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December 6-7: Rainy Frontal Passage or a Wintry Wave?


moneypitmike

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These kind of events usually display a sneaky element of kindness toward interior ne MA.....2-4". Those appendages of snow from ORH co into ne MA usally work out well here.

Just a guess....anecdotal, and largely based off of past obs, as I have been swamped in work all week.

 

I put you in the area where I thought you would do well overall...but sort of a high stakes setup. One of those deals where we have ranges for a reason. 

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Noticed that too.  Now I'm worried about temps and precip amounts.  Doh!

 

Give it some time... back edge is still all the way back in Indianapolis.  I think you're good for 2-4".

 

I was looking at the Delmar forecast earlier and noticed ALB doesn't switch the Capital District over to all snow until after 3am, so that's still 8 hours away, lol.

 

Tonight:  Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 3am. Low around 27. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

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Give it some time... back edge is still all the way back in Indianapolis. I think you're good for 2-4".

I was looking at the Delmar forecast earlier and noticed ALB doesn't switch the Capital District over to all snow until after 3am, so that's still 8 hours away, lol.

Tonight: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 3am. Low around 27. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

You like 1-3 for our area?
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You like 1-3 for our area?

 

Yeah I don't think anything has changed today.  It was always going to be painfully slow watching it try to change over and pretty much everyone was progged to start as rain anyway. 

 

Basically for your area you've got models showing a good 0.5-0.75" of QPF for this wave, but you're only really interested in the final couple tenths... so don't get hung up on watching it pour for a while.  If anything getting the rain to come down heavily may help try to cool it from the top down, while you also have CAA on surface NW winds.  As Will et al have said, it will all come down to a couple hours late tonight.

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You moved to Stowe? Wtf?

 

lol I knew what he meant.  If I'm associated with anywhere in SNE, its NECT as I visit several times a summer and used to spend 3 months a year there a year growing up.  Plus its fun to try to forecast and look at an area that has no impact on you at this time... very easy to be objective when you have no horse in the race.

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Give it some time... back edge is still all the way back in Indianapolis. I think you're good for 2-4".

I was looking at the Delmar forecast earlier and noticed ALB doesn't switch the Capital District over to all snow until after 3am, so that's still 8 hours away, lol.

Tonight: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 3am. Low around 27. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

I will try to summon my patient side lol. Pretty decent sleet downtown. Was hanging lights at the parlor and sidewalk was getting covered and slippery. Still 35F.

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My guess is its a combo of a few of the mods/ mets . Probably some pm's / texts exchanged behind the back to set it up. It's kind of disturbing that a few folks would be so obsessed that they'd have to make a fake user name up to troll me

Quoted for posterity. What a fantastic conspiracy theory this is.

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how much stock do you put in the grrr, Scott? I wish my wife would respond to my text about ptyoe. I've got to be close to something other than rain if not already. 32.9/32

 

Well it hasn't handled this well for whatever reason so I'm not comfortable using it verbatim. However, at least it's playing catch up and trending better.

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