ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 BOX thinks we all see some snow! DETAILS...THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...AS SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION THU EVENING...IT WILLSLOW TO A STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH UPPER LVL SW-NE FLOW.AS IT DOES SO...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE OVER FROM THE SW. THEFIRST ARRIVING DURING THE MORNING FRI. THERMAL FIELDS REVEAL THATSFC-H9 TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C...SO SUSPECT A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERSWITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE FRI AFTERNOON...ASECOND...AND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL SLIDE E...PULLING IN SOME COLDAIR AS IT DOES SO. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE -2C H92LINE WILL REACH THE S COAST BY ABOUT 12Z SAT. SO...EXPECT A CHANCEOVER TO WINTRY PRECIP FROM N TO S AS THIS WAVE PASSES. THE BULK OFTHE LIFT/QPF WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOMEACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. QPF VALUES AVERAGE AROUND 0.5INCHES...THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF 1-1.5 INCH PWATS BUT A FASTMOVING OPEN WAVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah, Euro looked rather enticing for some wintry weather. Could make for a festive 100th tree lighting in Taunton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah, Euro looked rather enticing for some wintry weather. Could make for a festive 100th tree lighting in Taunton. Was just thinking that, couple inches maybe to get in the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Can't expect miracles or anything clean in this pattern. If we can get a few inches with each event this early...that's all bonus stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 That was the best Euro run yet...but this is still such a fine line that its not surprising that guidance still disagrees with eachother on how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 That was the best Euro run yet...but this is still such a fine line that its not surprising that guidance still disagrees with eachother on how it plays out. But, I have higher confidence now than when I started this thread. It's more than pipe dream in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'm not a fan of these events, especially along the coast waiting on colder air to advect in while hoping precip doesnt dry out first. With that said, the euro is enticing enough that you got to give it a chance, though I'd think the GFS solution is more realistic. Certainly just inland across southern NY, CT, MA there is hope you can pull off a quick burst of accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'm not a fan of these events, especially along the coast waiting on colder air to advect in while hoping precip doesnt dry out first. With that said, the euro is enticing enough that you got to give it a chance, though I'd think the GFS solution is more realistic. Certainly just inland across southern NY, CT, MA there is hope you can pull off a quick burst of accum. Yup...I lean pessimistic with these too. The front goes through and you feel optimistic, but then you wait for hours in the 30s with rain. There will probably be an IP transition in there too...some soundings keep H8 a hair warmer for longer than H85 too. We'll see I guess. I'd lean with the higher terrain of interior CNE/SNE with the best shot for a couple of inches of glop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yup...I lean pessimistic with these too. The front goes through and you feel optimistic, but then you wait for hours in the 30s with rain. There will probably be an IP transition in there too...some soundings keep H8 a hair warmer for longer than H85 too. We'll see I guess. I'd lean with the higher terrain of interior CNE/SNE with the best shot for a couple of inches of glop. I'll take glop if I can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'm not a fan of these events, especially along the coast waiting on colder air to advect in while hoping precip doesnt dry out first. With that said, the euro is enticing enough that you got to give it a chance, though I'd think the GFS solution is more realistic. Certainly just inland across southern NY, CT, MA there is hope you can pull off a quick burst of accum. Yup...I lean pessimistic with these too. The front goes through and you feel optimistic, but then you wait for hours in the 30s with rain. There will probably be an IP transition in there too...some soundings keep H8 a hair warmer for longer than H85 too. We'll see I guess. I'd lean with the higher terrain of interior CNE/SNE with the best shot for a couple of inches of glop. Looks like a lot is hinging upon this second wave developing along the frontal boundary after it's cleared the area being able to pull in some Atl moisture. So timing would be critical as well. If the follow up wave speeds up there won't be enough time to cool the temps enough and if the timing is slowed too much it risks the possibility of be shunted off to the S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 12z NAM has the boundary basically draped from BOS to HFD at 12z Friday...then sagging SE to the Cape by afternoon. probably ends up as a bit of a backwards temp day with readings 45-55 to start then just sort of holding steady before dropping in the afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Dendrite is locking in the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Dendrite is locking in the 12z NAM. Will/Phil/Scott what's your take on Friday up in the hill country? Sunday River, Loon etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Will/Phil/Scott what's your take on Friday up in the hill country? Sunday River, Loon etc? It looks nasty...probably 30s and light rain early in the day and it cools down as the day goes along with rpobably some light snow in the afternoon. Hard forecast because the timing of the front sagging SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 ice storm on the Franken-model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 ice storm on the Franken-model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Dendrite is locking in the 12z NAM. Yeah that impulse has borderline advisory level snows in the southern Greens over into adjacent NH, especially the higher terrain that can switch over a little easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah that impulse has borderline advisory level snows in the southern Greens over into adjacent NH, especially the higher terrain that can switch over a little easier. NAM is holding steady with having the most precip after cold air sneaks in. 12Z GFS looks little better. The fast flow is a killer. Southern Greens do look like a decent place to be if precip doesn't get pushed south and east to quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The SREF snow probs for 1"+ are pretty high across CNE, but I have about as much faith in those at d2-3 as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The SREF snow probs for 1"+ are pretty high across CNE, but I have about as much faith in those at d2-3 as the NAM. Congrats on 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Congrats on 6-10tenths? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 OT but the d3 system isn't bad on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 OT but the d3 system isn't bad on the euro. No it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 OT but the d3 system isn't bad on the euro.we have the dec 6 thread for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro has like a 2-4 or 3-5 type event for much of SNE. About like 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro has like a 2-4 or 3-5 type event for much of SNE. About like 00z looked like C-2" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro has like a 2-4 or 3-5 type event for much of SNE. About like 00z Is that looking through the same goggles that you saw 6-10" for Dendrite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 looked like C-2" to me.From the site I saw it appeared more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 From the site I saw it appeared more what site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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