Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro still 1-3 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z Euro clown maps painting 4-6" for Springfield and western CT. by Saturday morning. Narrow band of 2-4" east of that. 0 for Boston and eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Seems like a good 2" or so for ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sounds good then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Still may be fighting a warm tongue aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Seems like a good 2" or so for ORH. I think BOS would even get a nice little burst around 09z...2m temp is down near freezing by 06z. So as soon as that warm layer gets eroded, could be a window there to get an inch or so. Obviously the timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looks like about 2" up here...maybe a little more in the higher terrain. We'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looks like about 2" up here...maybe a little more in the higher terrain. We'll take it. Anything out of the system I'll consider a bonus. Wasn't expecting anything a few days ago, so even an inch or two would be nice for the weekend holiday spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sounds like its white to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think BOS would even get a nice little burst around 09z...2m temp is down near freezing by 06z. So as soon as that warm layer gets eroded, could be a window there to get an inch or so. Obviously the timing is everything. Verbatim prob close to an inch maybe...like C-1" or something. The GFS had a burst of SN coming from a s/w flying NE. Looked weird, but it was a nice burst as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Anything out of the system I'll consider a bonus. Wasn't expecting anything a few days ago, so even an inch or two would be nice for the weekend holiday spirit. yeah, we're gegti g our tree this weekend. Sure beats last year's stroll through the mud andcold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Nice looking radar on the screens here at cid. A ways east of here, for the on time win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Due to low level W to NW flow and CAA, this event favors the western slopes of the Berkshires and Taconics for more accumulation. My location tends to do relatively well with these anafrontal wave type deals where cold advects in from the W and NW in the low levels as the event is in progress. Of course, this won't help matters much if there's a stubborn warm tongue aloft. In that case, it will be a pellet fest IMBY. Regardless, it's pretty rare to get an extended period of sleet or freezing rain with a NW flow near the surface around here. That would be an interesting meteorological feat in its own right, even though I'm rooting for snow. Early call is 2-4" for the west slope above about 1K. Who knows, if we don't waste too much QPF as sleet, maybe someone near the crest could pull off 5"? Amounts will taper pretty quickly once you get onto the east slope below 1K. It doesn't look like much in the Pioneer Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think we'll all take 1-2 spot 3's and be happy. White weekend with more coming Sun nite and Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think we'll all take 1-2 spot 3's and be happy. White weekend with more coming Sun nite and Monday dont look at the weenie underground snow maps, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'd pretty much ride the ECM verbatim at this point...same with the Monday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 dont look at the weenie underground snow maps, LOLHow much they got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Due to low level W to NW flow and CAA, this event favors the western slopes of the Berkshires and Taconics for more accumulation. My location tends to do relatively well with these anafrontal wave type deals where cold advects in from the W and NW in the low levels as the event is in progress. Of course, this won't help matters much if there's a stubborn warm tongue aloft. In that case, it will be a pellet fest IMBY. Regardless, it's pretty rare to get an extended period of sleet or freezing rain with a NW flow near the surface around here. That would be an interesting meteorological feat in its own right, even though I'm rooting for snow. Early call is 2-4" for the west slope above about 1K. Who knows, if we don't waste too much QPF as sleet, maybe someone near the crest could pull off 5"? Amounts will taper pretty quickly once you get onto the east slope below 1K. It doesn't look like much in the Pioneer Valley. nice insight A west Slope special for Sun nite. I hope Pittsfield to Lenox gets pounded and has nice drifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 How much they got? They completely weenie out and give a high end advisory to even low end warning (in Berkshires and Monads) for a big chunk of SNE. Typical wunderground weenie maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'd pretty much ride the ECM verbatim at this point...same with the Monday system. it's tempting. i'm not there yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 They completely weenie out and give a high end advisory to even low end warning (in Berkshires and Monads) for a big chunk of SNE. Typical wunderground weenie maps. yea very much a weenie map, no chance at them verifying I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 nice insight A west Slope special for Sun nite. I hope Pittsfield to Lenox gets pounded and has nice drifts I was referring to the event tomorrow night. If Euro maps are right, I get a nice 6-8" event, but they're likely overdone. I'll take half that and run with it. I don't usually do well with SWFEs on the other hand, as I will get skunked by shadowing on low level easterly flow and rapid warming in the low levels and mid levels. The west slope does well with CAA, but not with WAA. East slope does well with WAA snows. As such, I'm not expecting much from the Sunday night, Monday event. Maybe 1-2" then a flip to a light mix. It looks rather skimpy QPF wise on the Euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 FWIW, 18z NAM definitely coming in a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 FWIW, 18z NAM definitely coming in a bit colder. SREFs are jumping on board even down to the pike region...your area looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Due to low level W to NW flow and CAA, this event favors the western slopes of the Berkshires and Taconics for more accumulation. My location tends to do relatively well with these anafrontal wave type deals where cold advects in from the W and NW in the low levels as the event is in progress. Of course, this won't help matters much if there's a stubborn warm tongue aloft. In that case, it will be a pellet fest IMBY. Regardless, it's pretty rare to get an extended period of sleet or freezing rain with a NW flow near the surface around here. That would be an interesting meteorological feat in its own right, even though I'm rooting for snow. Early call is 2-4" for the west slope above about 1K. Who knows, if we don't waste too much QPF as sleet, maybe someone near the crest could pull off 5"? Amounts will taper pretty quickly once you get onto the east slope below 1K. It doesn't look like much in the Pioneer Valley. agree with you there, Mitch. not that it played out to well in the last event, but a similar setup and sentiment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Wxmanmitch i MEANT to say fri nite, just as you pointed out. Mon am has that classic wnw-ese 850 0c swfe temp from s berks to cape, but at this stage , I'd rather be lookin good for first event like u Are. Nam does look colder wrt fri nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 18z NAM with over .6" at BOS, in cooler column-ed run! BOS 36049989775 01716 183508 49019800 42015955333 02121 173512 44009699 That's all of +1C at 980mb at 36 hours; otherwise, all other levels at or below freezing in a fairly potent thump of QPF right there... Then lingers for another 6 hours of lighter activity, still frozen. Unless there is some layer above the 800mb, "as is" this run is a solid upper end winter weather advisory event -- also, have to consider impact to ill-prepared civility. Ill-prepared may be a bit strong for this part of the country, but meaning ... the first real snow fall of the season -- if so -- it couldn't hurt to goose awareness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Wxmanmitch i MEANT to say fri nite, just as you pointed out. Mon am has that classic wnw-ese 850 0c swfe temp from s berks to cape, but at this stage , I'd rather be lookin good for first event like u Are. Nam does look colder wrt fri nite any juice with it (on phone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 FWIW, 18z NAM definitely coming in a bit colder. That model is so predictable..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That model is so predictable..lol.It's like Lucy setting up the football for Charlie Brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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