MJO812 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Coldest euro run by far for this weekends event. A little more south with the cold and everyone will be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The Euro ensembles are coming out now. The 12z GEFS were a bit warmer than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The 15z SREF's have the rain snow line right along I-80 for Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is colder than the op for Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 12z ECMWF ensemble mean has it snowing by 18z on Sunday. That's pretty significant because at that hour the 850mb freezing line is well south into the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 from FB, for Saturday changover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 those maps are garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 For Saturday morning on the 18z NAM it's definitely cold enough for snow at the 850mb level but the surface hangs in the mid-30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Coldest euro run by far for this weekends event. A little more south with the cold and everyone will be in business. Only if you are north and west of 287 and I- 80 - only a chance of a brief mixture at the start sunday night rest of the NYC Metro - need the NAO to be negative to hold the cold enough air in place and its not going to be - notice how the NAO outlook completly changed from yesterdays negative numbers to a positive NAO - beginning to wonder if we will even get a negative NAO period this month. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 For Friday night, the 18z NAM and 18z GFS both have steady moderate to heavy rain over the region. I also think we need to split this into two separate threads, one for Saturday and one for Monday. The 18z GFS is definitely warmer at both levels for Saturday morning. By the time it's cold enough the precip is shutting off. Including areas well NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Through hr 96 the gfs is stronger with the cad, central VA gets a lot of wintry preciep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Hr 99 is light-mod snow for the metro area, this is a colder run. hr 102 rain/snow line is at ttn. Very nice front end thump on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 hr 108 the city-south and east over to rain, nw still frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Only if you are north and west of 287 and I- 80 - only a chance of a brief mixture at the start sunday night rest of the NYC Metro - need the NAO to be negative to hold the cold enough air in place and its not going to be - notice how the NAO outlook completly changed from yesterdays negative numbers to a positive NAO - beginning to wonder if we will even get a negative NAO period this month. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif I'm not optimistic right now for this series of systems for our immediate area, maybe well inland could fare better. The warm air is too close by and nothing is stopping the low(s) from riding west of our area and pumping up the SE ridge. There's no resistance over SE Canada-no 50-50 low, no block of any kind. Often, SWFE type storms trend north at the last minute also. I think for anywhere near the city it's vast majority rain, which is still much needed here. There could be a narrow swath over the Northeast maybe from central PA to interior New England which could have real wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 18z GFS clown maps spitting out 2-4" front end dump NW of I-95. 1-2" closer to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 18z GFS clown maps spitting out 2-4" front end dump NW of I-95. 1-2" closer to the city. 18z TEXT .7" liquid as snow. ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 For the first gfs run we have a closed slp off the delmarva at 105. THIS could potentially hold in the cad just a little longer. Interesting battle brewing between slp's now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks like a 3rd piece of energy slides by at 144 . Tues time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 For the first gfs run we have a closed slp off the delmarva at 105. THIS could potentially hold in the cad just a little longer. Interesting battle brewing between slp's now! There's still a lot of time for enough small changes to add up to something favorable. Of course I always personally expect nothing and if anything falls then great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The EURO may be cold but you can tell the Op & its ensembles would pour pacific air into the Conus after 240 hours, not a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The EURO may be cold but you can tell the Op & its ensembles would pour pacific air into the Conus after 240 hours, not a fan. That's still way too far out for us to be certain that will actually happen. It may happen eventually but I have a feeling it could be delayed by several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks like a 3rd piece of energy slides by at 144 . Tues time frame Roughly half of the individual 12z GEFS members had some snow with a final wave along the boundary around that time frame. The 12z Canadian also had it. Definitely something to watch if the storm early next week fails to push the baroclinic zone too far offshore. Keeps things interesting through next week potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Roughly half of the individual 12z GEFS members had some snow with a final wave along the boundary around that time frame. The 12z Canadian also had it. Definitely something to watch if the storm early next week fails to push the baroclinic zone too far offshore. Keeps things interesting through next week potentially. It could be the most interesting wave of the set. Instead of waiting for the cold air or watching it get eroded, you finally have the cold air mostly in place with the wave to the east of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 12z ECMWF ensemble mean has it snowing by 18z on Sunday. That's pretty significant because at that hour the 850mb freezing line is well south into the Delmarva. The Euro does not do a great job thermally in these events beyond 72 hours alot of the time, frequently with these SWFEs the GFS can be better than the Euro in the 72-96 hour period on the thermal profile alone, once inside 72 hours I'll start trusting the Euro more. Bottom line with that high to the north and the remarkable isentropic lift occurring Sun aft/Eve I'd be very surprised if 2-3 inches of snow at least did not occur even for most coastal regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It could be the most interesting wave of the set. Instead of waiting for the cold air or watching it get eroded, you finally have the cold air mostly in place with the wave to the east of you I agree for places right along the coast. I don't love the upper level progs for the day 6 threat, but I think you're exactly right. The limiting factor for coastal regions when the boundary is draped right across the region is usually lack of access to cold air. You can't be in the game until the boundary gets pushed far enough east. I still think most of the region has a good shot at accumulating snow on Sun. Esp away from the immediate coast. And far N&W, esp elevated, has a shot late Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 out to hr 84 on the gfs and its coming out even colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 hr 90 light snow up to nyc…. hr 93 light to mod snow in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 hr 96 snowing still…rain/snow line at phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Really nice front end thump on the 00z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What happens between hour 96 and 102, why does the moderate precip erode south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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