Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 18z NAM soundings indicate a pretty healthy event for a lot of the region...we'll have to watch this pretty closely over the next 4-5 hours. The sounding even at 03z are really close to parachutes for places like ORH/FIT/BAF...even on the RAP model too. Thanks for the updates. Hoping for a couple of flurries here at the end. Looks warm to me, but maybe we can pull it off just to my NW with some dynamics involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If my understanding is correct, the temperature isotherms tilt to the right as you go up the chart. I've reattached the original sounding with the 0 degree isotherm highlighted in blue. Anything to the left of the 0 degree line is modeled to be below freezing. 131206201749_markup.gif Yup... You got it! Try to download bufkit... An easier way to view the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Here is my forecast http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com/2013/12/first-moderate-storm-of-year-about-to.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If my understanding is correct, the temperature isotherms tilt to the right as you go up the chart. I've reattached the original sounding with the 0 degree isotherm highlighted in blue. Anything to the left of the 0 degree line is modeled to be below freezing. 131206201749_markup.gif Nice! Thanks for the explanation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I've been trying to remember a rain-to-snow event around here that dropped more than an inch or so. Almost all of the events I can think of are early/late season events where the boundary layer started warm and the mid/upper levels were plenty cold. The only other one I can remember is 12/25/2002 in NYC. If this does manage to drop several inches of snow around here, it seems it would be quite anomalous. As Ryan pointed out earlier, the separation between the frontal passage and the wave may be what makes this a little different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Nice! Thanks for the explanation... Glad to help! (And relieved I got it right. Thanks for the Bufkit tip, Ryan.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I've been trying to remember a rain-to-snow event around here that dropped more than an inch or so. Almost all of the events I can think of are early/late season events where the boundary layer started warm and the mid/upper levels were plenty cold. The only other one I can remember is 12/25/2002 in NYC. If this does manage to drop several inches of snow around here, it seems it would be quite anomalous. As Ryan pointed out earlier, the separation between the frontal passage and the wave may be what makes this a little different. I remember quite a few of them up here in the 90s. They're tough to pull off outside of the west slope upslope areas, but I wouldn't call them rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Temp of 44, DP of 34 here. From my understanding, when precip starts, the air temp should fall toward the DP, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Temp of 44, DP of 34 here. From my understanding, when precip starts, the air temp should fall toward the DP, correct?Theoretically toward the wetbulb temp.38/34 up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Temp of 44, DP of 34 here. From my understanding, when precip starts, the air temp should fall toward the DP, correct? The dew point will also rise. Roughly every 2 degree temp drop will see the dew point rise a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Nam looks like a pipe bomb... N ct hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Pretty nice summation here: Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN7m Precipitation moves back in this evening, many in New England make change to snow either side of 10pm (on average) Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN7m A 9-12 hour snow event for most of the Northeast tonight/Sat AM - shipping out of New England 7-10AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Agree with Mr. Noyes on his points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The dew point will also rise. Roughly every 2 degree temp drop will see the dew point rise a degree. That's really cool to know. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That's really cool to know. Thanks! Plug'em in.http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_dewpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Seems like this has trended in the right direction for snow..."yay!" (Peter Griffin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 9-12 hr? That's pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Weird. All of you say it has trended good, but KALB keeps lowering stuff, along with the RAP/HRRR combo. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Weird. All of you say it has trended good, but KALB keeps lowering stuff, along with the RAP/HRRR combo. Hmmm...Albany WFO was so high they had nowhere to go but down.This storm has a limit too. It won't just keep getting better. We aren't getting 5-10" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Weird. All of you say it has trended good, but KALB keeps lowering stuff, along with the RAP/HRRR combo. Hmmm... Some on here had artificially lowered board expectations... and then suddenly the Euro shows a few inches from Worcester to BOS and people jump on the band wagon. Since yesterday the thrust of the precip shield on model progs has moved slightly south from SVT to the heart of SNE. That's a good trend for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 box updated snowfall map.. ill take 2 to 4 and run with it. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 9-12 hr? That's pushing it.Maybe he means it snows somewhere in New England for that long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Albany WFO was so high they had nowhere to go but down. This storm has a limit too. It won't just keep getting better. We aren't getting 5-10" lol. Come on, power of positive thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Come on, power of positive thinking!Wish hard enough and it could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Someone like dave is in game for 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 looking at the radar some areas are going to get some really good snowfall rates for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Albany WFO was so high they had nowhere to go but down. This storm has a limit too. It won't just keep getting better. We aren't getting 5-10" lol. Ya...thats pretty clear for the reasonable snow hounds. a coating trending to 1-3" wont get us streaking but turning chit white around the yard makes the nipples tender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Cooling off quickly, Down to 35.8F, Wet bulb already down to 30.7F, If only we had the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 weird just went to wunderground to check temps around the area and they have this for my area tonight seems off compared to nws usually they are the same Friday Night A mix of wintry precipitation this evening. Then periods of snow expected overnight. Low 31F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Snow and ice accumulating 3 to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Theoretically toward the wetbulb temp. 38/34 up here That's one of the values I include in my sig just for that reason. If I want to know what the chance of snow is at either location, I look at that value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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