IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That run wasn't good for snow for anyone, including northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That run wasn't good for snow for anyone, including northern New England. Hopefully it's off its rocker like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hopefully it's off its rocker like usual. The GGEM and NAM aren't good either. We have to hope that the models are under estimating the WAA push. That should get precip in earlier while it's still cold enough at the surface to snow. I always thought this was a more favorable setup for the mid-atlantic than us. The 12z GFS would be a serious freezing rain threat for Central and Western VA. At hour 90 the 850mb freezing line is into Buffalo and the surface freezing line is touching the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hopefully it's off its rocker like usual. Well, we can't blame initialization errors this time: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hopefully it's off its rocker like usual. lol,what model are you actually relying on, being that none show anything significant at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 By hr 93 everyone is rain from hpn south. Not much of a front thump Have to watch out for dry air also. The high being further south and CAD being stronger might make it a little colder, but it also strengthens the dry air the precip has to get through. That and the onshore wind mean that I don't see anyone really having much snow. There could be more significant ice well inland after the mid level warm layer comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What i dont understand is how we dry out so much between all the moist air saturday morning till precip starts sunday. Its not like we have been cold and dry for days leading up to this. Were in the same flow for the next few days. seems like when these systems get into the short range this year they completely fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Thanks Don much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 We need to hope that Saturday morning over performs and we end up with somewhat of a snowpack. That will help lock in the cold air some. It doesn't help that it's so warm today. BTW the 12z GFS was a serious ice storm from DCA west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The GGEM and NAM aren't good either. We have to hope that the models are under estimating the WAA push. That should get precip in earlier while it's still cold enough at the surface to snow. I always thought this was a more favorable setup for the mid-atlantic than us. The 12z GFS would be a serious freezing rain threat for Central and Western VA. At hour 90 the 850mb freezing line is into Buffalo and the surface freezing line is touching the VA/NC border. The 12z GGEM shows a nice 6 hr front end dump for NNJ & Hudson Valley.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The 12z GGEM is awful for NW of the city in terms of potential icing. Front end dump, followed by significant ice and ending as light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If the GGEM has any idea then we are in for a legit winter storm up this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If the GGEM has any idea then we are in for a legit winter storm up this way.. NW tier of counties probably going to end up with a watch by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 nice GGEM looks good for some wintry precip at least here in Denville and esp north/west of there... anyone know skill scores of the models lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Those ptypes for the GGEM if my memory serves me correctly are usually too warm at the coast when differentiating SN vs RA and too stubbornly cold inland when going from FZRA to RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Those ptypes for the GGEM if my memory serves me correctly are usually too warm at the coast when differentiating SN vs RA and too stubbornly cold inland when going from FZRA to RA.I wouldn't bet my house on them verifying but it's nice to see at least one model showing a significant storm. The main story from OKC to New England will be the ice. GFS showed up to an inch of QPF falling as ZR west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Those ptypes for the GGEM if my memory serves me correctly are usually too warm at the coast when differentiating SN vs RA and too stubbornly cold inland when going from FZRA to RA. If precip doesn't arrive until surface high pressure is over or east of Maine, any snow on the coast will change to rain faster than you can say bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 So on the GGEM snow starts around 11pm and the changeover starts around 6am. If it verifies it will be an ugly morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If precip doesn't arrive until surface high pressure is over or east of Maine, any snow on the coast will change to rain faster than you can say bust.The GGEM has little snow SE of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GGEM shows a nice dump of snow for the Sunday/ Monday event for me up here in Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If precip doesn't arrive until surface high pressure is over or east of Maine, any snow on the coast will change to rain faster than you can say bust. The 850 WAA from 00-06Z is remarkable over NJ, some places see a +6 to +8C increase in temps from as low as -7 to -8C initially...that is going to generate precipitation without a doubt, for some reason or another the GFS does not see that right now...some of the Mets in the SNE thread suggest its purely the GFS seeing that the forcing at 500mb and above weakens so its keying all its precip on the forcing and not seeing that the WAA will generate alot of precip on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I wouldn't bet my house on them verifying but it's nice to see at least one model showing a significant storm. The main story from OKC to New England will be the ice. GFS showed up to an inch of QPF falling as ZR west of DC. Yeah places like IAD are gonna get it bad down there, DCA and metro DC will probably be okay overall, the models sometimes like to show them holding onto the wedge there in these setups but it almost never happens, I always equate the immediate area near DCA airport on the E and S side of Metro DC to the opposite of Orange County in winter storms, both manage to pull things out of their ass to make things not happen and happen respectively when the models strongly indicate it will/won't. DCA somehow always ends up 33 or 34 and RA even when you think this is the event they stay at 30-31 the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If precip doesn't arrive until surface high pressure is over or east of Maine, any snow on the coast will change to rain faster than you can say bust. Between the dry air and the warm surge, there is only very short window for accumulating snow near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Between the dry air and the warm surge, there is only very short window for accumulating snow near the coast. The WAA surge strongly suggests more precip than the gfs, I think everyone starts with a nice burst of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The WAA surge strongly suggests more precip than the gfs, I think everyone starts with a nice burst of snow. The GGEM was on the dry side up until the 12z run today. Hopefully it's the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I wouldn't bet my house on them verifying but it's nice to see at least one model showing a significant storm. The main story from OKC to New England will be the ice. GFS showed up to an inch of QPF falling as ZR west of DC. 0z Euro showed a good winter event for the interior as well... The GFS is really the only one showing a "non-event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z Euro is probably snow for Sullivan County by Midnight Friday night. And at least a snow/rain/sleet mix for NW areas by sunrise. Maps spitting out 2-4" from KMMU north and 4-6" from KSWF north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If precip doesn't arrive until surface high pressure is over or east of Maine, any snow on the coast will change to rain faster than you can say bust. Seeing the 40F isotherm near the coast before the precip arrives on an ESE wind always makes me taper expectations my way. I'm not expecting much more than some mood flakes or some sleet pellets before rain in my town. Maybe the city can salvage an hour or two of snow before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z ECMWF coming in wetter than the GFS for Sunday night/Monday event. Surface freezing line hangs around I-95. Probably a mix for the city east to start. Hour 96 is freezing rain from I-80 north. Orange County is mostly snow still at that hour and by hr 102 we're all rain but precip is shutting off by that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z Euro actually looks a lot like the 12z GGEM. 6 hour or so front end dump I-95 north west. Some icing I-80 north. Clown maps spitting out 1-3" for the city. 2-4" for the I-78 corridor in NJ. 4-6" north of I-80 and west of Rt. 23. Southeastern Upstate NY is a foot plus combined from both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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