Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z nam continues to be rather slow in allowing the 8h-7h level to cool off. there'd basically be a sleet "storm" in a narrow corridor near the Pike...with some snows north of there...and basically just rain ending as flurries south and east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Glad to have the euro on board for an inch or so in this area. But seems kind of on its own which doesn't inspire much confidence overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 HPC progged snowfall looks goof through Sat. high probs 1"+ for all of SNE except Cape Cod, MA. Pretty good probs for 2"+ most of the region. An over 10% for 4" or more up here. We'll have to see how this looks after the afternoon runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z nam continues to be rather slow in allowing the 8h-7h level to cool off. there'd basically be a sleet "storm" in a narrow corridor near the Pike...with some snows north of there...and basically just rain ending as flurries south and east of there. During that last big QPF storm where we ended up pouring rain at 34F, we ended up going rain to sleet and then finally snow on the backside. It was very odd to go from rain to sleet in CAA, but maybe that's going to be a trend this year with pretty solid lower level cold lurking to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 HPC progged snowfall looks goof through Sat. high probs 1"+ for all of SNE except Cape Cod, MA. Pretty good probs for 2"+ most of the region. An over 10% for 4" or more up here. We'll have to see how this looks after the afternoon runs. The HPC probs look too bullish to me. Even if you take the Euro hook, line, and sinker, they are still surprisingly high...especially the southern half of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Should be fun above 1,000ft. Even the SREFs sort of show this. I'm at 225', but can be at 1600' if I drive west. Might have to do a snow chase tomorrow night. 12Z NAM is much more juicy up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 During that last big QPF storm where we ended up pouring rain at 34F, we ended up going rain to sleet and then finally snow on the backside. It was very odd to go from rain to sleet in CAA, but maybe that's going to be a trend this year with pretty solid lower level cold lurking to the north. yeah. it'll be something to watch as long as there's strong ridging anchored offshore the SE, promoting perpetual SW flow. i don't know how long into the season it lasts, but for this event, it's certainly present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 C-1 seems like a reasonable and responsible guess. A lot of on air mets seem to think nothing for this area, and are keeping accums way up in Worcester county and southern new hampshire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm at 225', but can be at 1600' if I drive west. Might have to do a snow chase tomorrow night. 12Z NAM is much more juicy up this way. There is consensus for roughly .25 - .4 liquid equivalent for the capital region. I think you need about 600 feet or greater to have much confidence in a few inches of snow. Like you say, the valleys might get hung up at 33 or 34F during the heaviest precip. Knox up at 1500ft could be 28F and moderate snow while downtown Albany has 34F and a wet snow that struggles to whiten the mulch. I think the lower elevations eventually accumulate, but later in the game. I'm at about 300ft. Hopefully we pick up at least an inch or two tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Have been expecting a non-event from this system for my area as far as froz. precip. goes. ...Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The 12z NAM would suggest apprx. half a foot of snow for the escarpment west of Albany, the northern Taconics, and the far NW Berks. And then maybe 2-4 NW of a line from Hudson, NY to Greenfield, Ma... including lower elevations. Looks like a 3-6 hour burst of precip. The NAM has been gradually reducing QPF on the cold side as we get closer (getting more in line with reality), but this run is suspiciously wet... more in line with some of the wetter SREF members. The 12z prog develops precip earlier on Fri, like the GFS, and even strengthens the surface reflection slightly as it moves rapidly from VA to south of the Cape late Friday. I think it's 30 - 50% too wet and a little too warm. Thicknesses are really high on all the guidance, but it still looks like lower levels should be able to cool enough for snow along the NW periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I would want to be over in Rick and Pete's area for this one, Further west the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 RGEM looks half decent..a little colder than the NAM. Prob a good 3-4 hour burst to end it for interior...esp along and N of pike. But it even finishes BOS with a couple hours of steady snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The 12z NAM would suggest apprx. half a foot of snow for the escarpment west of Albany, the northern Taconics, and the far NW Berks. And then maybe 2-4 NW of a line from Hudson, NY to Greenfield, Ma... including lower elevations. Looks like a 3-6 hour burst of precip. The NAM has been gradually reducing QPF on the cold side as we get closer (getting more in line with reality), but this run is suspiciously wet... more in line with some of the wetter SREF members. The 12z prop develops precip earlier on Fri, like the GFS, and even