IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 There could be quite a bit of freezing rain and sleet around my old stomping grounds (State College). Man, do I not miss all of those ice storms that area has so often. You would think that some of the western burbs would see more icing events than we actually do. The last time we really had anything significant was 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The CAD is coming in stronger on the 18z GFS. Hr 69 has a closed 1036mb contour over PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The first wave of precip on the 18z GFS gets eaten alive. The 12z GGEM had a similar setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Going to be an ugly run. The second wave of precip is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS has become the new Dr. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS has become the new Dr. No I thought the 18z gfs looked a little better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The first wave of precip on the 18z GFS gets eaten alive. The 12z GGEM had a similar setup. The stronger CAD causes drier air, which eats up the precip. That's why a stronger high and CAD aren't always a good thing. Eventually the stronger high will move east, at which point we all are dealing with roaring SE winds and temps well into the 30s to 40 near the coast and in the city. It's why I have nearly zero hope for anything beyond a light period of snow amounting to maybe a coating near the city. And what does fall there will long be washed away at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I thought the 18z gfs looked a little better than 12z. For us in the South, yes. For him... too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It has the last wave stronger now for wed now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 yeah Idk, its hard to go against the consistency the gfs has over the past few days and for it to flip to this on an 18z. we will see what 00z says 18z gfs is 3" front end snow to rain for E.PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It has the last wave stronger now for wed now Yes, .25+ area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Where in Orange County are you located? I work at West Point but I live in new windsor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It has the last wave stronger now for wed now I still think that wave will end up being the most interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is a bit warmer than the op but I wouldn't give it to much stock at this range. It has a pretty good icing event for most of PA. why wouldn't u put stock in our best guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I still think that wave will end up being the most interesting. Same here especially for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 why wouldn't u put stock in our best guidance?Because it's the ensemble mean not the op. The lower resolution of the ensembles isn't good for the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Because it's the ensemble mean not the op. The lower resolution of the ensembles isn't good for the short range. i could be wrong about this, but i think the euro ensemble mean verifies superior to the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 i could be wrong about this, but i think the euro ensemble mean verifies superior to the OPIn the long range, absolutey. Short range, not so much. You look at the ensembles for trends. Inside 96 hours most of the models are going to be in fairly good agreement and the ensembles have less value, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yes, .25+ area wide. Surface still a little warm out here @ 120, but it would be nice to get some snow out of that wave and then have it on the ground for the next few days. Would rather have the snow on the backend of this sequence and stick around a little than the front end thump that gets washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 why wouldn't u put stock in our best guidance? It depends if he meant surface or mid-levels, the Euro is awful with surface wamrth beyond 72 hours, its always too warm, even in scenarios where we are easily too cold for anything but snow, but if he meant mid-levels then yeah I'd trust it, especially since if anything the Euro can have a cold bias in the mid-levels on occassion with these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It depends if he meant surface or mid-levels, the Euro is awful with surface wamrth beyond 72 hours, its always too warm, even in scenarios where we are easily too cold for anything but snow, but if he meant mid-levels then yeah I'd trust it, especially since if anything the Euro can have a cold bias in the mid-levels on occassion with these systems.Well in this case the Euro mean was warmer than even the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Surface still a little warm out here @ 120, but it would be nice to get some snow out of that wave and then have it on the ground for the next few days. Would rather have the snow on the backend of this sequence and stick around a little than the front end thump that gets washed away. Much agreed. I'll take a little mood snow accumulation with lasting cold over getting several inches and having it wash away the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 00z NAM is beautiful. Nice front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 00z NAM is beautiful. Nice front end dump. It has a little more precip than the gfs but it's a bit warmer as well, probably an inch or two maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It has a little more precip than the gfs but it's a bit warmer as well, probably an inch or two maybe. Its about 0.30 frozen to start, snow and sleet although some of the period where the NAM is indicating sleet it would likely be snowing based on the sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Because it's the ensemble mean not the op. The lower resolution of the ensembles isn't good for the short range. Its fine in the short range..ill take it over the NAM which is a short range model any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 In the long range, absolutey. Short range, not so much. You look at the ensembles for trends. Inside 96 hours most of the models are going to be in fairly good agreement and the ensembles have less value, Def true...but ill still take the euro ensemble mean over most of our short range models. And the models always aren't in good agreement inside 96 hrs as we see every winter. But yea I usually don't use the euro ensembles for short range but like I said, still more accurate than the short high and hi res models. Obv once its inside 48 hrs out its stupid to use the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 There continues to be some hope on the CIPS analogs, as was discussed 12/28/90 still showing up, its not going to be that good because the wave is much stronger with more WAA...an interesting one showing now is 12/09/86...its actually a very good hit at 500mb, not so much at the surface, the high positioning was not as good as this event and we had more of a SE flow vs. this event where the flow may be more ENE...even in that event LGA had about a 3-4 hour period of snow to start...here is the link...as you can see very similar at 500mb, surface setup not quite as good as high was already more into its departing stage and more NW which enabled the SE flow. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1986/us1209.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 00z gfs out to hr 66, what a nice thump of snow for dca on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 dry air winning again on the 00z gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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