Dec 8th - 9th (2nd wave/winter storm discussion)

[dbc]

Speaking of which, is there a good place to learn how to read and understand them? As an amateur enthusiast I'm not always sure what I'm looking at.

http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t95-how-to-read-a-skew-t-chart-sounding

http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_HowTo.html

[MJO812]

12z GGEM develops the coastal faster. Snow to rain for the majority.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

We all know that it's pretty common in these setups for the cold air to stay at the surface longer than modeled anyway.

Agreed... Been plenty of times I haven't changed to rain at all... Not saying that is the case for this event but keeping the cold longer than models

predict isn't out of the question

[IsentropicLift]

12z GGEM develops the coastal faster. Snow to rain for the majority.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

It's unbelievable how much IP/ZR it shows for the Tennessee Valley 

 

The GGEM has a mix for a lot of the western sections

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

12z GGEM develops the coastal faster. Snow to rain for the majority.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Keeps me in snow for quit a while north of the city... But the GGEM doesn't usual Handle events well this far out...

[MikeS]

http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t95-how-to-read-a-skew-t-chart-sounding

http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_HowTo.html

 

Thanks!

[Weathergun]

There really isn't a big sleet and freezing rain signal in the GFS Skew-T soundings. It's straight column profile, between the snow to rain transition.This is because the 925mb low is going west of the area.

[jm1220]

There really isn't a big sleet and freezing rain signal in the GFS Skew-T soundings. It's straight column profile, between the snow to rain transition.This is because the 925mb low is going west of the area.

Most times in these CAD setups it really does just go to rain around the city and coast. Inland holds cold air better and gets sleet/ZR.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

In my opinion the GGEM has always been good for now casting with precip start and end times as well as snow banding but not as a mid/long range model

[NorthShoreWx]

Yep, east wind , Party over, every time

Most of the time.  Not every time:

 

http://www.northshorewx.com/oes20050119.asp

[IsentropicLift]

The Euro looks like the GFS for the first event. Flips inland areas to snow Saturday morning. 850's are cold for everyone but the surface hangs around I-80. 1-3" north of I-80 and 4-6" for the Hudson Valley.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The Euro looks like the GFS for the first event. Flips inland areas to snow Saturday morning. 850's are cold for everyone but the surface hangs around I-80. 1-3" north of I-80 and 4-6" for the Hudson Valley.

Sounds nice.

[ADKweather27]

The Euro looks like the GFS for the first event. Flips inland areas to snow Saturday morning. 850's are cold for everyone but the surface hangs around I-80. 1-3" north of I-80 and 4-6" for the Hudson Valley.

This will be my first storm at my new house in White Plains, going to be bordline but maybe swtich to snow at very end.

[Isotherm]

Those who are hoping for prolonged sleet/ice on the coast, this is not the proper synoptic set-up for that. Retreating surface high pressure to the east and a low track west of the area spells lower boundary layer contamination, aka rain. In order for the coastal plain to remain frozen, you'd want strong high pressure further west than currently progged so that wind direction remains N/NELY for the duration of the event. Can't get sleet or ZR with east winds in early December. Looks like minor snow accumulations to rain for the coast. There's a chance we improve on the front end thump if precip can arrive here earlier on Sunday, when surface high pressure is still centered in Quebec.

 

2007 Feb Valentine's Day event. Ice/sleet for the coast. Notice the sprawling highs to the north and a low track near or just south of us. Intense low as well.

 

[IsentropicLift]

12z Euro has the big warm push between 00z and 06z Monday, and by 12z we're all rain outside of KSWF north and west.

[Isotherm]

For the front-end thump potential, hope for precip to overspread earlier on Sunday. Note on the snow maps DCA burbs do fairly well. Need the precip in here while the surface high is still around.

[IsentropicLift]

Good run for Western New England. Front end dump is 1-3 or 2-4 type deal for most. Favored regions might be 3-6

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Good run for Western New England. Front end dump is 1-3 or 2-4 type deal for most. Favored regions might be 3-6

Good start. As long as Central Park has 3"+ of snow for the month.

[IsentropicLift]

Good start. As long as Central Park has 3"+ of snow.