strengthens the surface reflection slightly as it moves rapidly from VA to south of the Cape late Friday. I think it's 30 - 50% too wet and a little too warm. Thicknesses are really high on all the guidance, but it still looks like lower levels should be able to cool enough for snow along the NW periphery. Let's see what the other models show. Rates from 0-3Z could overcome marginal temps. Tomorrow will be a temp and dewpoint tracking day. NAM prob is too wet, but one can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The RGEM snowfall algorithms show 2-4" of snow in the Berks and S Greens with a C-2" elsewhere from SE to NW. Looks a little drier than the NAM but similar temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I would want to be over in Rick and Pete's area for this one, Further west the better Rick's area and the Helderberg Escarpment would be the best spot, IMO. Those 1000-2000ft elevations immediately west of ALB (the elevation goes up over 700ft in less than a half-mile at one point)....out towards the I-88 corridor in the high terrain between ALB-BGM. I could see a spot 6" amount there while ALB struggles to 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Rick's area and the Helderberg Escarpment would be the best spot, IMO. Those 1000-2000ft elevations immediately west of ALB (the elevation goes up over 700ft in less than a half-mile at one point)....out towards the I-88 corridor in the high terrain between ALB-BGM. I could see a spot 6" amount there while ALB struggles to 1-2". Yeah, Thats a good area in this type of system, I think pete scores in the berks as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 RGEM total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The HPC probs look too bullish to me. Even if you take the Euro hook, line, and sinker, they are still surprisingly high...especially the southern half of SNE. In SNE I'd trust you over them for sure. I think 4" up here would be a huge win. I'd like 2. I wonder what is driving those probs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I would want to be over in Rick and Pete's area for this one, Further west the better i'll be in Great Barrington Friday night how do you think you will do Monday, whilst I'm recovering from my jet lag in London? Your snowcover still there today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z GFS is noticeably wetter on the NW flank, owing to a slightly stronger wave. Looks a little warmer too, but maybe only slightly. Will have to look at model thermal profiles. Looks basically similar to other guidance. Best chance for snow along a small stripe of far NW SNE, with rain ending as sleet or snow almost everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I am thinking 0.5" -1.0" in my neck of the woods... meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS had a burst of SN Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 i'll be in Great Barrington Friday night how do you think you will do Monday, whilst I'm recovering from my jet lag in London? Your snowcover still there today? Not much remaining, I think monday will be a 3-6" type deal for here or slightly better if the Euro is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS had a burst of SN Sat morning. I would sneak some out here on the 12z run, It had looked like very minimal up until this run here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Just eye-balling the NAM's FRH grid point for BOS, and employing a-priori ; those kind of temperature layering usually results in a pounding sleet. As QPF initially ramps upward, the T1 layer tumbles from +8C, to just +1C, while the mid layer goes to 0C, and the upper most layer, +2C. Now... +2C is not normally enough to get parachutes to completely turn, but ... since the next time slot shows that the upper layer warms all the way to +4C (while keeping the middle layer at 0C, and the lower level is in the process of going to 0C), that flags a very tall, deep column underneath a blow torch aloft. Keeping in mind, that is over BOS.... Same method at ALB offers a better snow signal -- in fact, almost purely so after a brief period of very early p-type consternation. A spatial sort-of differential between ALB and BOS, would yield sleet/snow going to snow for FIT to N CT...and of course more snow going west. Once you get out toward ALB, I doubt there is a warm layer above 800mb substantial enough to fiddle with p-type, but just using the FRH is not as good as also looking at sounding curves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I am thinking 0.5" -1.0" in my neck of the woods... meh That means I'll be around C-0.5. I imagine it'll be hard to get anything on bare earth/roads after a day of rain, unless it freezes right quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 my bad wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 I am thinking 0.5" -1.0" in my neck of the woods... meh I'm guessing up to an inch or so at the pit as well. Tough setup for anything more than meh. at airport now with a balmy 16*. Heading to the tropics if Philly now. Flying into bdl at about 10:00 tomorrow evening. Hopefully into a bunch if flakes. 37.7 back at the pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro continues to look the best of all guidance on this for SNE folks. Monads over to GC might get 3-4" on the Euro...bit it is still bringing probably an inch or better even to around BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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