Dec 8th - 9th (2nd wave/winter storm discussion)

[NorthShoreWx]

I'm not an idiot. I'm looking at this pattern in a skeptical fashion as well. When things set up as progged for the next 10 days, it's hard to suggest it won't be both cold, and also have several chances at snow/ice. I'm not suggesting a big storm threat or anything of the sort. In fact several days ago I commented on the gradient pattern and posited that depending on where it sets up, things could end up at least ok for us with some cold and snow and ice threats. This looks like what were dealing with for day 6-7+

 

No one said you were an idiot; the non-wx discussion over the past few posts has been about etiquette, not intelligence. 

 

Someone implied he doesn't like our chances this go-round and in very few words he stated his main reason why.  It wasn't necessary to attack him.

[Snow_Miser]

Saying not impressed. SE ridge...is constructive? How many times have we had 3+ in and a "SE ridge" in place??? Umm probably everything SWFE we've ever had? You appear to add nothing constructive to the conversation either pazzo

 

We can get moderate snow events when there is a SE Ridge in place if the gradient is south, like it was with December 19, 2008.

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

12z CMC total snow with this system.

 

 

3.9 - 5" of snow from SW CT through PHL. 

[Guest Pamela]

3.9 - 5" of snow from SW CT through PHL. 

 

The first green is 3 to 4 inches...the second green is 4 to 6 inches...just divide everything by 2.5 to get inches. 

 

BTW, I'm very fond of those maps on the Canadian website. 

[Sundog]

The first green is 3 to 4 inches...the second green is 4 to 6 inches...just divide everything by 2.5 to get inches.

BTW, I'm very fond of those maps on the Canadian website.

I love those maps too. Very easy to read and nice looking graphics.

[WeatherFox]

We can get moderate snow events when there is a SE Ridge in place if the gradient is south, like it was with December 19, 2008.

 

dec 19 2008 pattern.gif

Looks like an overrunning snow event with the initial snowfall mixing with and changing to rain at the end.

Too much rain and milder temps spoils the event in my opinion.

[Santa Claus]

I don't remember the last time forky actually introduced anything constructive to the conversation.

 

There's a lot of model-hugging that goes on here whenever they print out something mildly interesting, which isn't constructive, either.  Granted sometimes they pull off something amazing (Sandy, the snowstorm afterwards) but I think forky is good at analyzing through his experience/education and putting model results in their proper context, as a tool and not something to be taken too seriously without further analysis.

[NYCSuburbs]

If you are looking for above average snow this winter, then you need above average snow in December. Courtesy of NYCSuburbs...winters with below average snow in December.

Year ---- Total winter snowfall1877 ---- 8.1"1882 ---- 44.0"1885 ---- 20.8"1888 ---- 16.5"1891 ---- 25.4"1936 ---- 15.6"1943 ---- 23.8"1953 ---- 15.8"1965 ---- 21.4"1971 ---- 22.9"1972 ---- 2.8"1994 ---- 11.8"1996 ---- 10.0"1997 ---- 5.5"1999 ---- 16.3"2001 ---- 3.5"2006 ---- 12.4"

I haven't posted here in a very long time (and under different circumstances at that time, been browsing the forum once in a while since then), but I wanted to point out that list is for winters with a trace or no measurable snow in December - the only one there that had above average snow was 1882-83 and that was influenced by significant November snowfall. This year I have a hard time believing the NYC area ends up with that little snowfall, and looking at Decembers with below average snow in general has some differences; if you go by the 1981-2010 averages (4.8"), then according to Upton's snow data, 81/144 Decembers recorded less than 4.8", and the average snowfall for those winters was 21.8". Since 1981, however, 21 Decembers had below average snowfall, and the average winter snowfall for these years was 16.6". Only 4 of these winters had above 25", last year included, with the highest seasonal total coming from 2004-05 (3.0" Dec) with 41.0", followed by 1982-83 (3.0" Dec) with 27.2".

 

Plotting all Decembers with less than 4.8" vs. total winter snowfall shows a large number of Decembers with snow between 0.5" and 4.8" had total winter snowfall between 10" and 30".

 

 

I'm not sure if this type of post belongs in this thread, I can move it if needed.

[alwaysready126]

Thanks for the clarification. You always have great information. I'm sure no one would be opposed to your post.

