Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December 6-7: Rainy Frontal Passage or a Wintry Wave?

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 703
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

Posted
Posted

The snow will have a hard time sticking to anything paved, especially with the recent warm temps.

 

 

My thoughts.. 

Boston: c-1"

Worcester:1-2"

Lawrence:2-3"

Hartford:1-2"

MPM/Hubbdave:2-4"

Tolland:1-2"

Ray:1-2"

Scott:c-1"

 

Basically anyone north of the pike with a little elevations away from the city seem to have a shot at 2-4". Boston will struggle in this setup to see much especially within the city. Suburbs like Jerry in Brookline and Don in Arlington Heights may see a couple inches. Difficult to guess exact amounts due to the sneaky warm layers that may come through at times aloft further north than originally thought.

 

not bad, maybe a bit higher for Ray/ORH area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Lol

At the rate it may come down for 1-3 hours and it being the middle of the night, should have no problem sticking to everything.

In fact, a little rain before hand should just make the roads even worse, as there's nothing as bad as rain to snow while temps drop below freezing and you get that crusty frozen crap on the roads. Light rain to moisten the tree branches up and then paste snow to that should create a very atheistically pleasing snowfall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

At the rate it may come down for 1-3 hours and it being the middle of the night, should have no problem sticking to everything.

In fact, a little rain before hand should just make the roads even worse, as there's nothing as bad as rain to snow while temps drop below freezing and you get that crusty frozen crap on the roads. Light rain to moisten the tree branches up and then paste snow to that should create a very atheistically pleasing snowfall.

Yeah I mean how many times over the years has that thought been proven wrong. it would stick to the rds in April..much less early Dec

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Pouring rain transitioning over to snow, I don't see more than a bit of slop on the roads by morning that the sun quickly melts.

Monday morning looks ugly on the other hand for driving to work.

I guess it'll depend on SFC temps, but if you slip to 30-31F during the snow burst, the roads will get ugly quickly as that water freezes. If it's snowing but at 34F that's another story.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

Posted
Posted

SNOWFALL TRICKY AS MAX QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF THE COLDER AIR.
CURRENT THINKING IS AN AREA OF 2-4" ACCUM NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
AND WEST OF I495 WITH LOCALLY 5-6" POSSIBLE IN THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS FITS WELL WITH SREF PROBS WHICH HAVE HIGHEST PROBS OF >4" IN
THE BERKSHIRES. AMOUNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS INTO S NH WHICH WILL
BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM. WE WILL GO WITH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MA.
ELSEWHERE...WE HAVE COATING TO 2 INCHES EXCEPT FOR THE S COAST
WHERE RAIN WILL END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUM EXPECTED.

 

Sounds treacherous, better get out the snowblower.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

Posted
Posted

I guess it'll depend on SFC temps, but if you slip to 30-31F during the snow burst, the roads will get ugly quickly as that water freezes. If it's snowing but at 34F that's another story.

 

I'd like to see a nice snowfall accumulate on frozen ground. But this will fall on warm, rain saturated ground.

 

I'm hoping for very little accumulation, so I can finish my X-mas decorations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I'd like to see a nice snowfall accumulate on frozen ground. But this will fall on warm, rain saturated ground.

I'm hoping for very little accumulation, so I can finish my X-mas decorations.

It all depends on how hard it comes down. If you get true Moderate Snow 1/2sm vis for an extended period of time it will accumulate nicely. If it's like 1-3 mile -SN then you may have a point. My general rule of thumb is if your vis is restricted to under a mile for an hour or more, you'll have no problem accumulating...and once you get that initial coating down, it's snow falling on snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Interesting to see the dew at BDL down to 36 already

 

PSF 37/31

it's going to be a long slow process i think. you have to go all the way back to NE OH/NW PA/SW NY to find sub 32F temps. dews are fairly low in CNY...but it's somewhat stale (36/37F at SYR). they'll probably drop if they get into precip but it's not a typical fropa today.

 

either way, the lowest 2 - 3k cool faster tonight. the big push of moisture with the SW flow aloft really keeps the region above the boundary layer rather neutral in terms of temp change for a quite a while. the NW flow at the surface is able to sneak under that..which is why some places may deal with quite a bit of sleet/mix/back-and-forth deal. 

