ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 9:12 PM, leesburg 04 said: This is still my favorite snow map of all time....I guess it should make RR giggle image.jpg Lol it does, if only i was so blessed. The scary part is you have kept this image for 8 months, that worries me more than my 50% privates posting style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 9:12 PM, leesburg 04 said: This is still my favorite snow map of all time....I guess it should make RR giggle image.jpg On 12/5/2013 at 9:13 PM, Ian said: So basically i am the only one man enough to say my thoughts, while you 2 are closet hornballs of the worst kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 9:53 PM, snow. said: good run...cold and wet Must have just been with Leesburg04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 9:25 PM, Aviationdave said: Well played Don. I'll probably be to busy to use my phone. Besides that my IPhone is crap and the battery dies so quickly, so yall have to do with out me this storm Get the mophie, it is the greatest invention since sliced bread for the Iphone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 How much ice with our snow???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That second wave on the 18z GFS is boss, we could be end for a nice period of wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 8:47 PM, UVVmet84 said: I guess in the end you have that point, and I have mine about the simple necessity of making an actual forecast. I mean for some ice is the one that has the predominant impact in our area. However, risk/reward factor isnt as big for CWG. Tv stations will have weather regardless, so they have more leeway to put something out there. This is ridiculous. By establishing a general risk and the most probabilistic outcomes, you are going to prepare more appropriately than if you just had 1 deterministic forecast that constantly alters day-to-day. The NWS has long established this method of forecasting for a reason. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Ah, GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:16 PM, HM said: This is ridiculous. By establishing a general risk and the most probabilistic outcomes, you are going to prepare more appropriately than if you just had 1 deterministic forecast that constantly alters day-to-day. The NWS has long established this method of forecasting for a reason. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 We might have more winter in the next week than we've had in the last 35 months. Or more of what we saw in that 35 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:16 PM, HM said: This is ridiculous. By establishing a general risk and the most probabilistic outcomes, you are going to prepare more appropriately than if you just had 1 deterministic forecast that constantly alters day-to-day. The NWS has long established this method of forecasting for a reason. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem HM I think you have me misunderstood. I thinl probabilities are good. However, at a range like 48 hours an appropriate range does not harm your method or reputation. I like CWG's methodology as I said, I just think the public, as unfortunate as it is, wants to know the real straightforward details. We live in an immediate gratification era of society, therefore disallowing any true patience cor probabilties when someone is just trying to catch the forecast before work. Chaos dominates unfortunately. Scenarios being laid out and choosing one you favor works as well. My apologies for the misunderstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:26 PM, Ian said: We might have more winter in the next week than we've had in the last 35 months. Or more of what we saw in that 35 months. I sense the cold and dryness coming out, it has been a big waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NWS used the cleon hashtag https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/408517559579729920 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:38 PM, Ian said: NWS used the cleon hashtag https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/408517559579729920 Kinda silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:22 PM, MN Transplant said: Ah, GFS. Even cutting that in half or 2/3 would be a nice event (considering our recent winters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:38 PM, Ian said: NWS used the cleon hashtag https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/408517559579729920 No turning back. The WC snowstorm names are perfect for the twitter/digital age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:23 PM, mitchnick said: had some din-din and came back to the trailing wave snow sweet! I thought in nursing homes dinner is served at 3?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:38 PM, Ian said: NWS used the cleon hashtag https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/408517559579729920 Uhoh...someone's getting a nastygram from the bosses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:22 PM, MN Transplant said: Ah, GFS. USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_135.gif It's the new NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:43 PM, ravensrule said: I thought in nursing homes dinner is served at 3?. creamed corn makes him sleepy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:43 PM, ravensrule said: I thought in nursing homes dinner is served at 3?. I wouldn't know but apparently you do come on man, find somebody younger or lose the Oedipus thingy sure they got money, but the lint filled baggy stockings are just not worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:52 PM, mitchnick said: I wouldn't know but apparently you do come on man, find somebody younger or lose the Oedipus thingy sure they got money, but the lint filled baggy stockings are just not worth it Im just funning with you because you are the oldest regular poster. If it bothers you let me know and i will stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:54 PM, ravensrule said: Im just funning with you because you are the oldest regular poster. If it bothers you let me know and i will stop. of course not I've just been in enough nursing homes over the years in my business and have seen a few things I wish I hadn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The 18Z GFS rarely fails to satisfy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 11:04 PM, PhineasC said: The 18Z GFS rarely fails to satisfy. It's become an important part of the day lately. The smart play now is to be fast asleep once the 0z suite initializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 10:59 PM, mitchnick said: of course not I've just been in enough nursing homes over the years in my business and have seen a few things I wish I hadn't They are nasty places, as a kid i used to go with my mother all the time to visit people who had no one visiting them and it was so sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Wxsynopsis says 8-12. Ian u got a shot at that sammich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 11:09 PM, Bob Chill said: It's become an important part of the day lately. The smart play now is to be fast asleep once the 0z suite initializes. Done and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 On 12/5/2013 at 11:24 PM, DCAlexandria said: Wxsynopsis says 8-12. Ian u got a shot at that sammichWoohooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Wxsynopsis is the BB of FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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