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December Banter Thread

H2O

By H2O,
in Mid Atlantic

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted

i just said he could be right. no yay from me. but ok.

 

C'mon, katie, of course he could be right. But he's not saying that based in any reading of the models or any other meteorology. He's doing it to troll. Even the last two runs that have poor Ji on suicide watch are plenty icy for most everyone on our board. Coming in and saying what he is without reference to any basis for it is trolling (for instance, does he think the Low is going to be much stronger than projected and deepen in the great lakes, drawing warmer air into our area faster and scouring out the CAD more efficiently? Doubt he's thought it through that much myself...). Hence the churlish knob stuff.

 

In any event, I am rooting for everyone on here to get a good solid event. I won't be here for it. I will miss most of whatever this is, as I will be in Cincinnati on Sunday for the Bengals/Colts game, but will be driving back after through whatever is falling.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

C'mon, katie, of course he could be right. But he's not saying that based in any reading of the models or any other meteorology. He's doing it to troll. Even the last two runs that have poor Ji on suicide watch are plenty icy for most everyone on our board. Coming in and saying what he is without reference to any basis for it is trolling (for instance, does he think the Low is going to be much stronger than projected and deepen in the great lakes, drawing warmer air into our area faster? Doubt he's thought it through that much myself...). Hence the churlish knob stuff.

 

In any event, I am rooting for everyone on here to get a good solid event. I won't be here for it. I will miss most of whatever this is, as I will be in Cincinnati on Sunday for the Bengals/Colts game, but will be driving back after through whatever is falling.

 

if you know he is doing it just to troll, why bother commenting? negative attention is still attention.

 

Have a safe trip! :)

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted

if you know he is doing it just to troll, why bother commenting? negative attention is still attention.

 

Have a safe trip! :)

Well, I wouldn't ordinarily, because I have him on "ignore"...which doesn't work on the tapatalk app for the iPhone, apparently, hence my initial half-joking post referencing banning him.

 

Thanks for the wishes on the trip, a little worried about the ride back. Have rented a car and will get the rental car insurance coverage for it, which will help my peace of mind somewhat for the drive back...

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nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

Posted
Posted

C'mon, katie, of course he could be right. But he's not saying that based in any reading of the models or any other meteorology. He's doing it to troll. Even the last two runs that have poor Ji on suicide watch are plenty icy for most everyone on our board. Coming in and saying what he is without reference to any basis for it is trolling. Hence the churlish knob stuff.

 

In any event, I am rooting for everyone on here to get a good solid event. I won't be here for it. I will miss most of whatever this is, as I will be in Cincinnati on Sunday for the Bengals/Colts game, but will be driving back after through whatever is falling.

 

Matt already commented on this, but there are going to be a lot of fun NFL weather games this weekend, including Cincy.  Green Bay looks like the best as far as snow is concerned, and Denver's forecast is in the teens for game time.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

Well, I wouldn't ordinarily, because I have him on "ignore"...which doesn't work on the tapatalk app for the iPhone, apparently, hence my initial half-joking post referencing banning him.

 

Thanks for the wishes on the trip, a little worried about the ride back. Have rented a car and will get the rental car insurance coverage for it, which will help my peace of mind somewhat for the drive back...

 

i know what you mean, re: tapatalk.  i gotta read snowfan's poor attempts at trolling when I'm on my phone vs computer.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

HM I think you have me misunderstood. I thinl probabilities are good. However, at a range like 48 hours an appropriate range does not harm your method or reputation. I like CWG's methodology as I said, I just think the public, as unfortunate as it is, wants to know the real straightforward details. We live in an immediate gratification era of society, therefore disallowing any true patience cor probabilties when someone is just trying to catch the forecast before work. Chaos dominates unfortunately. Scenarios being laid out and choosing one you favor works as well. My apologies for the misunderstanding.

 

So you are basically saying that probabilistic forecasting doesn't provide sufficient details to the public? And now that we have "instant gratification" we should just provide a quick deterministic forecast in a tricky setup anyway? To be honest, I'm not really following your train of thought here with that sentence.

 

As for the last sentence, you basically are implying that this method doesn't show which one you favor. As time moves forward,  you collect more accurate info and you adjust the probabilities. It is as simple as that and the confidence will grow with time. So you DO choose which one you think happens this way while providing the range of most likely outcomes...sharing valuable information.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

The public couldn't give two s**ts about probabilistic forecasting. They want the weatherman to tell them what's going to happen, and, if that doesn't happen, then they want to be able to blame the weatherman.

 

I don't agree at all. I think everyone understands how difficult weather forecasting can be (despite how far we've come) and understands there is inherent uncertainty that should be expressed.

 

A forecast, for example, like this: 40% 3-6", 30% 6-10", 20% 1-3", 10% <1", tells you more than a forecast like this: 100% chance of 3-6".  

 

The first one says the forecaster believes 3-6" is most likely and that there is a 90% chance of accumulating snow that totals over 1". If things do in fact bust, based on the most likely outcome, it is most likely to do so by being more snowy. This is great information for a snow removal company who needs to prepare, for example.

 

The second one says, 3-6" is coming. That may or may not be correct; but, over time you'll see that 100% forecasts do end up causing more harm than good. Now you might say, well you can tell the viewers how it may bust more snowy or whatever...but then you are being probabilistic now, just without the raw numbers. ;)

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted

I don't know, HM. In my opinion, the public wants easily and quickly digestible information - anything more than that will either be ignored or will be derided.

Those of us on this board understand the complexity of forecasting, but the general public assumes that since meteorologists study the weather, they should be able to forecast what will happen. They simply don't think about the myriad pieces of information that models and forecasters need to digest in order to even come up with a reasonable forecast. - let alone the idea of chaos and how that affects things.

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clueless

clueless

Posted
Posted

Was at my local Starbucks this am. An elderly gentleman with a walker is there on a usual basis. Probably widowed and the routine of Starbucks in the morning must make his day a bit brighter. He was in front of me in line. I said hello, for the first time, and he commented that he was not thrilled with the prospect of an Ice storm. Given that he was using a walker and 87 years of age, well, who would be? I told him maybe it wouldn't be so bad. But to be careful. As I am sure he will. I paid his tab. He is what remains of our Greatest Generation, I truly believe that moniker is no hyperbole. #payitforward.

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

Was at my local Starbucks this am. An elderly gentleman with a walker is there on a usual basis. Probably widowed and the routine of Starbucks in the morning must make his day a bit brighter. He was in front of me in line. I said hello, for the first time, and he commented that he was not thrilled with the prospect of an Ice storm. Given that he was using a walker and 87 years of age, well, who would be? I told him maybe it wouldn't be so bad. But to be careful. As I am sure he will. I paid his tab. He is what remains of our Greatest Generation, I truly believe that moniker is no hyperbole. #payitforward.

Nice gesture. Maybe you will get rewarded with an extra hour of snow before the pinging begins

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