 

of course, this will seem like a DD post...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

I'd like to see a nice snowfall accumulate on frozen ground. But this will fall on warm, rain saturated ground.

 

I'm hoping for very little accumulation, so I can finish my X-mas decorations.

I hope you get your xmas decrorations finished

 

This has a look of a bit of sleet mixed precip to me in your area. Temps and dews are currently falling as cold front passed thru and I think when rain starts it will be quite chilly at 850'

Link to comment
Share on other sites
joey2002

joey2002

Posted
Posted

It all depends on how hard it comes down. If you get true Moderate Snow 1/2sm vis for an extended period of time it will accumulate nicely. If it's like 1-3 mile -SN then you may have a point. My general rule of thumb is if your vis is restricted to under a mile for an hour or more, you'll have no problem accumulating...and once you get that initial coating down, it's snow falling on snow.

 

Yup, exactly. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

it's going to be a long slow process i think. you have to go all the way back to NE OH/NW PA/SW NY to find sub 32F temps. dews are fairly low in CNY...but it's somewhat stale (36/37F at SYR). they'll probably drop if they get into precip but it's not a typical fropa today.

either way, the lowest 2 - 3k cool faster tonight. the big push of moisture with the SW flow aloft really keeps the region above the boundary layer rather neutral in terms of temp change for a quite a while. the NW flow at the surface is able to sneak under that..which is why some places may deal with quite a bit of sleet/mix/back-and-forth deal.

of course, this will seem like a DD post...

I've been surprised that we haven't really dropped at all today up here at any elevation. In fact it's gotten warmer today in the low elevations below 1000ft but that's probably just the diurnal trend.

I was thinking we'd be like 5-8F colder at 6pm than it was at 6am, but it's still mid-30s in the valley, 31F base of mountain and 24F at 4k. Exactly where it was pre-dawn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

To respond to the subtle but not so subtle trollers., I'm only expecting 1-2 spot 3 in my area

Good call Kevin.

 

It's so bad in here. How bad is it? No sarcasm, no weenies allowed. Only inflated buns that always hedge and call victory in obvious busts.  

 

Calling for a coating to a couple of inches is always safe... but one has to declare they sometimes over perform big-time.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

SNOWFALL TRICKY AS MAX QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF THE COLDER AIR.

CURRENT THINKING IS AN AREA OF 2-4" ACCUM NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE

AND WEST OF I495 WITH LOCALLY 5-6" POSSIBLE IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THIS FITS WELL WITH SREF PROBS WHICH HAVE HIGHEST PROBS OF >4" IN

THE BERKSHIRES. AMOUNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS INTO S NH WHICH WILL

BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM. WE WILL GO WITH WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MA.

ELSEWHERE...WE HAVE COATING TO 2 INCHES EXCEPT FOR THE S COAST

WHERE RAIN WILL END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WITH LITTLE TO

NO ACCUM EXPECTED.

 

Sounds treacherous, better get out the snowblower.

 

 

I'd like to see a nice snowfall accumulate on frozen ground. But this will fall on warm, rain saturated ground.

 

I'm hoping for very little accumulation, so I can finish my X-mas decorations.

 

Last Saturday there was less snow yet it led to multiple accidents across the region.  It doesn't take a lot, especially if it's wet and been above freezing temps drop below freezing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

looking at obs it would seem elevations 800-850' plus have best shot tonite, that is why I don't really see NE mass in the game with the central and western mass potential. I would think BL temps will rob NE mass of a cpl hrs decent precip rates/or accums while Will or Hubbdave is ripping

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

looking at obs it would seem elevations 800-850' plus have best shot tonite, that is why I don't really see NE mass in the game with the central and western mass potential. I would think BL temps will rob NE mass of a cpl hrs decent precip rates/or accums while Will or Hubbdave is ripping

Middle sex county won't have the same amounts, but they are in the game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I've been surprised that we haven't really dropped at all today up here at any elevation. In fact it's gotten warmer today in the low elevations below 1000ft but that's probably just the diurnal trend.

I was thinking we'd be like 5-8F colder at 6pm than it was at 6am, but it's still mid-30s in the valley, 31F base of mountain and 24F at 4k. Exactly where it was pre-dawn.

it'll be interesting to see the 00z soundings from ALB and other pts. that should give us a bit of a feel for how well the upstairs layers are cooling relative to model guidance expectations. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...