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December 6-7: Rainy Frontal Passage or a Wintry Wave?


moneypitmike

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Seems like a good 2" or so for ORH.

 

 

I think BOS would even get a nice little burst around 09z...2m temp is down near freezing by 06z. So as soon as that warm layer gets eroded, could be a window there to get an inch or so. Obviously the timing is everything.

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Looks like about 2" up here...maybe a little more in the higher terrain. We'll take it.

 

Anything out of the system I'll consider a bonus. Wasn't expecting anything a few days ago, so even an inch or two would be nice for the weekend holiday spirit.

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I think BOS would even get a nice little burst around 09z...2m temp is down near freezing by 06z. So as soon as that warm layer gets eroded, could be a window there to get an inch or so. Obviously the timing is everything.

 

Verbatim prob close to an inch maybe...like C-1" or something. The GFS had a burst of SN coming from a s/w flying NE. Looked weird, but it was a nice burst as modeled.

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Due to low level W to NW flow and CAA, this event favors the western slopes of the Berkshires and Taconics for more accumulation. My location tends to do relatively well with these anafrontal wave type deals where cold advects in from the W and NW in the low levels as the event is in progress.

 

Of course, this won't help matters much if there's a stubborn warm tongue aloft. In that case, it will be a pellet fest IMBY. Regardless, it's pretty rare to get an extended period of sleet or freezing rain with a NW flow near the surface around here. That would be an interesting meteorological feat in its own right, even though I'm rooting for snow.

 

Early call is 2-4" for the west slope above about 1K. Who knows, if we don't waste too much QPF as sleet, maybe someone near the crest could pull off 5"? Amounts will taper pretty quickly once you get onto the east slope below 1K. It doesn't look like much in the Pioneer Valley.

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Due to low level W to NW flow and CAA, this event favors the western slopes of the Berkshires and Taconics for more accumulation. My location tends to do relatively well with these anafrontal wave type deals where cold advects in from the W and NW in the low levels as the event is in progress.

 

Of course, this won't help matters much if there's a stubborn warm tongue aloft. In that case, it will be a pellet fest IMBY. Regardless, it's pretty rare to get an extended period of sleet or freezing rain with a NW flow near the surface around here. That would be an interesting meteorological feat in its own right, even though I'm rooting for snow.

 

Early call is 2-4" for the west slope above about 1K. Who knows, if we don't waste too much QPF as sleet, maybe someone near the crest could pull off 5"? Amounts will taper pretty quickly once you get onto the east slope below 1K. It doesn't look like much in the Pioneer Valley.

nice insight

 

A west Slope special for Sun nite. I hope Pittsfield to Lenox gets pounded and has nice drifts

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nice insight

 

A west Slope special for Sun nite. I hope Pittsfield to Lenox gets pounded and has nice drifts

 

I was referring to the event tomorrow night. If Euro maps are right, I get a nice 6-8" event, but they're likely overdone. I'll take half that and run with it.

 

I don't usually do well with SWFEs on the other hand, as I will get skunked by shadowing on low level easterly flow and rapid warming in the low levels and mid levels. The west slope does well with CAA, but not with WAA. East slope does well with WAA snows.

 

As such, I'm not expecting much from the Sunday night, Monday event. Maybe 1-2" then a flip to a light mix. It looks rather skimpy QPF wise on the Euro too.

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Due to low level W to NW flow and CAA, this event favors the western slopes of the Berkshires and Taconics for more accumulation. My location tends to do relatively well with these anafrontal wave type deals where cold advects in from the W and NW in the low levels as the event is in progress.

 

Of course, this won't help matters much if there's a stubborn warm tongue aloft. In that case, it will be a pellet fest IMBY. Regardless, it's pretty rare to get an extended period of sleet or freezing rain with a NW flow near the surface around here. That would be an interesting meteorological feat in its own right, even though I'm rooting for snow.

 

Early call is 2-4" for the west slope above about 1K. Who knows, if we don't waste too much QPF as sleet, maybe someone near the crest could pull off 5"? Amounts will taper pretty quickly once you get onto the east slope below 1K. It doesn't look like much in the Pioneer Valley.

agree with you there, Mitch. not that it played out to well in the last event, but a similar setup and sentiment.

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18z NAM with over .6" at BOS, in cooler column-ed run!

 

BOS

36049989775 01716 183508 49019800 

42015955333 02121 173512 44009699

 

That's all of +1C at 980mb at 36 hours; otherwise, all other levels at or below freezing in a fairly potent thump of QPF right there...  Then lingers for another 6 hours of lighter activity, still frozen.

 

Unless there is some layer above the 800mb, "as is" this run is a solid upper end winter weather advisory event  -- also, have to consider impact to ill-prepared civility.  Ill-prepared may be a bit strong for this part of the country, but meaning ... the first real snow fall of the season -- if so -- it couldn't hurt to goose awareness.  

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