[alwaysready126]

I haven't posted here in a very long time (and under different circumstances at that time, been browsing the forum once in a while since then), but I wanted to point out that list is for winters with a trace or no measurable snow in December - the only one there that had above average snow was 1882-83 and that was influenced by significant November snowfall. This year I have a hard time believing the NYC area ends up with that little snowfall, and looking at Decembers with below average snow in general has some differences; if you go by the 1981-2010 averages (4.8"), then according to Upton's snow data, 81/144 Decembers recorded less than 4.8", and the average snowfall for those winters was 21.8". Since 1981, however, 21 Decembers had below average snowfall, and the average winter snowfall for these years was 16.6". Only 4 of these winters had above 25", last year included, with the highest seasonal total coming from 2004-05 (3.0" Dec) with 41.0", followed by 1982-83 (3.0" Dec) with 27.2".

Plotting all Decembers with less than 4.8" vs. total winter snowfall shows a large number of Decembers with snow between 0.5" and 4.8" had total winter snowfall between 10" and 30".

decsnow_vs_wintersnow.gif

I

I'm not sure if this type of post belongs in this thread, I can move it if needed.

Would you happen to have the statistics for winters after Decembers with above average snowfall?

[Guest Pamela]

I haven't posted here in a very long time (and under different circumstances at that time, been browsing the forum once in a while since then), but I wanted to point out that list is for winters with a trace or no measurable snow in December - the only one there that had above average snow was 1882-83 and that was influenced by significant November snowfall. This year I have a hard time believing the NYC area ends up with that little snowfall, and looking at Decembers with below average snow in general has some differences; if you go by the 1981-2010 averages (4.8"), then according to Upton's snow data, 81/144 Decembers recorded less than 4.8", and the average snowfall for those winters was 21.8". Since 1981, however, 21 Decembers had below average snowfall, and the average winter snowfall for these years was 16.6". Only 4 of these winters had above 25", last year included, with the highest seasonal total coming from 2004-05 (3.0" Dec) with 41.0", followed by 1982-83 (3.0" Dec) with 27.2".

 

Plotting all Decembers with less than 4.8" vs. total winter snowfall shows a large number of Decembers with snow between 0.5" and 4.8" had total winter snowfall between 10" and 30".

 

decsnow_vs_wintersnow.gif

 

I'm not sure if this type of post belongs in this thread, I can move it if needed.

 

I went to your website and went through the archives just by chance...I read your analysis (before, during and after the Feb 2013 blizzard) and must say that both the writing you did + the graphics you provided were pretty much the best I've seen related to that storm...

[uncle W]

Big snows in December usually mean more big snows after...
year......8"+ snowfall...season snowfall/after December...later heavy snowfalls...
1872........18.0".....................60.3"................39.8"......................6.0"
1886..........8.1".....................32.9"................22.6"......................none 6" or more
1909..........8.0".....................27.2"................17.4"......................10.0"
1912........11.4".....................15.3"..................3.9"......................none
1916........12.7".....................50.7"................36.2"......................6.7" 6.5"
1917..........9.1".....................34.5"................20.1"......................5.9"
1933........11.2".....................52.0"................36.6"......................9.8" 9.3" 7.6"
1945..........8.3".....................31.4"................12.1"......................7.5"
1947........26.4".....................63.2"................33.6"......................5.7"
1948........16.0".....................46.6"................21.3"......................9.4"
1957..........8.0".....................44.7"................36.0"......................7.9" 11.8"
1959........13.7".....................39.2"................22.9"......................14.7"
1960........15.2".....................54.7"................36.1"......................9.9" 17.4"
2000........12.0".....................35.0"................21.6"......................6.0"
2003........14.0".....................42.0"................22.2"......................10.3"
2009........10.9".....................51.4"................39.0"......................10.0" 20.9"
2010........20.0".....................61.9"................41.8"......................19.0" 9.1"

14 of 16 were above seasonal average...1909-10 was almost at the long term average but had a 10" storm in January...1912-13 was the only year that was benign after December...
12 of 16 years had a 6" storm after December...
8 of 16 years had a storm 9" or more after December...
13 of 16 years had 20 or more inches of snow after December...
6 of 16 years had over 50" of seasonal snowfall...
9 of 16 years had over 40"..."
1926 had a 7.9" storm and that year ended up with 22.3"...
1995 had a 7.7" storm and that year ended up with 75.6"...

 

[MJO812]

First wave is rain for the coast. Second wave is a little colder but it's also rain for the coast but the freezing line is close by.

[Storm At Sea]

I'm thinking there's a decent chance of a snow event sometime between Dec. 7 and December 14.

