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December Banter Thread


H2O

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i don't think it's a stretch to say that CAD is generally stronger than modeled.  It's one thing this area can often rely on.

It's kind of a mesoscale feature. The globals don't seem to pick up on it super well at range though there has been a nice CAD kink for a few days.  Main concern here is how long it can hold as an easterly flow tries to take over. 

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It's kind of a mesoscale feature. The globals don't seem to pick up on it super well at range though there has been a nice CAD kink for a few days.  Main concern here is how long it can hold as an easterly flow tries to take over. 

 

Yeah...the CAD signature can be apparent, but the details aren't nailed very well.  I think this is where local knowledge plays a big part.  You're right, of course, in that easterly flow can bust it up pretty good.

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SET CONDITION:  ALPO  CATEGORY 5!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

**ALERT *** 12z WED GFS SEEING THE ARCTIC AIR.. COMES IN COLDER.. SNOW FOR DCA BWI / NORTHERN VA ENDS AS INCE

RIC METRO MUCH COLDER .. ICE FOR 12 HRS..

SW VA /PIEDMONT CATEGORY 4-5 ICE STORM THREAT INCREASING ...

MORE ICE FOR N CENTRAL NC 

Given how the operational GFS model is worshiped as a god by and NWS and TV stations -- which is quite unfortunate-- the significant shift towards a colder overall solution by the 12Z WED operational GFS at 1115 AM Wednesday morning IS going to cause significant widespread changes later on this afternoon and evening from TV NWS and TWC --(the weather channel). 

Based on this 12z wed GFS run ...the event BEGINS AS SNOW over northern half of the entire Shenandoah Valley into Northwest Virginia including Washington, DC and Baltimore . It could be significant snow OR just a few inches. Right now most of the TV stations Washington and Baltimore calling for either sleet going to rain or just plain old rain. I have insisted that such a forecast was bogus and the trend clearly is supporting my perspective. From Charlottesville over to Staunton north up to Winchester into Western Maryland and over towards Washington, DC Hagerstown Frederick and Baltimore.. and up to the Pennsylvania Maryland border this event will begin as snow and will likely stay snow for several hours on Sunday. 

It WILL change over the ice Sunday evening and it will stay ice until the event finishes. This means you should prepare for at least a few inches of snow and significant ice on top of that.

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