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December 6-7: Rainy Frontal Passage or a Wintry Wave?


moneypitmike

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Euro coming in bullish again. Steady as a rock...won't budge despite other guidance shifting around. Euro is becoming juicier, but its staying cold. If that keeps up, then someone could get advisory snows.

 

I'm still skeptical overall with this one, but we are getting close enough that its becoming easier to believe a couple inches for the interior...esp ORH hills to Monads and GC where the mid-levels cool and low level tmeps aren't forecasted to be much ofan issue.

 

We'll see what she does tomorrow.

Looks like the Euro is the most bullish model right now. I think that whole final wave is snow up here on it with 0.25" QPF. The 6z NAM is pretty warm for SNE...the GFS looks OK down there, but the dry air has already worked its way in here before the precip arrives. EC ens look similar to the op. SREFs still favor the Berks and Monads.
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Euro is torched aboive 850. at 06z 700mb temps are still 0C from SE MA to just south of HFD. That means there might be a sneaky warm layer somewhere.

 

Either that or it's close to isothermal. That may be the case, I haven't had time to dig too deep. Maybe other can if they have soundings.

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By this time tomorrow the front should be coming thru as we transition to our favorite season of the year by tomorrow night..and we wake up Saturday hopefully to shoveling, sledding, and trucks salting..and await another storm Sunday night and Monday

 

I do think many of us with have at least a brief taste of winter Sat morning.

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Either that or it's close to isothermal. That may be the case, I haven't had time to dig too deep. Maybe other can if they have soundings.

 

 

GFS soundings weren't obscene with the warm tongue leaving a pretty narrow area of sleet...right near the 850mb 0C isotherm. Not sure on the Euro since I cannot get sounding from them. But I do think we can finish with 2-4 hour burst at the end if the Euro is close to correct.

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GFS soundings weren't obscene with the warm tongue leaving a pretty narrow area of sleet...right near the 850mb 0C isotherm. Not sure on the Euro since I cannot get sounding from them. But I do think we can finish with 2-4 hour burst at the end if the Euro is close to correct.

 

Hopefully the euro continues with the juicier QPF. It seems to be the most bullish.

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To me the euro is probably better at handling the lower cold push...like from 925mb on below. That's where I was thinking IP is possible for a time...not like hours, but could be for a 360 min or so period?

 

I'm still curious why BOX has zr/rn for here on Friday.  They also include zr with the snow/ip for Friday night.  Is there any inidcation that that would happen?  I see wet and frozen--not freezing.

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I'm still curious why BOX has zr/rn for here on Friday.  They also include zr with the snow/ip for Friday night.  Is there any inidcation that that would happen?  I see wet and frozen--not freezing.

 

It's possible brief ZR for you as the cold comes in. Seems to me more some sleet and than snow..maybe 2..iso 3 for your area?

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I saw that too. 2-4" seems high to me. Channel 13 is going for D-1". Around an inch seems reasonable to me. These change to snow scenarios with a cooling boundary layer, especially with such fast flow.
 

6z gfs looks good for 1 to 3 Albanys Afd is going for 2 to 4 for just about everyone and are more bullish

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This could be a decent hit from BGM to nrn Berks and VT. To me, it seems like the cold push south slows a tiny bit as the wave forms, enhancing snow in those regions. It will push south, just perhaps a bit more slowly during this time.

I agree.  Seems like a bit of a thread the needle, especially in the valleys.  Slightly stronger wave might slow the cooling at the surface enough to have accumulation issues.  Slightly weaker wave and cold advection shuts of precip to quickly.  Should be interesting to watch.  

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I agree.  Seems like a bit of a thread the needle, especially in the valleys.  Slightly stronger wave might slow the cooling at the surface enough to have accumulation issues.  Slightly weaker wave and cold advection shuts of precip to quickly.  Should be interesting to watch.  

 

Should be fun above 1,000ft. Even the SREFs sort of show this.

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