IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What happens between hour 96 and 102, why does the moderate precip erode south? Coastal forms a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Coastal forms a bit faster. Oh I see now thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It looks good for a general 1-2" before the changeover, hopefully we see more moisture with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 hr 90 light snow up to nyc…. hr 93 light to mod snow in the area 850s are above freezing by 06z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The coastal falls apart and the 2m 0C moves north between HR 96 - 102. Probably a couple of inches of snow before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 tuesday we get some light snow from a follow up wave, usually they never work out…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The number one date on the 96 hours analog map for this storm is 12/27/90. Nyc wasnt expecting alot. NYC ended up with over 5 inches. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 We have dry wedge between 800-900mb, midday on Sunday. This is eats away some of initial precip in the NYC area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The number one date on the 96 hours analog map for this storm is 12/27/90. Nyc wasnt expecting alot. NYC ended up with over 5 inches. Interesting. you have a link to that analog map(s) site ? - would be much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NWS has me forecasted at 2-4 inches Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looks about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The 4k 12z NAM is a solid 1-2" of mostly rain for the entire forecast area from today through Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The number one date on the 96 hours analog map for this storm is 12/27/90. Nyc wasnt expecting alot. NYC ended up with over 5 inches. Interesting. Its actually been the #1 analog at 96 hours now 2 consecutive runs in a row, the 12Z and 00Z runs yesterday, unfortunately none of the other analogs are very useful, all either had a warmer airmass in place before the event with no strong high to the north, 12/14/00 did have a high to the north but the system ejecting from the SW was much stronger than this event so it warmed everything up quickly, I'd be surprised if this event ended up as good as 12/28/90 because this system will be stronger and will push warm air faster. It usually comes down to 2 factors with these events, can a few mesoscale bands form and can the snow start a few hours earlier than expected...a few years ago I took a look with one other Met at the Feb 2008, Dec 2003, Feb 2000, 2/11/94 events, all of which were these SWFE events slamming into big highs where snow started several hours earlier than anticipated, and in the case of the 2/08 and 12/03 events way before..we found the 700mb RH can often tip you off to what your possible early start time is, if you look at last night's 00Z GFS even though snow does not commence til 20-22Z Sunday the 700mb RH would indicate snow would begin around 16Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 you have a link to that analog map(s) site ? - would be much appreciated http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Its actually been the #1 analog at 96 hours now 2 consecutive runs in a row, the 12Z and 00Z runs yesterday, unfortunately none of the other analogs are very useful, all either had a warmer airmass in place before the event with no strong high to the north, 12/14/00 did have a high to the north but the system ejecting from the SW was much stronger than this event so it warmed everything up quickly, I'd be surprised if this event ended up as good as 12/28/90 because this system will be stronger and will push warm air faster. It usually comes down to 2 factors with these events, can a few mesoscale bands form and can the snow start a few hours earlier than expected...a few years ago I took a look with one other Met at the Feb 2008, Dec 2003, Feb 2000, 2/11/94 events, all of which were these SWFE events slamming into big highs where snow started several hours earlier than anticipated, and in the case of the 2/08 and 12/03 events way before..we found the 700mb RH can often tip you off to what your possible early start time is, if you look at last night's 00Z GFS even though snow does not commence til 20-22Z Sunday the 700mb RH would indicate snow would begin around 16Z Sunday. THIS is why this site is so awesome. Great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Its actually been the #1 analog at 96 hours now 2 consecutive runs in a row, the 12Z and 00Z runs yesterday, unfortunately none of the other analogs are very useful, all either had a warmer airmass in place before the event with no strong high to the north, 12/14/00 did have a high to the north but the system ejecting from the SW was much stronger than this event so it warmed everything up quickly, I'd be surprised if this event ended up as good as 12/28/90 because this system will be stronger and will push warm air faster. It usually comes down to 2 factors with these events, can a few mesoscale bands form and can the snow start a few hours earlier than expected...a few years ago I took a look with one other Met at the Feb 2008, Dec 2003, Feb 2000, 2/11/94 events, all of which were these SWFE events slamming into big highs where snow started several hours earlier than anticipated, and in the case of the 2/08 and 12/03 events way before..we found the 700mb RH can often tip you off to what your possible early start time is, if you look at last night's 00Z GFS even though snow does not commence til 20-22Z Sunday the 700mb RH would indicate snow would begin around 16Z Sunday. Interesting. . Good explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Its actually been the #1 analog at 96 hours now 2 consecutive runs in a row, the 12Z and 00Z runs