 

Edit: May I add that the NAO forecast would be consistent with this as it drops off around Dec. 10, only to rebound around Dec. 15.

[MJO812]

I'm thinking there's a decent chance of a snow event sometime between Dec. 7 and December 14.

The GFS is showing this right now. The third wave that forms looks good at 168 hours for the area. Decent CAD signature.

[MJO812]

Nice snow event for the area next weekend on the GFS

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I think the northeast has to hit something next week, or we may be in trouble for 2 or 3 weeks

[Hailstorm]

I think the northeast has to hit something next week, or we may be in trouble for 2 or 3 weeks

Why do you say that? Does the GFS show the -EPO breaking down already?

 

I at least hope Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is spared of the impending blowtorch after the last 2 warm Decembers.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Why do you say that? Does the GFS show the -EPO breaking down already?

I at least hope Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is spared of the impending blowtorch after the last 2 warm Decembers.

Not sure if it's a blowtorch, but the epo is probably going to break down some. Whether it is transient or has staying power is really the million dollar question. Unless there is some improvement with the Atlantic, the minute we lose the epo it's pretty much game over for the time being.

One can only hope it's temporary

[Storm At Sea]

Most models are too quick to break down significant patterns...IE: it's going to take time to really break down this -EPO. In fact, most forecasts that I have seen have the -EPO strengthening.

 

Edit: My major concern is the strong indications that the PNA is going to be going - and strongly so in the near future.

 

Not sure if it's a blowtorch, but the epo is probably going to break down some. Whether it is transient or has staying power is really the million dollar question. Unless there is some improvement with the Atlantic, the minute we lose the epo it's pretty much game over for the time being.

One can only hope it's temporary

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Most models are too quick to break down significant patterns...IE: it's going to take time to really break down this -EPO. In fact, most forecasts that I have seen have the -EPO strengthening.

I have also heard rumblings that the Atlantic may be improving ever so slightly. Any thoughts?

[tmagan]

I think the northeast has to hit something next week, or we may be in trouble for 2 or 3 weeks

This is something I mention every winter so I'll do it now:

 

Even in our snowiest, coldest winters, the majority of winter storms in NYC and immediate environs are rain storms.

[Storm At Sea]

Not really true especially for months of Jan and Feb.

[Guest Pamela]

Not really true especially for months of Jan and Feb.

 

Actually it is true...even in February...the snowiest and shortest month...rain prevails over snow about 2 out of every 3 times on average in the NYC area.

 

In January it is closer to 3 out of 4 times (rain prevailing over snow).

[Guest Pamela]

Actually it is true...even in February...the snowiest and shortest month...rain prevails over snow about 2 out of every 3 times on average in the NYC area.

 

In January it is closer to 3 out of 4 times (rain prevailing over snow).

 

 

There are, of course exceptions...2004-05 out at Upton saw 78" of snow out of I think  9.85" total melted liquid (December 2004- March 2005)...meaning snow was 79% of the precip those 4 months presupposing a 10:1 ratio throughout the timespan.  Such a situation is very rare. 

[Storm At Sea]

Yes, on average...however, read what tmagan wrote..."even in our snowiest, coldest winters"...

 

I suspect that in our "snowiest, coldest" winters that rain prevailing over snow was not as common as some think (ie: probably closer to 50:50 ratio during snowiest winters and 60:40 (snow to rain) during the coldest winters.

 

There are, of course exceptions...2004-05 out at Upton saw 78" of snow out of I think  9.85" total melted liquid (December 2004- March 2005)...meaning snow was 79% of the precip those 4 months presupposing a 10:1 ratio throughout the timespan.  Such a situation is very rare. 

[MJO812]

6z GFS is way different than the Euro with this weekend's storm. The Euro has it cutting through the lakes while the GFS has it off the coast.

[Weathergun]

6z GFS is way different than the Euro with this weekend's storm. The Euro has it cutting through the lakes while the GFS has it off the coast.

850mb and 925mb lows are going to our west on the GFS. A sign this could trend warmer/north. Still 6 days out.

[bluewave]

I am thinking that the wave will start out as snow or a mix for the area. But the strength of the 

low will determine how quick we warm up and turn to rain. The euro ensemble mean

looks colder and flatter with the wave than the OP. The SE ridge in that position means 

that more amplification will mean a warm up. We would like this to stay on the weak side

to see more frozen potential.

 

[SnoSki14]

So I'm guessing we could forget about frozen precipitation? It really sucks we have such a bad Atlantic as even a little blocking could have been huge for us.