CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro You're a man of few words this morning, Scott..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro coming in bullish again. Steady as a rock...won't budge despite other guidance shifting around. Euro is becoming juicier, but its staying cold. If that keeps up, then someone could get advisory snows. I'm still skeptical overall with this one, but we are getting close enough that its becoming easier to believe a couple inches for the interior...esp ORH hills to Monads and GC where the mid-levels cool and low level tmeps aren't forecasted to be much ofan issue. We'll see what she does tomorrow. Looks like the Euro is the most bullish model right now. I think that whole final wave is snow up here on it with 0.25" QPF. The 6z NAM is pretty warm for SNE...the GFS looks OK down there, but the dry air has already worked its way in here before the precip arrives. EC ens look similar to the op. SREFs still favor the Berks and Monads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Is this still looking like all rain for those on the coast (Boston)? It doesn't even look like we get below freezing until Saturday. I think we end as brief period of snow. Maybe a coating if we're lucky. I'm not waiting up Friday night...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 For now..we think 1-3 is best estimate for interior folks..If Euro and it ens are correct..and this close in tough to think they aren't..it's a few inches right to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 one of those weird deals where majority of precip falls as sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 For now I still find it hard to see more than an inch or two on the euro. It's still mild aloft above 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 one of those weird deals where majority of precip falls as sleet? This may have some decent IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro is torched aboive 850. at 06z 700mb temps are still 0C from SE MA to just south of HFD. That means there might be a sneaky warm layer somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 For now I still find it hard to see more than an inch or two on the euro. It's still mild aloft above 850. Yeah there's a mild tongue on everything. Euro soundings have it up too about 7h. Meanwhile cools off nicely around 925. Ping ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro is torched aboive 850. at 06z 700mb temps are still 0C from SE MA to just south of HFD. That means there might be a sneaky warm layer somewhere. Either that or it's close to isothermal. That may be the case, I haven't had time to dig too deep. Maybe other can if they have soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Nothing wrong with an inch or 2 of sleet. Better than 1-2 of powder IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Nothing wrong with an inch or 2 of sleet. Better than 1-2 of powder IMO Nothing supports an inch or two of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Nothing supports an inch or two of sleet. By this time tomorrow the front should be coming thru as we transition to our favorite season of the year by tomorrow night..and we wake up Saturday hopefully to shoveling, sledding, and trucks salting..and await another storm Sunday night and Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 By this time tomorrow the front should be coming thru as we transition to our favorite season of the year by tomorrow night..and we wake up Saturday hopefully to shoveling, sledding, and trucks salting..and await another storm Sunday night and Monday I do think many of us with have at least a brief taste of winter Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 not bad probabilities for an inch or two http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=24&ptype=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Is this still looking like all rain for those on the coast (Boston)? It doesn't even look like we get below freezing until Saturday. I think we end as brief period of snow. Maybe a coating if we're lucky. I'm not waiting up Friday night...lol. seems reasonable, coating to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 seems reasonable, coating to 1" Yeah maybe a coating to an inch in spots with lower elevations..probably a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Either that or it's close to isothermal. That may be the case, I haven't had time to dig too deep. Maybe other can if they have soundings. GFS soundings weren't obscene with the warm tongue leaving a pretty narrow area of sleet...right near the 850mb 0C isotherm. Not sure on the Euro since I cannot get sounding from them. But I do think we can finish with 2-4 hour burst at the end if the Euro is close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS soundings weren't obscene with the warm tongue leaving a pretty narrow area of sleet...right near the 850mb 0C isotherm. Not sure on the Euro since I cannot get sounding from them. But I do think we can finish with 2-4 hour burst at the end if the Euro is close to correct. Hopefully the euro continues with the juicier QPF. It seems to be the most bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 To me the euro is probably better at handling the lower cold push...like from 925mb on below. That's where I was thinking IP is possible for a time...not like hours, but could be for a 30-60 min or so period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The internal snow algorithms are pretty bullish out west and by BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Nothing wrong with an inch or 2 of sleet. Better than 1-2 of powder IMO Good luck with those sleet ratios....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 To me the euro is probably better at handling the lower cold push...like from 925mb on below. That's where I was thinking IP is possible for a time...not like hours, but could be for a 360 min or so period? I'm still curious why BOX has zr/rn for here on Friday. They also include zr with the snow/ip for Friday night. Is there any inidcation that that would happen? I see wet and frozen--not freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm still curious why BOX has zr/rn for here on Friday. They also include zr with the snow/ip for Friday night. Is there any inidcation that that would happen? I see wet and frozen--not freezing. It's possible brief ZR for you as the cold comes in. Seems to me more some sleet and than snow..maybe 2..iso 3 for your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This could be a decent hit from BGM to nrn Berks and VT. To me, it seems like the cold push south slows a tiny bit as the wave forms, enhancing snow in those regions. It will push south, just perhaps a bit more slowly during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I saw that too. 2-4" seems high to me. Channel 13 is going for D-1". Around an inch seems reasonable to me. These change to snow scenarios with a cooling boundary layer, especially with such fast flow. 6z gfs looks good for 1 to 3 Albanys Afd is going for 2 to 4 for just about everyone and are more bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This could be a decent hit from BGM to nrn Berks and VT. To me, it seems like the cold push south slows a tiny bit as the wave forms, enhancing snow in those regions. It will push south, just perhaps a bit more slowly during this time. I agree. Seems like a bit of a thread the needle, especially in the valleys. Slightly stronger wave might slow the cooling at the surface enough to have accumulation issues. Slightly weaker wave and cold advection shuts of precip to quickly. Should be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z NAM in thru 24. SE Ridge looks to be a bit stronger and shortwave looks a bit stronger. Could be an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I agree. Seems like a bit of a thread the needle, especially in the valleys. Slightly stronger wave might slow the cooling at the surface enough to have accumulation issues. Slightly weaker wave and cold advection shuts of precip to quickly. Should be interesting to watch. Should be fun above 1,000ft. Even the SREFs sort of show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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