Well the clown maps show a combination of 2-4" of snow from both events in NYC, but a majority of that I think falls Saturday morning.

 

One thing that I haven't seen mentioned yet is that if we do indeed have a snowpack come Saturday afternoon, it will aide in keeping the surface colder longer for Sunday/Monday.

[rsteff]

Most of the time.  Not every time:

 

http://www.northshorewx.com/oes20050119.asp

You got me there. Well done. I have seen us remain snow with a weak clipper coming right at us from the west. Usually the winds are southwest but very light.

[SnoSki14]

The high is to the north of us initially so there will be some CAD influence and some front end frozen. As the high moves away then it's more rain vs snow with snow being confined much further to the N&W.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

KMMU

131208/1800Z 114 07008KT 31.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0

131208/2100Z 117 06009KT 30.1F SNOW 12:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0

131209/0000Z 120 05010KT 31.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

131209/0300Z 123 06011KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.148 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.33 0| 0|100

131209/0600Z 126 06012KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.248 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.58 0| 0|100

131209/0900Z 129 06010KT 36.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.310 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.89 0| 0|100

131209/1200Z 132 09013KT 40.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.195 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 1.09 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

131209/1500Z 135 18007KT 46.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.318 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 1.40 0| 0|100

131209/1800Z 138 26006KT 45.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.445 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 1.85 0| 0|100

131209/2100Z 141 26007KT 44.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 2.00 0| 0|100

131210/0000Z 144 27009KT 42.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 2.00 0| 0| 0

Do you have a link for this text output by city? I lost my bookmark. Thanks.

[Allsnow]

Euro snow maps are 2-4 for the metro area

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The euro is the best run yet for New England area. Couple inches everywhere save for very immediate coast

[IsentropicLift]

Euro snow maps are 2-4 for the metro area

No it's not. Most of that falls Saturday morning. Sunday night is 1-2" at most unless you go 40+ miles NW of the city.

[Allsnow]

No it's not. Most of that falls Saturday morning. Sunday night is 1-2" at most unless you go 40+ miles NW of the city.

Only extreme nw jersey gets snow Saturday morning. NYC does not see any, it all comes Sunday evening. You should learn to read maps better. This is one of many mistakes today from you

[atownwxwatcher]

IMO from ECM Data 

Referencing PA/NJ to NYC

12 Z ECM light precipitation moves in between 102-108 hrs, By 114 the heaviest precipitation has not yet moved into east central PA and its just light to moderate precipitation across PA with thicknesses already between 546-552. By hr 120 heaviest precipitation is over East Central PA into NJ and into NYC with thicknesses of 546 all the way into Central NY and south into PA 552-558. 
Surface temps at 120 are in the upper 20s to lower 30s in NE PA mid to upper 30s East Central PA (ABE area) upper 20s to lower 30s NW NJ south of there in NJ upper 30s northern part to mid 50s southern part and lower 40s around NYC..

In Summary..NE PA and NW NJ looks like it would hang on to ICE..everyone else would start as frozen and change to rain...

[IsentropicLift]

Only extreme nw jersey gets snow Saturday morning. NYC does not see any, it all comes Sunday evening. You should learn to read maps better. This is one of many mistakes today from you

Agree to disagree. Perhaps we would both be better off ignoring each others posts.

[96blizz]

IMO from ECM Data 

Referencing PA/NJ to NYC

12 Z ECM light precipitation moves in between 102-108 hrs, By 114 the heaviest precipitation has not yet moved into east central PA and its just light to moderate precipitation across PA with thicknesses already between 546-552. By hr 120 heaviest precipitation is over East Central PA into NJ and into NYC with thicknesses of 546 all the way into Central NY and south into PA 552-558. 

Surface temps at 120 are in the upper 20s to lower 30s in NE PA mid to upper 30s East Central PA (ABE area) upper 20s to lower 30s NW NJ south of there in NJ upper 30s northern part to mid 50s southern part and lower 40s around NYC..

In Summary..NE PA and NW NJ looks like it would hang on to ICE..everyone else would start as frozen and change to rain...

Lovely.  Hopefully it warms up enough later on Monday to melt the before nightfall!

[Quakertown needs snow]

12z Euro has 32 surface and 850 shifting north of NYC by 12z Monday.