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December 6-7: Rainy Frontal Passage or a Wintry Wave?


moneypitmike

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Bold face lie, just stop. You should be suspended

 

I agree, that level of trolling is one step too far.  

 

Also, both systems look like mostly rain for me with some flakes mixed in.  Doesn't look like any real accumulation.  :(

 

 Good luck to everyone else!

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Not this time, sorry .

Haven't looked, sig upslope post frontal?Arctic invasion?

Honestly I haven't looked much beyond Tuesday, but I did notice a nice more westerly flow as the arctic air comes in from the Midwest. It's not the classic NW flow but that might lack moisture, whereas the westerly flow may bring some Great Lakes moisture into the flow for upslope to act on.

Best situations can be if you get into a lake effect streamer from Lake Ontario, and then slam that into the Spine. Killington region usually does well in those situations where up here it's a little harder with the High Peaks in NY in the way sometimes.

We had a good one on Mansfield during the early morning of April 2nd...with that unseasonably cold air creating lake effect streamers that hit Mansfield and dropped almost 10" in like 5 hours and then dissipated. It was ripping 2-3"/hr in the base area from like 4-7am, and we had a 12" 24-hr total out of a forecast for flurries.

I am looking forward to those -20s at H85...I've been digging the cold so far this year. Feels like a real start to winter.

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Euro coming in bullish again. Steady as a rock...won't budge despite other guidance shifting around. Euro is becoming juicier, but its staying cold. If that keeps up, then someone could get advisory snows.

 

I'm still skeptical overall with this one, but we are getting close enough that its becoming easier to believe a couple inches for the interior...esp ORH hills to Monads and GC where the mid-levels cool and low level tmeps aren't forecasted to be much ofan issue.

 

We'll see what she does tomorrow.

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BOX's AFD is pretty meh with regard to snow accumulations  While they have a highlight in the AFD that "some accumulating snow possible Friday night", they go on to limit that accumulaiton to "a few spots may see an inch or so".

 

I'm not sure where they're pulling the zr into the zone for out here.  Weird.

 

Friday: Rain likely in the morning...then rain and freezing rain likely in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Friday Night: Snow...sleet...rain and freezing rain likely. Cooler with lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

 

33.3/29 at the PIT

 

19/13 here at CID, winds at 28mph, gusting to 36mph.  I'll see what I can take east with me this afternong when I fly to PHL.

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6z gfs looks good for 1 to 3  Albanys Afd is going for 2 to 4 for just about everyone and are more bullish

BOX's AFD is pretty meh with regard to snow accumulations  While they have a highlight in the AFD that "some accumulating snow possible Friday night", they go on to limit that accumulaiton to "a few spots may see an inch or so".

 

I'm not sure where they're pulling the zr into the zone for out here.  Weird.

 

Friday: Rain likely in the morning...then rain and freezing rain likely in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Friday Night: Snow...sleet...rain and freezing rain likely. Cooler with lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

 

33.3/29 at the PIT

 

19/13 here at CID, winds at 28mph, gusting to 36mph.  I'll see what I can take east with me this afternong when I fly to PHL.

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