UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The GGEM, which I like in this 24-48 hr time frame.. Has my area getting a solid dumping of snow, with the mix line around Rockland... I think the NWS is downplaying the event IMO for the lower/mid hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The GGEM, which I like in this 24-48 hr time frame.. Has my area getting a solid dumping of snow, with the mix line around Rockland... I think the NWS is downplaying the event IMO for the lower/mid hudson valley agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The GEM And NAM Both indicate precipitation reaching roughly the NYC or I 78 corridor by 00-02Z Sunday evening...the GFS continues to say it won't happen til 08z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The GEM And NAM Both indicate precipitation reaching roughly the NYC or I 78 corridor by 00-02Z Sunday evening...the GFS continues to say it won't happen til 08z. If the GFS is correct then we won't even see much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The GEM And NAM Both indicate precipitation reaching roughly the NYC or I 78 corridor by 00-02Z Sunday evening...the GFS continues to say it won't happen til 08z. Do you think the precip is going to come in earlier than modeled? If that happens, there will be more wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Do you think the precip is going to come in earlier than modeled? If that happens, there will be more wintry weather. I would take the gfs with a grain of salt... It hasn't done well with multiple waves in close time proximity...I think the precip will start between 00-03 Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 You will get ur answer with the Euro. You shouldn't dismiss models that don't agree with what you want and if ur pinning ur hopes one the NAM that is always too wet just be cautious and go with a Euro GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 12z GGEM is like a compromise between the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The NAM doesn't have the first wave getting eaten alive. The 4k radar shows snow all the way to the coast by 00z Sunday night. Long Island is too warm though. It would have you believe that the subsidence sets up near KSWF. 12Z Nam has no accumulation for NYC http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Forecast high for the KSWF area is 49. Current temp is 41.7. Upton's AFD mentions temps will hold steady and fall off later this afternoon. Temps. might bust on the low side today. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY1200 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTHOVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. LOWPRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS THE NORTHEASTTHROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INFOR THE SECOND HALF.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...THE GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE PICTURE WITH A RIVER OFMOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO NEWFOUNDLAND.SFC COLD FRONT SEEN ON RADAR AND IN THE OBS APPROACHING OCEAN CITYAS OF 1630Z. LATEST HRRR AND RADAR CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS LIGHT RAENDING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EASTTHEN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURERIDE ALONG THE FRONT.TEMPS STEADY UNTIL 3-4 PM...THEN START A SLOW FALL IN THE COLDADVECTION.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 My current temp according to NWS is 43... According to my own weather station at my house it's 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 12Z Nam has no accumulation for NYC http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt It may not accumulate but the 4k has snow for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Forecast high for the KSWF area is 49. Current temp is 41.7. Upton's AFD mentions temps will hold steady and fall off later this afternoon. Temps. might bust on the low side today. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1200 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE SECOND HALF. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE PICTURE WITH A RIVER OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO NEWFOUNDLAND. SFC COLD FRONT SEEN ON RADAR AND IN THE OBS APPROACHING OCEAN CITY AS OF 1630Z. LATEST HRRR AND RADAR CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS LIGHT RA ENDING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST THEN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS STEADY UNTIL 3-4 PM...THEN START A SLOW FALL IN THE COLD ADVECTION. && highs occured in the early monrning hours everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Its looking more and more like the bigger winter weather event will be tonight instead of Sunday/Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Its looking more and more like the bigger winter weather event will be tonight instead of Sunday/Monday.. Agreed... Latest GGEM shows a light snow event followed by quick overrunning rain...unless ur far north or west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Agreed... Latest GGEM shows a light snow event followed by quick overrunning rain...unless ur far north or west The GGEM had some winter precip but it was more in the form of ip/zr for our region... Both 12z GFS & NAM show a healthy amount of snow for our region tonight.. Would not be surprised to see some 6" amounts pop up in the county.. Starting to look like the GFS had the right idea all along for the 2nd wave.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The GGEM had some winter precip but it was more in the form of ip/zr for our region... Both 12z GFS & NAM show a healthy amount of snow for our region tonight.. Would not be surprised to see some 6" amounts pop up in the county.. Starting to look like the GFS had the right idea all along for the 2nd wave.. Yea I had been saying I think tonight's event was being downplayed for Orange County and areas north and west.. However It seems like Sundays wave will be a messy light mix.. Quick moving too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 highs occured in the early monrning hours everywhere Yeah, the high KWSF was 54 during the wee morning hours, temps been slowly dropping ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 These threads gotta get separated! Too confusing every other post is about a different wave Yea, AccuWeather Forums are much more organized. The moderators here should take some notes. Yes and no. They need to separate NE from Mid atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I started a discussions and obs thread for tonight's wave.. Feel free to move any discussion regarding tonight's event over there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yeah, the high KWSF was 54 during the wee morning hours, temps been slowly dropping ever since. Agree. The updated forecast was for the point and click and that was updated at 1:06 pm showing the high of 49.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sunday into Monday 12 Z ECM Data and Summary HR 60 Light precipitation across central and southern PA not yet in E C PA ..540 line goes thru central Pa in a west to east type fashionHr 66 Light QPF all of PA and NJ 540 line up in N PA 546 + thickness NW burbs of PHL Alright this run is once again coming in wetter indicating that last night was a hiccup run Hr 72 540 line in SC NY Thicknesses elsewhere are 546-552 .. Heavy QPF is South central PA into southeast PA into Central NJ and south . light to moderate in East Central PA and light in NE PA Hr 78 L Pressure tucked S of LI and light QPF across the area . Thicknesses same as priorHeavy QPF never gets into NY state or NE PA it is all verbatim light QPF Temperatures Hr 60 twenties everywhere except along the coast in Jersey low to mid 30sHr 66 20s everywhere but SE PA lower 30s and NJ is in the 30s to southern lower 40s Hr 72 20s in NE PA east central PA mid 30s ..SE Pa Mid 30s and in Jersey from about central south it is in the 40s Hr 78 Everyone is above freezing with mid 30s in NE PA East central and SE PA upper 30s to lower 40s ..LI and central NJ south in the 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Agree. The updated forecast was for the point and click and that was updated at 1:06 pm showing the high of 49.. That is odd then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 North and west people might want to keep an eye on the Upstate NY and PA thread tonight. The models have gotten colder with time on the wave tonight and if the snow really makes it down well into central PA, that's a very good sign for NW NJ/SE NY/Hudson Valley to have maybe some decent accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 North and west people might want to keep an eye on the Upstate NY and PA thread tonight. The models have gotten colder with time on the wave tonight and if the snow really makes it down well into central PA, that's a very good sign for NW NJ/SE NY/Hudson Valley to have maybe some decent accumulating snow. It has been colder than forecasted all day here in the great NW... Wish the flakes weren't overnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Down to 43 at the surface here. That's a little colder than was expected. Not sure if it will matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It has been colder than forecasted all day here in the great NW... Wish the flakes weren't overnight! That only means we must stay up for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That only means we must stay up for themI intend to try but I have a baby that hates sleep!40 and steady for a couple hours here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I intend to try but I have a baby that hates sleep! 40 and steady for a couple hours here... 40-41 here for a while as well, has not moved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I intend to try but I have a baby that hates sleep! 40 and steady for a couple hours here... I know the feeling... my 14 month old thinks its party time at 2am. 40.1F and steady here as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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