wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 DT says BWI changes over to plain rain by 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NAM doesn't even give Westminster an a tenth of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Oh man. I am shaking in my boots now for the 12z GFS after seeing the 06z gfs and 12 nam.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Oh man. I am shaking in my boots now for the 12z GFS after seeing the 06z gfs and 12 nam....You should just mean the 12z nam, 6z gfs was snowlover's dream material. Where are you located now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 DT says BWI changes over to plain rain by 1pm. His map actually says Sunday 1am.... Editing FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The 6z GFS is basically the ideal run. We now have our upper bound. Doesn't matter, since it'll all be washed away come Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Discard the NAM...Init errors MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD935 AM EST THU DEC 05 2013VALID DEC 05/0000 UTC THRU DEC 08/1200 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST... ..SVRL DROPSONDES DELETED BY IAN L. MANUALLY APPROXIM'TED AND RE-UPLOADED......AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z CMC/UKMET/ECWMF ALONG WITH FINAL.PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00ZNAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS....NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLYTHIS MORNING......RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES......ASSOCIATED ARCTIC BOUNDARY SURGING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST...FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMETFORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm less worried about my bushes now...my haircut is complete...it only takes 5 minutes now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Discard the NAM...Init errors MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 935 AM EST THU DEC 05 2013 ..... ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ..SVRL DROPSONDES DELETED BY IAN L. MANUALLY APPROXIM'TED AND RE-UPLOADED... I hate that guy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Discard the NAM...Init errors MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 935 AM EST THU DEC 05 2013 VALID DEC 05/0000 UTC THRU DEC 08/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ..SVRL DROPSONDES DELETED BY IAN L. MANUALLY APPROXIM'TED AND RE-UPLOADED... ...AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z CMC/UKMET/ECWMF ALONG WITH FINAL. PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE... THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS. ...NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING... ...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC BOUNDARY SURGING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE Ian L ....nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I did it all for the screw job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Discard the NAM...Init errors MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 935 AM EST THU DEC 05 2013 VALID DEC 05/0000 UTC THRU DEC 08/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ..SVRL DROPSONDES DELETED BY IAN L. MANUALLY APPROXIM'TED AND RE-UPLOADED... ...AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z CMC/UKMET/ECWMF ALONG WITH FINAL. PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE... THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS. ...NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING... ...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC BOUNDARY SURGING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE They let Ian delete data? We CWG folks influence must be waxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I read that like 4 times trying to figure out what randy meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I read that like 4 times trying to figure out what randy meant I never did figure it out but did see you name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If the 84hr NAM is right in showing no snow, I don't want to hear too much crap about the 84hr NAM runs later this winter that will show 12-18" from a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I never did figure it out but did see you name.lol same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I mean the 6z gfs was best case and 12z nam was worst. Who knows what 12z gfs will show. Lol I am in Centreville, VA now. You should just mean the 12z nam, 6z gfs was snowlover's dream material. Where are you located now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If the 84hr NAM is right in showing no snow, I don't want to hear too much crap about the 84hr NAM runs later this winter that will show 12-18" from a clipper Dang hippokrits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Doesn't matter, since it'll all be washed away come Monday morning. Not a chance if we were to get 3+ snow, and then ice on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET Where the love is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I dare someone to tell DT that the NAM has less precip.... EDIT: Andy is gonna get it. ONLY TO 84 HRS .. come on guys think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Dang hippokritsWhatever model shows the least snow is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That's pretty tame for DT. Andy got off easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Whatever model shows the least snow is right Your words are hurtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If the 84hr NAM is right in showing no snow, I don't want to hear too much crap about the 84hr NAM runs later this winter that will show 12-18" from a clipper If the 06z NAM is right and the clouds cough dust on us, then I'll be riding the 84-hr NAM this winter like a fat guy riding a little moped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Not a chance if we were to get 3+ snow, and then ice on top of it. MN disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Ive panicked before over a bad NAM run...boxing day storm it was the first to show the crap solution...my guess is this run of the nam at 84 hrs for a storm 3 days out is 100% right. I'm out guys...gotta go admire my new haircut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 ...gotta go admire my new haircut Landing strip? ETA: RR hijacked my account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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