yesterday, unfortunately none of the other analogs are very useful, all either had a warmer airmass in place before the event with no strong high to the north, 12/14/00 did have a high to the north but the system ejecting from the SW was much stronger than this event so it warmed everything up quickly, I'd be surprised if this event ended up as good as 12/28/90 because this system will be stronger and will push warm air faster. It usually comes down to 2 factors with these events, can a few mesoscale bands form and can the snow start a few hours earlier than expected...a few years ago I took a look with one other Met at the Feb 2008, Dec 2003, Feb 2000, 2/11/94 events, all of which were these SWFE events slamming into big highs where snow started several hours earlier than anticipated, and in the case of the 2/08 and 12/03 events way before..we found the 700mb RH can often tip you off to what your possible early start time is, if you look at last night's 00Z GFS even though snow does not commence til 20-22Z Sunday the 700mb RH would indicate snow would begin around 16Z Sunday. I know it's the NAM at 84 hours, but at 12z today you can already see how anyone near the shore is doomed with the second event on the weekend, due to the ESE winds pushing ground temps to above freezing even with 850mb temps a lot cooler, before precip even arrives (and a good amount of the initial precip may be eaten up due to mid level dry air). It might be better around I-287 and on west, but the air directly off the water looks like it will kill any chances around here or the city for much more than some slop that gets quickly washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 you can already see the major changes the models have undergone over the last 36 hours showing the high further south (basically overhead) and with much better CAD. By hr 72 on the GFS this is very clear.The end result may not change, however, as this allows much drier air to be overhead, and given the dry wedge we have we may be fighting to get precip in here while temps support snow, then easily change to rain as warm air surges. Either way Id much rather have a chance of accumulating snow, then not, so I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I know it's the NAM at 84 hours, but at 12z today you can already see how anyone near the shore is doomed with the second event on the weekend, due to the ESE winds pushing ground temps to above freezing even with 850mb temps a lot cooler, before precip even arrives (and a good amount of the initial precip may be eaten up due to mid level dry air). It might be better around I-287 and on west, but the air directly off the water looks like it will kill any chances around here or the city for much more than some slop that gets quickly washed away. I would be shocked if the coast gets much more than a coating before it goes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hr 81 gfs had light snow up to ewr. Dry air once again hurting the front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I know it's the NAM at 84 hours, but at 12z today you can already see how anyone near the shore is doomed with the second event on the weekend, due to the ESE winds pushing ground temps to above freezing even with 850mb temps a lot cooler, before precip even arrives (and a good amount of the initial precip may be eaten up due to mid level dry air). It might be better around I-287 and on west, but the air directly off the water looks like it will kill any chances around here or the city for much more than some slop that gets quickly washed away. This will be my first "storm" living in White Plains, will be interesting to see the diference between here and back home in southern queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Out to hr 87 cold enough for snow, yet the dry air eating away the preciep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 By hr 93 everyone is rain from hpn south. Not much of a front thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 any analog storm for this event should be from early December when water temperatures are similar...I guess the Dec. 1990 analog had similar water temps even though it was three weeks later...I've seen many a snow forecast this time of year not pan out...One of those years was in December 1975 when snow was in the forecast but mostly rain fell on se winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 By hr 99 it's rain up to orh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Terrible 12z GFS run for snow lovers everywhere. Not much of a front end thump. It's colder to start but the dry air eats up the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The 12z GFS holds on too much dry air between 800-900mb, around 18z Sun in NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 any analog storm for this event should be from early December when water temperatures are similar...I guess the Dec. 1990 analog had similar water temps even though it was three weeks later...I've seen many a snow forecast this time of year not pan out...One of those years was in December 1975 when snow was in the forecast but mostly rain fell on se winds... Dec '89 was a disaster in terms of snow despite all the cold. A forecast for 4-8" of snow on 12/15 turned into a 40 degree rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The 12z GFS holds on too much dry air between 800-900mb, around 18z Sun in NYC: That's another big concern about this storm. Although if you look at the 700 RH fields, there is a lot of moisture as the CAD is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That's another big concern about this storm. Although if you look at the 700 RH fields, there is a lot of moisture as the CAD is going on. The dry air comes with the stronger CAD. Snow will mostly evaporate in the dry layer below 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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