jm1220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 dry air winning again on the 00z gfs... Yup, going to be tough to precipitate much through that cold/dry air dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yup, going to be tough to precipitate much through that cold/dry air dome. Yep! bwi and dca get 4-6 on this run, they are in a perfect spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 gfs with light snow on tuesday with the follow up system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's odd to see the GFS so dry compared to the rest of the guidance. I've been worried about suppression from the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 My NAM snow maps show a coating for Long Island, 1-2" for the city and extreme eastern NJ, 2-4" for the Union, western Passaic, Bergan crowd and 3-5" NW of I-287 and north of I-80. Orange County is like 4-6". That's from Sunday into Monday only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's odd to see the GFS so dry compared to the rest of the guidance. I've been worried about suppression from the beginning. If you look at the 12Z GFS ensemble members out of the 12...10 had precip north of the Op run at 84 hours (00Z Sun Eve)....about 3-4 had it WAY north of the Op...the op run had the northern precip extent through 84 hours near ACY, there were some ensemble members up near POU/SWF with precip by 00Z....I'm leaning Euro/Canadian til I see them cave...its also a major red flag to see the always slow NAM have precip north of the GFS at 78-84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 There continues to be some hope on the CIPS analogs, as was discussed 12/28/90 still showing up, its not going to be that good because the wave is much stronger with more WAA...an interesting one showing now is 12/09/86...its actually a very good hit at 500mb, not so much at the surface, the high positioning was not as good as this event and we had more of a SE flow vs. this event where the flow may be more ENE...even in that event LGA had about a 3-4 hour period of snow to start...here is the link...as you can see very similar at 500mb, surface setup not quite as good as high was already more into its departing stage and more NW which enabled the SE flow. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1986/us1209.php 12/9/86 was in the coating to an inch range for just about everyone from LI to the Catskills. The uniformity of the snowfall is strange given that it was a change over situation. The highest snowfall totals I found in this region were on LI and at Slide Mountain, an odd pair to be sure (totals in the 1 - 2" range). NYC/NNJ/Westchester/Putnam <1" Rain amounts were relatively light too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 12/9/86 was in the coating to an inch range for just about everyone from LI to the Catskills. The uniformity of the snowfall is strange given that it was a change over situation. The highest snowfall totals I found in this region were on LI and at Slide Mountain, an odd pair to be sure (totals in the 1 - 2" range). NYC/NNJ/Westchester/Putnam <1" Rain amounts were relatively light too. 12/9/09 was a surprise over-performer around here and even in the NYC burbs in which the ML warming was overdone. Looking on NARR though it's pretty clear that set-up was much different with a strong primary went over Chicago and a secondary formed over eastern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 12/9/09 was a surprise over-performer around here and even in the NYC burbs in which the ML warming was overdone. Looking on NARR though it's pretty clear that set-up was much different with a strong primary went over Chicago and a secondary formed over eastern VA. Only 1.2" IMBY from that one, but it looks like it was much better to the north (contrast with 12/86). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro is very dry. Cold but dry. Euro is still popping 6" of snow for eastern pa tomorrow morning. I find it hard to believe. But the radar is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 0z Euro is really dry for Sunday-Monday event. Less than .25" total qpf for the northern surburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GGEM still shows a light snow event for tonight and a decent dump Sunday night/ Monday before a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 06z NAM had 3-6" from I-80 north for Monday. Lots of freezing rain for interior PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 00z GGEM looks like the GFS and the Euro regarding the early precip getting squashed before it reaches us. The next wave brings 1-3 hours of snow before a changeover to plain rain at the coast. Freezing rain takes over the interior and lasts 4-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Both 6z NAM & 6z GFS give the far interior more snow tonight into tomorrow than sunday/monday. Looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 12z NAM looks very nice for both systems....coldest run so far with the 1st wave, and another nice 2-4" type front end deal for the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 12z NAM looks very nice for both systems....coldest run so far with the 1st wave, and another nice 2-4" type front end deal for the 2nd. The NAM doesn't have the first wave getting eaten alive. The 4k radar shows snow all the way to the coast by 00z Sunday night. Long Island is too warm though. It would have you believe that the subsidence sets up near KSWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 12z NAM looks very nice for both systems....coldest run so far with the 1st wave, and another nice 2-4" type front end deal for the 2nd. It actually shows an appreciable period of snow throughout the area. The snow map from the E-wall site shows maybe 1-3" even for the city. The NAM overdoing precip though makes me doubt it. Later in the run it warms up fast, and even way inland switches to plain rain eventually and gets well above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It actually shows an appreciable period of snow throughout the area. The snow map from the E-wall site shows maybe 1-3" even for the city. The NAM overdoing precip though makes me doubt it. Later in the run it warms up fast, and even way inland switches to plain rain eventually and gets well above freezing. I thought the NAM was underplaying precip amounts compared to its normal bullish Qpf predictions lol.. But it looks like it's making up for that with the past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The Nam probably has a stronger LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Winter weather advisory posted for my area ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 am EST Saturday... The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Orange and Putnam counties... which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 am EST Saturday. * Locations... Orange and Putnam counties * hazard types... sleet... snow and possible some light freezing rain or drizzle. * Accumulations... 1-2 inches of sleet and snow... thought higher elevation over 1000 ft may see 3-5 inches. Along with around a trace of ice. * Winds... north 5 to 10 mph. * Temperatures... falling into the upper 20s. . * visibilities... 1/2sm or less in snow from 11 PM through 4 am. * Timing... sleet this evening... mixing with and changing to snow by midnight. The precipitation may end as light freezing rain or drizzle towards daybreak. * Impacts... hazardous travel. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Gfs is once again very dry for the front end of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Gfs is once again very dry for the front end of the system Why is it really dry? Usually with these types of events the precip comes in either earlier than expected or a better precip shield than what the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Why is it really dry? Usually with these types of events the precip comes in either earlier than expected or a better precip shield than what the models show. Thats wave 1 for the city and coast , Wave 2 isnt going to look much better for the same areas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Primary isn't as strong = weaker warm front and less lifting Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Gfs looks colder for tonight with some frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Gfs looks colder for tonight with some frozen.[/quote I agree.. Not by much but slightly cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wave 2 , an inch max NYC Wave 3 , wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I really wouldn't stress too much about the GFS. The 06z GEFS ensembles were all wetter than the op. Sometimes the models can have trouble when they are dealing with more than one event in the short-medium range. In other words I think we'll need to wait for the 12z runs tomorrow to know for sure, once the current event is out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think if the euro comes in dry, it's cause for serious concern. The gfs has been pretty consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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