Zelocita Weather Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Both the gfs and euro advertising several frontal waves moving along the arctic front between dec 6th and the 8th...the euro especially looks interesting with advertising some snow after the front sinks south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 GGEM and GEFS has snow in our area next weekend. Really interesting period to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z euro brings front through, nothing really follows it up. Its a pretty good shot of arctic air on the other side of the front. Storm is getting together out west, the entire nation is in the ice box. Next week def hold some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z euro bring a winter storm into the area monday. Snow to ice,Obv this is far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Thicknesses get to be 540 + as the precipitation arrives And it offers very little in the way of moisture thru 204 hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 not impressed. major SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Thicknesses get to be 540 + as the precipitation arrives And it offers very little in the way of moisture thru 204 hrs! Temps remain close to freezing and about 0.3-0.4 falls. I think just about anyone here would take 2-3 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Thicknesses get to be 540 + as the precipitation arrives And it offers very little in the way of moisture thru 204 hrs! A lot of moisture through 204 hours. Have to watch for a storm next weekend. All the models show this now. not impressed. major SE ridge Cold air is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 not impressed. major SE ridge Philly/DC gets a nice front end thump, could of sworn it was going to be a cutter looking at 168 hours, it still does, but that HP (showing up on all models) of 1044 or so is impressive. Here in Philly we haven't had an old fashioned heavy snow to rain event in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Thats some serious early season arctic air in the center of the nation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Temps remain close to freezing and about 0.3-0.4 falls. I think just about anyone here would take 2-3 inches of snow. Yes! Verbatim it would be a few inches of snow before any changeover, obv to far out to narrow it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 A lot of moisture through 204 hours. Have to watch for a storm next weekend. All the models show this now. Cold air is impressive I see a very disorganized area of moisture with the most in south central PA at 198 hrs and thicknesses at 540 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I see a very disorganized area of moisture with the most in south central PA at 204 hrs and thicknesses at 540 + ecmwf_qpf_th500_ne_34.jpg It's stupid to argue specifics 8-9 days out but that's clearly snow. Check bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 not impressed. major SE ridge That might actually help in this case. You have a massive arctic high pressure pressing down that meets resistance from the SE ridge thus allowing storms and shortwaves to develop on the boundary and potentially gives us some frozen precipitation. Wouldn't this be a gradient pattern? Of course we are on the boundary, which doesn't give me too much comfort. This could be a case where it favors New England more so than us down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I see a very disorganized area of moisture with the most in south central PA at 204 hrs and thicknesses at 540 + ecmwf_qpf_th500_ne_34.jpg My Sv maps have most of the snow between 190-198. At hr 198 the 12z euro has the 540 line south of ttn and surface around i-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 My Sv maps have most of the snow between 190-198. At hr 198 the 12z euro has the 540 line south of ttn and surface around i-80 198 is what I posted.. I just posted the high res map and made a typo with 204... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Temps remain close to freezing and about 0.3-0.4 falls. I think just about anyone here would take 2-3 inches of snow. Absolutely. Especially in December. January/February are our main snow months, so I look at any snow in December as a nice bonus. A 1 to 3 inch storm in December is very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Absolutely. Especially in December. January/February are our main snow months, so I look at any snow in December as a nice bonus. A 1 to 3 inch storm in December is very nice. Anything that solidly coats the ground is a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Absolutely. Especially in December. January/February are our main snow months, so I look at any snow in December as a nice bonus. A 1 to 3 inch storm in December is very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Absolutely. Especially in December. January/February are our main snow months, so I look at any snow in December as a nice bonus. A 1 to 3 inch storm in December is very nice. If you are looking for above average snow this winter, then you need above average snow in December. Courtesy of NYCSuburbs...winters with below average snow in December. Year ---- Total winter snowfall1877 ---- 8.1"1882 ---- 44.0"1885 ---- 20.8"1888 ---- 16.5"1891 ---- 25.4"1936 ---- 15.6"1943 ---- 23.8"1953 ---- 15.8"1965 ---- 21.4"1971 ---- 22.9"1972 ---- 2.8"1994 ---- 11.8"1996 ---- 10.0"1997 ---- 5.5"1999 ---- 16.3"2001 ---- 3.5"2006 ---- 12.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 If you are looking for above average snow this winter, then you need above average snow in December. Courtesy of NYCSuburbs...winters with below average snow in December. Year ---- Total winter snowfall1877 ---- 8.1"1882 ---- 44.0"1885 ---- 20.8"1888 ---- 16.5"1891 ---- 25.4"1936 ---- 15.6"1943 ---- 23.8"1953 ---- 15.8"1965 ---- 21.4"1971 ---- 22.9"1972 ---- 2.8"1994 ---- 11.8"1996 ---- 10.0"1997 ---- 5.5"1999 ---- 16.3"2001 ---- 3.5"2006 ---- 12.4" the one exception was during the little ice age. not good odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 A lot of moisture through 204 hours. Have to watch for a storm next weekend. All the models show this now. Cold air is impressive It's still 7 days+ out. Frontal wave/boundary placement can vary alot from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 the one exception was during the little ice age. not good odds I consider just getting to average a success. So when you look at snowfall through that lens we can achieve that goal with better odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 gfs has snow moving in on sunday, big snow/ice threat for the mid-atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I don't remember the last time forky actually introduced anything constructive to the conversation. I thought his comment was pertinent. Forky's posting style is terse, but if you pay attention, he knows what he is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 snow-rain on the 18z gfs…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I don't remember the last time forky actually introduced anything constructive to the conversation. I love how people on here dismiss comments that either they disagree with or challenge their bias(es) as "not constructive". Pretty sure Forky knows what he's talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 18z is stormy throughout the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I'm not an idiot. I'm looking at this pattern in a skeptical fashion as well. When things set up as progged for the next 10 days, it's hard to suggest it won't be both cold, and also have several chances at snow/ice. I'm not suggesting a big storm threat or anything of the sort. In fact several days ago I commented on the gradient pattern and posited that depending on where it sets up, things could end up at least ok for us with some cold and snow and ice threats. This looks like what were dealing with for day 6-7+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z CMC total snow with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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