Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Nam gives us an inch or so by Sunday evening with temps still below freezing so probably more to fall after that before temps warm up and we change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Nam is coming in colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Close to 0.4" falls as frozen before the changeover around midnight and that's for EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Nam looks good for an area wide 2-4" solid area of overrunning snows....we shall see...most robust run to this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM is quicker and wetter this needs to be watch. I will wait to the 12Z runs tomorrow before I decide is this is the right model. Not so simple forward any more I was convince the NAM would run drier this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Nam looks good for an area wide 2-4" solid area of overrunning snows....we shall see...most robust run to this point... Depends how quickly the 850s warm. We could go over to sleet/freezing rain fairly quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM is quicker and wetter this needs to be watch. I will wait to the 12Z runs tomorrow before I decide is this is the right model. Not so simple forward any more I was convince the NAM would run drier this run. I think the higher RES models may start giving us some help, the SPC WRF has not had its best year to date so far but I'm intrigued to see its 36 hour panel on tonight's 00Z run and its 24-36 hour forecast on tomorrow's 12Z run, if it looks more NAM like assuming the Euro/GFS don't start generating more precip by then I'll be increasingly convinced. Also will have the RGEM out to 48 hours tonight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 RGEM had nailed this first wave this far... Very curious to see its 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 RGEM had nailed this first wave this far... Very curious to see its 0z run Its not as optimistic as the NAM from 42-48 hours but its also markedly more optimistic than the 12Z GFS was showing snow just south of NYC at 00Z, you could argue it does show snow over us but I think thats just a leading edge of probably virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The 00z GFS is colder, gets snow in by 00z Monday, but it's weak and unorganized. It does have 2-4" from Rockland County south for Tuesday night though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 GFS crackling dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The GFS likes wave 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The GFS likes wave 3 Looks too warm on the surface though for the immediate NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Looks too warm on the surface though for the immediate NYC area Ya below 32 is too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Looks too warm on the surface though for the immediate NYC area That would be incorrect, it's below freezing at levels even for ACY and JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Only reason at all that the secondary system may have some merit is that the 00Z NAM was notably far west with it too at 84 hours, west of even the GFS position, its entirely possible that because this Sunday system may ultimately end up with way less a surface reflection than pegged 2-3 days back the next wave will have a chance at impacting us, but I'll wait on the Euro or the ensembles first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 At least the third wave would have some mid-level support with it. The 500mb vorticy maps have nothing at all for Monday's event, but are more promising for the potential third wave. 00z GFS has 4-6" for Philly and surrounding area. 2-4" for just about everyone else outside of the extreme northern folks like northern Rockland north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Only reason at all that the secondary system may have some merit is that the 00Z NAM was notably far west with it too at 84 hours, west of even the GFS position, its entirely possible that because this Sunday system may ultimately end up with way less a surface reflection than pegged 2-3 days back the next wave will have a chance at impacting us, but I'll wait on the Euro or the ensembles first. The 12z Euro ensembles were all way south and east with the mean showing very little precip, and only for the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The 4k NAM weenie maps showing low end warning criteria west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The 00Z GGEM is also seeing the 2nd wave now, its nowhere near the GFS or NAM but its way more NW with minor snow/rain near the coast than it was at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 A little more north with the precip on the Euro and our area would see accumulating snow. It is certainly cold enough at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro looks not too bad. Generally 1 - 3" City and N Jersey. 2 - 4" C and S Jersey and SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro looks not too bad. Generally 1 - 3" City and N Jersey. 2 - 4" C and S Jersey and SE PA. Does it have the 2nd wave the GFS picked up tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It's still south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Does it have the 2nd wave the GFS picked up tonight? South and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Its time to let go I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Its time to let go I guessThink the waves are being confused ,As per Euro Wave 1 which just happened ... Enough said Wave 2 Sunday nite Monday NYC the Euro prints out 2 inches of snow Wave 3 Tues is South and East Finally Day 9 -10 ahhhh. I will leave that one for now....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 GFS ensemble support for the event at 90-96 hours was very good on the 00Z, 9 of 12 members near or even further NW with the precip shield, only 3 members more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Its time to let go I guess There are certain patterns where you have hope for a good outcome for much of our region. This pattern isn't one of them. Hopefully we can get a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Once again the NAM is gonna play with peoples emotions... lol @ hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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