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December 6-7: Rainy Frontal Passage or a Wintry Wave?


moneypitmike

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Whichever one everyone is talking about dropping some snow. :)

lol.

 

i don't like our chances with the wave coming up friday night / saturday. i don't really like anyone's chances with it, to be honest, but SE MA/Cape will have a particularly tough time as currently modeled, imo. things don't time out much better than they did with the arctic front back in mid-november and this doesn't look nearly as good. 

 

the follow-up system early next week...tough to deny the trends right now which suggest a low impact deal for most of the region..save for probably the ORH hills and Berks points northward. if the cold builds in a bit better, we'd at least see some snow out of it. 

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lol.

 

i don't like our chances with the wave coming up friday night / saturday. i don't really like anyone's chances with it, to be honest, but SE MA/Cape will have a particularly tough time as currently modeled, imo. things don't time out much better than they did with the arctic front back in mid-november and this doesn't look nearly as good. 

 

the follow-up system early next week...tough to deny the trends right now which suggest a low impact deal for most of the region..save for probably the ORH hills and Berks points northward. if the cold builds in a bit better, we'd at least see some snow out of it. 

 

Glad I'm not alone in that thought.

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lol.

 

i don't like our chances with the wave coming up friday night / saturday. i don't really like anyone's chances with it, to be honest, but SE MA/Cape will have a particularly tough time as currently modeled, imo. things don't time out much better than they did with the arctic front back in mid-november and this doesn't look nearly as good. 

 

the follow-up system early next week...tough to deny the trends right now which suggest a low impact deal for most of the region..save for probably the ORH hills and Berks points northward. if the cold builds in a bit better, we'd at least see some snow out of it. 

Even then I am not convinced

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lol.

 

i don't like our chances with the wave coming up friday night / saturday. i don't really like anyone's chances with it, to be honest, but SE MA/Cape will have a particularly tough time as currently modeled, imo. things don't time out much better than they did with the arctic front back in mid-november and this doesn't look nearly as good. 

 

the follow-up system early next week...tough to deny the trends right now which suggest a low impact deal for most of the region..save for probably the ORH hills and Berks points northward. if the cold builds in a bit better, we'd at least see some snow out of it. 

 

Thanks.  I'm not very excited about anything right now so I appreciate your input.

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I would actually look forward to a wintry event as the cold air mass leaves sometime next week.  This event looks mute to the point that we will be lucky to see some backend snowfall.  However the interior will likely see some plowable snowfall if the 18z GFS and NAM are correct as cold air seeps southward in time to change the rain on the front end to snow on the back end.  WSWs out for OKC.

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If we can get a nice 2-3 hour burst, then we can get an inch or so. We need a nice burst though because I always hate relying on the cold air to filter in as the precip is going...a good shot of moderate or better precip usually helps once the boundary layer is just starting to get cold enough.

 

I'm still not very optimistic on this one, and any snow we get I'll treat as a nice bonus...but at least its still hanging around on guidance. The Euro today was actually not bad.

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What will that intense 130+ knot upper level jet divergence do for the precip shield as it heads up this way?  The NAM shows this feature originating over the southwestern US and out over the open Pacific ocean.  The southwesterly upper level jet intensifies as the third wave of precip enters Dallas, TX and then lightens up some but not until it heads over AR with a heavy burst of snow.

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If we can get a nice 2-3 hour burst, then we can get an inch or so. We need a nice burst though because I always hate relying on the cold air to filter in as the precip is going...a good shot of moderate or better precip usually helps once the boundary layer is just starting to get cold enough.

 

I'm still not very optimistic on this one, and any snow we get I'll treat as a nice bonus...but at least its still hanging around on guidance. The Euro today was actually not bad.

 

The last passage is a case in point.  No frozen of note in spite of some models suggesting a bit of a coating.  I'm holding out hope though.

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If we can get a nice 2-3 hour burst, then we can get an inch or so. We need a nice burst though because I always hate relying on the cold air to filter in as the precip is going...a good shot of moderate or better precip usually helps once the boundary layer is just starting to get cold enough.

I'm still not very optimistic on this one, and any snow we get I'll treat as a nice bonus...but at least its still hanging around on guidance. The Euro today was actually not bad.

Snow will be on the ground... Snow White so bright
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