosity how old are you? I remember 10 or so yrs ago where we went on a 3-4 yr streak of early Dec snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Their numbers are wrong...most of Orange County averages a minimum of 45" of snow per average year and the bulk of the area is over 50". I'm sorry but I've lived in orange my whole life and that's incorrect... If I have any data to back that up i would like to see it cause everything I've ever saw/ read has most of Orange County my in the general 30-40 with the exception of far northeast orange at right around 50 I'll references NOAAS annual snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Annual snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 New Windsor is a snow hole for the county. Very little elevation but regardless 36.9" seems a bit low though. I would say you are in the 40-43" range Out of curiosity how old are you? I remember 10 or so yrs ago where we went on a 3-4 yr streak of early Dec snows. I'm 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm sorry but I've lived in orange my whole life and that's incorrect... If I have any data to back that up i would like to see it cause everything I've ever saw/ read has most of Orange County my in the general 30-40 with the exception of far northeast orange at right around 50 I'll references NOAAS annual snowfall map What? lol.. far northeast corner? What? smh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I meant north west section of orange.. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm 25 95% of Orange county averages 43-45" of snow. Most of the county sits at 400-500' elevation which is higher than most of New Windsor. Areas like Monroe/Highland Mills/Harriman average over 50", Areas out here on the west side of the county near the Shawangunk Ridge average over 50". New Windsor & Newburgh probably averaged the least in the county and thats the northeast corner you speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I meant north west section of orange.. Sorry That map is extremely inaccurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 That map is extremely inaccurate Would u mind posting an accurate map that you seem to be getting your references from or the site your getting your info off of please...cause I've only lived in new windsor 1 year.. I also lived in Middletown, and highland falls and rarely saw 50" inches of snow at an annual average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I will believe it when I see it.. I really dont see how upton can forecast 1-2 with the little QPF shown before 850s go above zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is USA.com which sites average heating. Cooling, electric, gas, precip, snowfall, and temps per county... It sites orange count at 39.8 inches annually. http://www.usa.com/orange-county-ny-weather.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Would u mind posting an accurate map that you seem to be getting your references from or the site your getting your info off of please...cause I've only lived in new windsor 1 year.. I also lived in Middletown, and highland falls and rarely saw 50" inches of snow at an annual average Lets take it into the NW forum please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41078-fall-2013-banter-thread/page-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Plenty of people have lived in places their whole lives and don't know their town's average annual snowfall...[/quote It's a county not a town and I've sited several references.. U haven't sited any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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